Great discussions at last week's #AIECE, Brussels: resilient #global #growth, #tariff passthrough, #EU #forecast updates, #ECB #policy insights, and fresh work on #productivity & tariff-shock modelling. Thanks to all speakers & hosts. aiece.org/general-meet... See you in Stockholm in spring 2026.

🎉 Our paper “Seeing and Hearing is Believing” is conditionally accepted at the European Economic Review! We show that #audiovisual #centralbank #communication—especially video—improves #inflation‐expectation updating. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #research #economics #monetarypolicy

Great discussions at the #RealTime #Economics Conference @bundesbank.de (Eltville, 23–25 Oct)! Enjoyed exchanges on new #methods, #data, #nowcasting, & #forecasting with great colleagues. #research #macroeconomics Poster link 👉 drive.google.com/file/d/1OWvY...

Great to have been back in #Munich for the CESifo #Macroeconomics & #Survey #Data Conference at ifo Institute — soaked up great talks and enjoyed #Bavarian vibes! drive.google.com/file/d/1qF4r...

Exciting week at @kofeth.bsky.social hosting #Uzbekistan’s Center for #Economic #Research and Reforms! 🚀 Deep dive into #macro #nowcasting & short-term #forecasting: DFM, MIDAS, ML, #data, R coding for #GDP nowcasts.

Global #growth to #slow in H2 2024, but #rebound in 2025 on policy easing, rising real wages & #German fiscal push for #Europe. #GDP forecasts (%): 2025/26: 🇺🇸1.7/1.8, 🇨🇳4.9/4.5, 🇪🇺1.5/1.6, 🇩🇪0.3/1.2, 🇬🇧1.4/1.3, 🇫🇷0.7/1.1, 🇮🇹0.6/0.8, 🌍2.8/2.7. kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts... @kofeth.bsky.social

Great meeting Dimitris Georgarakos (@ecb.europa.eu) at @kofeth.bsky.social #Research #seminar: #Randomized #scenario #survey #experiment shows: #geopolitical #risk → #households expect negative effects on #finances → cut #consumption. With Gorodnichenko, Coibion & Kenny: www.nber.org/papers/w34195

Great pre-event for #KOF Fall 2025 #Forecast! Interesting #exchange with journalists from Tages-Anzeiger, Finanz und Wirtschaft, and AWP. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Hans Gersbach presenting on #Swiss & #international #trade, & how to react to recent #Trump #tariffs. kof.ethz.ch/en/news-and-...

The #NowcastingLab presents the latest #GDP #Forecast for #Brazil! 📊 By Lucas Gabriel Martins de Oliveira (#macroeconomic #forecasting). Check it out: nowcastinglab.org/assets/brazi... More background: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/b...

#International #macroeconomy at #crossroads: Pressing issues: #Europe: Mixed signals from latest #indicators. Will #recovery stall before it turns into #upswing? #USA: #Labor market shows weakness. Higher #tariffs & tighter #immigration put pressure on #costs & #prices. Run out of steam?

The #holiday season is behind us, and many of us are settling back into #work. Wishing you a #productive and #rewarding finish to the year!

News from #KOF #Nowcasting Lab (nowcastinglab.org): Reached unexpected "milestone": our #computing processes consumed so many #MATLAB #licenses that entire system came to a halt. Full story on our #blog: blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/07/11/h... @kofeth.bsky.social @mathworks.bsky.social

#KOF Summer 2025 #Forecast round has started. #Global #macroeconomic #outlook on Monday & #Swiss #economic outlook today. Top topic (again): How does #trade #conflict affect the #economy in short & long run? @kofeth.bsky.social Pictured below: Dr. Alexander Rathke, a master of forecasting

More impressions of the #Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo at Statistics Norway.

Impressions from Day 1 of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes #Meeting in #Oslo at Statistics Norway Look at the #employment rate of refugees in Poland as compared to #Switzerland and #Germany! Presentation by Marcin Klucznik (Polish Economic Institute). @kofeth.bsky.social

#Meeting of the #AIECE Association of #Economic #Research Institutes this week in #Oslo (May, 15-16), hosted by #StatisticsNorway. Two days packed with #presentations & #discussions on the #macroeconomic #outlook for #Europe and selected structural topics. @kofeth.bsky.social

#Forecasting #NACE Activities in the #Eurostat Structural Business Statistics blognowcastinglab.wordpress.com/2025/05/09/n... Excited to work, joint with Maurizio Daniele, as Experts on behalf of @ec.europa.eu Competence Centre on Composite #Indicators and Scoreboards (JRC-COIN). #eu #kof #ethz

Another wonderful workshop last week: #Machine #Learning #Economic #Forecasting and #Nowcasting Workshop at #Copenhagen Business School organized by @striaukas.bsky.social Presented on: An Observation-Driven Mixed-Frequency VAR Model With Closed-Form Solution drive.google.com/file/d/1CXzK...

Great to have participated in the #Macro & #Financial #Econometrics Workshop at U #Heidelberg organized by Christian Conrad #research #economics #forecasting @kofeth.bsky.social Photo impressions below:

Dan Murphy (danpmurphy.com) at @kofeth.bsky.social BB Seminar: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #Housing and non-housing #consumption are complements. #Households in smaller homes save more. Denser countries → higher #saving, lower #rates. Thought-provoking #research! @ethzurich.bsky.social

#KOF #International #Forecasts Spring 2025: kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts... #US will grow below potential as #consumer #spending & #investment weaken due to #tariffs & #uncertainty. #Europe eyes #upswing despite tariff threat; #Germany sees #fiscal boost from end 2025. #Risks from tariff #escalation.

Wonderful #Conference on #Real-Time #Data Analysis, #Methods, and Applications in #Prague!! Thank you Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI for the local organization. drive.google.com/file/d/1sIZ9... real-time-economics.org/wp-content/u... #economics #research #macroeconomics @kofeth.bsky.social

#Macroeconomic #forecast process at @kofeth.bsky.social started with discussion of #international #economic #outlook. One key topic: #Fiscal #stimulus plans in #Germany. How much? When? #Multiplier size? --- Will take a while to materialize, but then #growth effects will be strong temporarily.

Interesting #Macro & #Finance #Roundtable by Anjeza Kadilli (HEG) and Reto Cueni (Vontobel) Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank) presenting on: Implications of #Geoeconomic #Fragmentation for Bystanders cepr.org/publications... Good discussion among the participants! #research #policy #geoeconomics

"Wir könnten jetzt in einen regelrechten Handelskrieg geraten" warnt KOF-Ökonom Heiner Mikosch @hmikosch.bsky.social im Beitrag der Tagesschau @SRF angesichts der von den USA erhobenen Zölle gegen Kanada und Mexiko www.srf.ch/play/tv/-/vi...

#Research talk by @iyotzov.bsky.social (BoE) at @kofeth.bsky.social: How Curvy is the Phillips Curve? - Convex, but only for high #inflation #firms (cf. figure). www.nber.org/papers/w33234 Thanx @lukashack.bsky.social & @eneabaselgia.bsky.social! Pic: Ivan, Remo Gurtner & @hmikosch.bsky.social:

Mein erster Post auf #Bluesky: Was ist von Donald Trumps "Zolldrohstrategie" zu halten? Hier ein Statement dazu in #SRF 10 vor 10 letzte Woche: www.srf.ch/play/tv/10-v... Ein knappes Textmemo zum Thema: drive.google.com/file/d/1_FTb... #Zoll #USA #EU #Trump #KOF #ETHZ