After headline-grabbing upsets from Cape Verde and co, there is a belief that the “floor” of international football has risen. Not sure this is true. Data shows underdogs have long been competitive at World Cups, the 48-team version just gave them a wider platform to show it.

Keeping up with this World Cup - it's been a struggle (Also love the random assortment of KO times at the 1930 tournament. A 12:45 𝒂𝒏𝒅 a 12:50, for some reason)

A host of unrecognisable faces in last night’s Brazil-Morocco game for those of us who consume football entirely through the Panini sticker-album prism.

South Africa compensating for a lack of (birthday) cards with their ill-discipline tonight imo

The pain of Ireland’s playoff defeat, which had just started to subside, has come roaring back with vengeance. Anyway, here is your tactical guide to Group A, kicking off tonight and including Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and those dastardly Czechs Read for free here:

We launched our comprehensive and visually stunning interactive World Cup player profiles page today. A huge amount of work went into this from loads of people. I wrote about Bruno Fernandes, among others. Check out Stars of Soccer for free here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/int...

It took an inordinate amount of time to collect the data and make this graphic, but at least we now have conclusive proof that Sweden is, in fact, colder than Texas

“We’re a lot better in both boxes. We’re defending our box a lot better and we’re managing to be clinical in the other box,” Harry Maguire said, after Manchester United's victory against Brentford. @conor-oneill.bsky.social with the numbers showing that Maguire knows what he is talking about.

Liam Rosenior’s conservative tactics at Brighton felt like a last-ditch roll of the dice for a desperate coach who is running out of moves. They were muddled, misguided and ultimately a horrendous mistake. @conor-oneill.bsky.social breaks down the chaos. 🔗nyti.ms/4vZMcJc

Using historical ClubElo ratings, I’ve put together what I think is the most comprehensive analysis of Champions League draw difficulty. Arsenal’s draw is certainly kind, but it is unlikely to challenge these guys in the easiest-route stakes. www.nytimes.com/athletic/710...

Newcastle’s trip to Qarabag tonight is the furthest any PL side has ever travelled in the Champions League. Took a look at how English teams fare on their long-distance journeys, in a CL campaign that has already logged 100,000+ more air miles than 2024-25. www.nytimes.com/athletic/705...

The FA Cup draw is random, but that doesn't mean some clubs don't get it easier than others @conor-oneill.bsky.social has crunched the numbers: 🔴 Arsenal's challenging third round history 🔵 Chelsea's difficult passage to 2020 final 🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/704...

High blocks, low blocks, everywhere you look...blocks. Using data from SkillCorner, I break down how each side likes to set up out of possession, and what it means for their playing style. @theathleticfc.bsky.social Piece here: www.nytimes.com/athletic/703...

NEW POD 🚨 All about the weather! ☀️ How does it impact football, tactics, play styles? 🌧️ With @zonal-marking.bsky.social, @conor-oneill.bsky.social, @markcarey93.bsky.social & @michaeljbailey.bsky.social pod.fo/e/388f85

Teams are taking fewer shots from outside the box than ever in the Premier League, yet long-range goals are at their highest since 2013–14. Explored why this is happening: www.nytimes.com/athletic/702...

Dominic Calvert-Lewis has scored six goals from a tiny part of the pitch — the smallest goalscoring area of any player in Europe this season. @thom-harris.bsky.social breaks down why he is so effective at creating chances there. 🔗 www.nytimes.com/athletic/691...

Used Liverpool’s tendency to “win” games on xG as a topical Trojan horse to debunk the concept of winning on xG, and why xPoints tables often produce league standings that are clearly nonsense www.nytimes.com/athletic/688...

If the Republic of Ireland's defeat to Armenia was unthinkable, then defeating Portugal 2-0 and coming from behind to beat Hungary 3-2 and snatch a World Cup play-off place stretched reality to breaking point. @conor-oneill.bsky.social on one of the most dramatic weeks in Irish footballing history.

Managed to tear myself away from the Parrott goal on infinite loop long enough to write about Ireland’s madcap week. A remarkable resurrection. www.nytimes.com/athletic/681...

Plugged out of the football matrix during my hols this week, but wrote a piece on managerial sackings. Ranked sackings based on how deserved they were, measured the new manager bounce, and showed why their employment is most shaky on Mondays in December www.nytimes.com/athletic/668...

Lots of cautionary tales of Irish youngsters failing to make the grade in England, but it really is hard to manage expectations with Mason Melia. Profiled the Tottenham-bound St Pat's striker, easily the best young talent I have ever seen in LOI www.nytimes.com/athletic/670...

Maiden bluesky post! I analysed shot-blocking in the Premier League. Looked at: - Arsenal/Liverpool’s contrasting approach to defending long-range efforts - Why Man Utd struggle inside the box - The PL leading the way in old-school, bodies-on-the-line defending www.nytimes.com/athletic/664...