Just accepted by Australasian Philosophical Review: "Factual Difference-Making is Equivalent to a Counterfactual Theory". philsci-archive.pitt.edu/25508/. A commentary to a theory of actual causation by Mario Günther and Holger Andreas.

When reading the literature on the Two-Envelope "Paradox" I got annoyed by how much confusion is created by treating probabilities very informally. Glad to see that my former maths teacher @gill1109.bsky.social agrees! (doi.org/10.1111/anzs...)

Trying to get Deepseek to talk about Xi Jinping proves challenging...

Contrapositives are for cowards. Behold.

Good read. But how do we get probabilistic explanation without metaphysical chances? On the below account "The ice cube melted because the chance of this happening was high" becomes "The ice cube melted because my beliefs have certain symmetries leading to a high credence". That can't be right!