Trump gets US soybean farmers winning again........... The market immediately falls.

I played the Wheat Trading Simulator and finished with $9848.95 (Realised P/L: $-151.05) Period: 7/04/2023 to 4/05/2023 Try it yourself! whitelaw.net.au/wheat_tradin... Seems accurate to RL. 10 day price crash broke the channel and took my fully exposed position with it! Lucky 2 day recovery end!

Bored? Help us out by testing our new wheat trading simulator It's just a bit of fun, but uses historical data. Can you trade the market? episode3.net/conversation... #agsky #econsky

Two in 10,000: The vital context of animal welfare that the Guardian didn’t include We add the context to the story. Read more on the link below episode3.net/conversation...

CPI for Aussie food items from Q1, 2024 to Q1, 2025 shows some big price increases at the retail level over the last year. #agsky #econsky

The non-religious population in Australia versus the vote for parties other than the coalition/ALP. Correlation does not equal causation. #auspol

The Australian election is over; the next campaign starts soon. I thought I would share some thoughts I had over the weekend. The political landscape is likely to be very different in the future. I put my thoughts into this article on LinkedIn. www.linkedin.com/pulse/ag-pos...

AgWatchers Podcast: A complacent nation with John Blackburn AO. John is a retired vice-air marshal. Is Australia at risk in the event of a conflict? This sobering episode is up there with our best content. Apple: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/a... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/55yx...

People on the left: "There is no way Dutton can win, no one I know is voting for him" People on the right: "There is no way Albo can win, no one I know is voting for him" It's a bubble, people tend to frequent with others of the same political persuasion. #auspol

Five reports of #varroa mite in Victoria in the past 16 weeks, incl one north of #SwanHill. Much too close for comfort. #beesky #agsky bees.agriculture.vic.gov.au/Public/Varroa

"The importance of independence from your analyst." I wrote a short piece on LinkedIn, you can read it on the link below. linkedin.com/pulse/import...

Thanks James Nason for a detailed description in this Beef Central article (including charts) of my presentation to the Australian Wagyu Association annual conference in Perth last week. #agsky www.beefcentral.com/news/8-chart...

Reporting on this is all over the place. 🧐 Canberra confirms Indonesia won't host Russian planes at air force base #agsky #Australia #Putin www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...

Can't wait to tell farmers about the fake feral pigs and fake sticky nightshade in their pastures 🫣

I hear a lot of people talking about Australia becoming a Muslim country. It isn't. Australia is becoming a non-religious country.

Trumpet of Patriots is running on a platform of 'commonsense policies for all Australians'—although potentially not for agriculture. The leader and funder of the Trumpets has called for an end to our 'fake biosecurity rules'

This chart combines the AUDUSD forecasts for 36 major financial institutions. A falling Aussie dollar will be beneficial, but only to an extent. If it falls to an extreme, say below 50¢, it would likely only be caused by a substantial economic shock lowering demand for our produce

Let them eat cake.

I wrote a piece on agricultural subsidies and how Australian farmers largely go it alone. You can read it on my LinkedIn below: www.linkedin.com/pulse/austra... #agsky

Australia has one of the lowest rates of subsidies for agriculture in the world. I dont think Australia is guilty of trade manipulation through subsidies. #agsky

Lucky to record a short podcast with the federal Aust ag minister Julie Collins while at the AMIC conference on the Gold Coast. Listen to her here #agsky podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/a...

This podcast was recorded prior to the Trump inauguration but speaks a lot about what may happen. Pleased to see that what was discussed has aged reasonably well. #agsky agmstr.com/3XRivKU

A great reminder from my @episode3.net colleague @wheatwatcher.bsky.social about the Trump tariff risks to China and Australian agricultural trade exposures to a potential Chinese economic downturn #agsky #econsky www.farmonline.com.au/story/893341...

China has been hit with a 34% tariff, which stacks on top of the existing tariffs, giving them an overall 54% tariff on Chinese goods in the United States. Read the rest on the link episode3.net/grain/market... #econsky #agsky

I've been looking through a bit of data for a project im working on that revolves around a lot of historical Australian data. I thought this was interesting.

