There’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye. youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?...

Ukraine keeps tricking Russia - and Russia keeps falling for it. Short term? Russia loses men and materiel. Long term? Russia loses something much more important - their confidence to exploit legitimate battlefield opportunities, leaving them psychologically paralyzed. youtu.be/pWvhRNbzxuk?...

Predicted this months ago. Ukraine knows the value of its data to training the AI weapons of the future. They don’t have to give that to the west for free - especially to countries like the U.S. if we keep insulting and gaslighting them for defending themselves. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Ukraine’s recent actions against Russia could be much more significant than most people realize. It might look like “more of the same” to the untrained eye, but to me it looks like a decisive shift and a targeted strategy. youtu.be/ZuPxOe6bSgM?...

When Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions. Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened. Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.” History repeats itself.

Much is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage. Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet. They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries. That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.

The current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times. “Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.” No surprise. I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.

If Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.” Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.

Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history. We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.

By agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them. It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.

In Ukraine, conventional weapons are losing relevance in favor of drone warfare. Yet Europe and the U.S. continue to stockpile conventional munitions for a war that may or may not ever happen. It would be better to send more to Ukraine now while they still have a punch. youtu.be/icCwKBjfBkU?...

People keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens. Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.

Russians: “Ukraine isn’t able to siege Crimea, Paul. You don’t know what you’re talking about.” Meanwhile, Ukrainians: www.reuters.com/world/europe...

These are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner. I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now. We wasted a lot of lives playing politics. apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC...

China’s military doctrine is based on misdirection - and for two decades they have been gesturing wildly at Taiwan so everyone would see. What happens when you put two and two together, and combine a Russian war in the west with intense historical grievances in the east? youtu.be/WMgUhZTNPRE?...

Russia failed to read the 33 strategies of war.

Big milestone today! Thanks to all my subscribers!

Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half. That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know. Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.

Not only can Crimea be sieged, it IS being sieged. But because it looks different than a lot of people expect, many have missed the significance of what’s happened there. More than that, even the Russian military has already pulled back from Crimea in many important ways youtu.be/wzWjnZte6dI?...

I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions. They never do. The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong. That’s how you know you’re over the target.

The most overlooked aspects of warfare are often sociological. A lot of people will miss the negative religious implications for the Russian Orthodox Church of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake striking with an epicenter next to Russia’s nuclear naval base. That and a lot more: youtu.be/TwSIL-wIHgw?...

Not to worry guys. It’s not really an earthquake. It’s just a Special Seismic Operation.

Russian TV began threatening Alaska again. Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area. A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north. Irony sucks if you’re Russian.

Russians are currently telling me how Ukrainian strikes on Russian rail lines are irrelevant and won’t make a difference. In the next breath they will tell me how Ukraine would lose the war almost instantly if Pokrovsk fell, because it’s a rail hub.

Ukraine has been crushing Russian supply lines lately. It’s already largely stopped Russia’s summer offensive. And there’s very little Russia can do about it. Russia is too large to fully defend. All it takes is a single strike on a rail line to completely stop deliveries. youtu.be/x0nvJ1Ehi-M?...

It’s now literally true that the Russian government has collapsed in many different regions. That’s because Russia is failing to fulfill the most basic aspects of what a government does - they cannot provide adequate law enforcement. Russia is literally descending into anarchy youtu.be/P7IyrpY8tF8

When Russia claims the U.S. “staged a coup in 2014” to “oust Russian influence from Ukraine”, do they not realize this only implies Russia was trying to do the same thing, but failed? Not only is this “coup” a lie, but they aren’t even mad that Ukraine was toppled, only that Russian influence was

Those who say it’s “impossible” for Ukraine to retake Crimea simply haven’t thought about the problem for very long. There’s many paths to Ukrainian victory there - most of them even being relatively bloodless. Sound too good to be true? Find out more in my latest video: youtu.be/y3onBGqcHHk?...

Two weeks ago I made a video about how the United States would NEED Ukraine’s drones to win wars of the future. I was told I was wrong, that the U.S. couldn’t possibly be less advanced than Ukraine in any way. Now today, it’s announced that the U.S. indeed wants a drone partnership with Ukraine…

I correctly predicted that the recent U.S. pause in aid to Ukraine would lead to today’s announcement. Lots of people got this one wrong for various reasons. That doesn’t mean I’m totally thrilled about it. Check out my recent video for why this excites AND frustrates me. youtu.be/w0D93ndf0cE?...

Over three years into a literal war, I haven’t heard a single American or European politician talk about ever “invading Russia.” Not once. And yet Russia will swear that them invading Ukraine was “defensive” to protect from “NATO aggression.”

Check out my full length interview on Silicon Curtain to get my take on lots of important issues at this stage in the war. It was great talking with Jonathan. youtu.be/jCLQRzuPbqg?...

Americans will cheer when they watch the lighting of the beacons in “Return of the King.” “The beacons are lit! Gondor calls for aid!” “And Rohan will answer!” *loud cheers* And then in the same breath look at Ukraine’s war against Russia and mutter “Yeah, but helping them would cost us MONEY!”

There’s a clear path forward to a lasting peace in Ukraine, if we’re willing to grasp it. youtu.be/nDqn27gl2vg?...

With hundreds of thousands of views per video, I rarely see any substantive rebuttals to any of my research on the war in Ukraine. Lots of claims that “Russia is winning” or “This is just propaganda” but that’s as far as it goes. If Russia is winning, why is it so hard for people to explain why?

So many reports that Iran’s nuclear capabilities may NOT have actually been destroyed on the same day the ceasefire was announced. It seems silly to have rushed to declare victory before results were in. Or? It could be insincere posturing. “We really wanted fast peace, I promise. Not our fault.”

When a U.S. Presidential candidate campaigns on “no more wars”… It’s a sure sign they will probably start or join a war at some point in their term.

The trouble these days seems to be getting people to believe the reality we can see with our own eyes of the incompetent Russian military struggling to hang on in Ukraine for over 3 years. Instead, many still believe in the fictional Russian military prowess portrayed in Red Dawn and Call Of Duty.

Trump accidentally said the quiet part out loud. Threatened to cancel Elon’s contracts for insulting him. Implying the contracts exist because of personal loyalty. Simple. If Elon gives the best service, he should keep the public contracts. If not, why did he have them in the first place?

See if you can spot the difference: To retaliate against Ukraine hitting their *military bases* with drones and embarrassing them, Russia ramps up their bombing attacks on Ukrainian *cities*.

A few days ago I made a video explaining how the way Trump was using tariffs (and other things) was a dangerous step towards a centrally-run U.S. economy. A U.S. court agreed, saying Trump’s position does NOT give him the power to unilaterally impose wide sweeping tariffs. youtu.be/9bdrhvWhHKI?...

@paulwarburg.bsky.social is just churning out one brilliant analysis after the other. youtube.com/watch?v=pZlp...

Paul - absolutely love your videos. I just watched the one on Russia-China dynamics… and it beautifully matches one I did nearly 2 weeks ago: Title: China can now cannibalise Russia. …all about China’s control over a war-weakened Russia, Siberian depop, Outer Manchuria, resources, trade routes 👇

A lot of people don’t understand the clear economic fundamentals that can easily trigger a direct chain of cause and effect from the U.S. trade wars to the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. I explain them fully in today’s video: youtu.be/FSLVs0SqJQY?...

One of the reasons I never feared war with China was because we were their biggest market. It would have been foolish for China to start a war and endure such massive economic damage. Now that we’re intent on the economic damage, even before the war, the sky is the limit. youtu.be/43dys6UMIYg?...

Russia’s current situation has multi-layered parallels with what led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. I explain: Russia Can't Survive the Oil Price Crash youtu.be/CESHnNcC5gs

Trump was offered a zero for zero tariff deal by the EU - BEFORE he implemented the latest round of tariffs. He’s not pausing them now to “negotiate better trade deals.” Those trade deals were already on the table. He’s pausing them because the backlash has been so severe.

I explain in depth why Trump’s tariffs are NOT the reason TSMC is investing in the United States. I believe in giving credit where credit is due. But I also believe in NOT taking credit when it’s not due (it’s a ‘small’ thing called integrity). youtu.be/YHd0HBURR5w?...

There’s a reason Russians in Moscow still feel “prosperous.” And it’s NOT because the country is doing so well. As empires get closer to collapse, work is done to make those close to the top feel ‘normal’. It’s a paranoid survival strategy. And it doesn’t last long. youtu.be/Rxg5p4JV8W8?...

After posting this video, I’ve already received emails from American military tech executives confirming that they have in fact lost their market overnight, and are now having to consider shuttering their doors. The damage of “whiplash” policy is real. youtu.be/GgtdDEV0pfA?...