If you look around the world, there is no correlation between consumer spending on food and consumer spending on drinks/cigs. Even when you remove countries that don't drink for religious reasons, the correlation remains very low. #agsky #econsky

CBOT Wheat down A$4, and down A$10 from last week. The biggest news was the naval ceasefire on the black sea. Trump has also agreed to restore Russian access to the world for their grain and fertilizer exports. #agsky #econsky

An important quote about the importance of trade.

Beef imports into Japan lifted 5% in 2024. Top supplier was Aust at 48% then USA on 35%. Aust beef was 12% cheaper than US assisting Aust market share to lift. #agsky #econsky

🚢🇨🇳🇺🇸New Trump shipping rule could help Aussie grain but hinder meat. -A$26 per tonne extra to export grain from US -A$1590 extra per container into the US which would impact meat. Read more on the link 👇🏻 episode3.net/conversation... #agsky #econsky

"Go woke, go broke" Oh wait.

Why is China hoarding grains and other commodities? Are they preparing for famine, tariffs or war? #agsky #econsky episode3.net/grain/why-is...

If we look at historical wheat pricing—and I'm not talking about a decade or two; I'm talking about 700+ years—the wheat price is extremely low. The silver lining is that we have recovered from 760-year lows. Read more in the article on the link www.linkedin.com/pulse/wheat-... #agsky #econsky

The COT report shows that speculators have increased their net long in wheat this week. This means they have increased their 'bet' that wheat prices will fall. #agsky

Heifers in US feedlots on Jan 1 was down 3.4% yoy, making up 38.7 percent of total COF.  The Jan 1 inventory of beef replacement heifers was down 1.0% yoy & beef replacement heifers as a % of cow herd is the lowest level since 2011. All suggests no heifer retention underway yet. #agsky

The US coffee industry is lobbying for an exemption on import tariffs. The US doesn't produce anywhere near enough coffee for its demand. A tariff won't protect the domestic producer, it will only hurt the consumer.

Feeder steer indicator relationships show some surprises A good article by @meatwatcher.bsky.social in Beef central about the relationships between states in cattle pricing. www.beefcentral.com/markets/feed...

How well do the different feeder steer prices around the country align with the Argus Northern Feeder Steer index price trends? Read this Beef Central item below to find out.. #agsky www.beefcentral.com/markets/feed...

Die Damen aus der Hölle I learned an interesting fact this morning. The Germans used this term during WW2 to refer to the Scottish regiments. It translates to the ladies from hell

Pretty much a third of Australian exports of beef and sheep are headed to America. #agsky

Misinformation spreads unintentionally, while disinformation is deliberate deception. Both erode trust and distort reality.

Canola futures take another hammering. -Trade considering tariff options. -Canada is set to decrease Canola HA. #agsky

Canola prices in Australia have tanked. This is largely from tariff woes from both China and Trump. #agsky

This chart shows the % of seats won by Labor and Lib/Nat at WA elections. Control tended to fluctuate around similar levels with few periods of extreme dominance. The last four elections have seen more extremes, including Lib/Nat dominance.

I had a chat with Shan Goodwin from Farm Online about Australia's red meat export exposures to the USA with looming tariffs. #agsky Check out the short video link below - www.farmonline.com.au/video/agricu...

AgWatchers+ Podcast beaming to devices soon. Matt Dalgleish and Andrew Whitelaw have a chat about the local markets and then discuss the potential risks of Trump's announcement on social media of tariffs on ag imports. Follow the link below 👇🏻 t.co/Fo1MoTeQIB #agsky

Just how exposed are Aussie red meat producers to a potential USA tariff? This article looks at the percentage export flows to the USA by each state for beef and sheep meat exports. #agsky Read more below - episode3.net/livestock/re...

Since creating Episode 2 (TEM) and Episode 3 (@episode3.net) @wheatwatcher.bsky.social and I have always tried to be available to chat to the media to get the right message public. As we are closing in on 1,800 interviews we want to say thanks to the media for their support. #agsky

Trump trade tactics could hit Aussie red meat Tariffs on ag imports into US to come into effect. Read more on the link below: episode3.net/conversation... #agsky