What happens to fan interest when a football league champion is decided weeks early? Using 20 years of Google search data, this paper tests the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European football. Does early crowning kill attention? Read more: tinyurl.com/7rufnvhk #econsky #football

Is offshoring inherently more volatile than trade? This new study uses Mexican IMMEX data to show that offshoring-related sectors had significantly higher employment volatility when compared to sectors specialized in trade. Read the full analysis here: tinyurl.com/y5xbeta6 #econbluesky #trade

Why do defenders often outspend attackers, or attackers abandon production entirely? This paper unites the "guns vs. butter" dilemma with attack-defense dynamics. Their new general equilibrium model predicts counter-intuitive outcomes in high-stakes conflicts. Read more: tinyurl.com/p94w9hpe

Why do carbon taxes fail despite economic consensus? This new experiment tests how peer influence shapes support. They find tax objectors are just as likely to speak up as supporters, and are just as persuasive, leading to sustained low public support. Read here: tinyurl.com/mrfrspat #econbluesky

At EI, we are lucky to have many amazing academics willing to serve as referees. Our Outstanding Referee Service Award allows us to give special thanks to a few referees every year. For 2025, we give these awards to Wei Qian, Haverford College, and Carlo Pizzinelli, IMF. Thanks again to you both!

We are happy to announce the Best Article Award for 2025. This paper examines the impact of papers meant to help reassess previously published papers. These findings are important for our discipline to understand. Congrats to @jrgptrs.bsky.social, Nathan, and Florian! doi.org/10.1111/ecin...

Why might inflation rise after a monetary policy shock? This paper uses a novel sign restriction approach in panel SVARs to isolate the cost channel. They find it's highly potent in emerging economies, leading to a price-puzzle. Read more: tinyurl.com/3ujj3t5a #econbluesky #inflation

From Aaron Judge to Shohei Ohtani, contract status changes everything. This new paper shows MLB teams and players manage injuries differently depending on whether a contract is permanent or temporary. Players w/ temporary contracts miss fewer games. Read more: tinyurl.com/y88p4yed #econbluesky

Do combined nudges work better? This paper replicates email and visit interventions at a diverse public university. The interventions boosted enrollment in economics. Surprisingly, multiple concurrent interventions were not more effective than individual ones. Full paper: tinyurl.com/yyrj96tn

How do local temps affect city population? This paper revisits Waldinger (2022), finding that the positive temp/size link from the original paper is driven by towns with <1,000 people. Crossing that threshold flips the sign of the effect. Heterogeneity changes the story. tinyurl.com/4n2cfxhn #econ

Does ownership structure dictate pollution control? Evidence from China shows that state owned companies abate via technology, while credit-constrained private firms are forced to cut output, while facing a 9 times higher abatement cost. Read more here: tinyurl.com/4v4ykfbr #economics #econbluesky

Could the optimal labor tax be 0%? This model suggests that replacing labor taxes with consumption and capital taxes raises worker consumption by 5.7%, with entrepreneurs taking an initial hit. In the long run, 86% of agents benefit from the change. Read more: tinyurl.com/5d4x5fkm #econbluesky

Part II of the Symposium from Economic Inquiry on Reproducibility & Replicability in Economics is now available. This symposium spans a range of topics and methodologies, examining where and when prominent papers do or do not survive replication. Read the full symposium: https://ow.ly/IY8m50Y4zhU

We recently published our first issue of the year! Follow the link below to check out the second part of our Symposium on Reproducibility and Replicability in Economics. It also features several other original articles. Link: tinyurl.com/mr3d7pyj #economics #econbluesky

As the world faces rising conflict, how do we maintain economic ties? Using 70 years of IMF data (1948–2019), this study shows that countries with common DRM membership suffer significantly less trade disruption from war. Read more: tinyurl.com/yd7kz69j #EconSky

Are consumer switching and firm entry two sides of the same coin? This paper brings new evidence about this relationship using 20+ years of data. They find that more suppliers trigger switching, while active consumers invite more entry. Read the full study: tinyurl.com/5n6w5h7n #EconSky

Can pricing algorithms coordinate without talking? This study tests 7 different algorithms, with some achieving supra-competitive profits in <500 periods, 1000x faster than previously thought. Even with no communication, the algorithms are highly collusive. Read more: tinyurl.com/6av2eevt #EconSky

Is it time to rethink the foundation of oil price forecasting? This recent study revisits Baumeister and Kilian (2012), finding that once spurious predictability is addressed, model-based forecasts struggle to beat a traditional random walk. Read more: tinyurl.com/yeytykp4 #EconSky #Oil

Language isn't just identity; it’s economic infrastructure. This paper shows how bilingual education strengthens internal trade and U.S. welfare, underscoring how language policies yield economic benefits that stretch well beyond national borders. Read more: tinyurl.com/yb3r6vzt #EconSky

"Animal spirits" can be sources of productivity growth. This paper finds that positive sentiment shocks can incentivize firms to increase R&D investment. Which can lead to permanent gains in productivity and potential output. Read more: tinyurl.com/34edy43k #EconSky #Economics

The Hot Hand fallacy is expensive. This new study tracked live betting on 1,224 matches. A team that scores a 1-1 equalizer attracts 60% more bets in their favor. However, always betting on the team with momentum leads to substantial negative returns. Read more: tinyurl.com/45pv4tv5 #EconSky

Why can smaller nations now wage cyberwar against superpowers? This paper provides some insights into this question. Cyber conflict gets more intense when the tech capabilities of the two nations are similar. Find out more: tinyurl.com/ycytk3v8 Press release about the paper: tinyurl.com/4hhtcmhv

Did China's anti-corruption campaign work? Research using housing discounts as a proxy for bribes to government officials says yes. Officials' discounts on new homes shrank significantly after the campaign started. Non-monetary benefits also diminished. tinyurl.com/49evhfry #economics #china

Does affirmative action work? New research on India's 4% quota for backward class Muslims found it increased the average educational attainment by 0.54 years. However, the gains were concentrated among men, with no significant impact on women. tinyurl.com/4hetju9z #economics #education #india

Classic Constant Demand Elasticity growth models mute the links between population size, markup and innovation. This paper uses a variable elasticity framework to re-examine this link, finding population growth determines whether growth is semi or fully endogenous. tinyurl.com/4yd998my #Economics

Our 2024 Editor's Report was published recently. Last year, we published 81 papers across diverse topics in economics. The report also includes important updates on journal policy and activities. Read the full report: tinyurl.com/297bpfrs

Publish your latest and greatest research in Economic Inquiry @ei-sky.bsky.social ! Now with lower submission fees in celebration of WEAI's centennial milestones 🥳. Learn more at www.weai.org/ei #EconSky

How do we inspire future generations to pursue science? Evidence from Tanzania showed that a STEM bootcamp increased children’s interest in science, improved academic engagement & self‐esteem, and shifted girls’ gender attitudes and perceptions. tinyurl.com/2kbbwzbc #Economics #STEM #tech

Do differences in innovation drive global income gaps? A new study by @f-mariuzzo.bsky.social, @datanecon.bsky.social & Junjun Zhang, part of our replicability symposium, finds that the answer is yes, but depends on how innovation is measured and which countries are examined. tinyurl.com/3v57yd9n

Present-biased preferences are often thought to lead to under-saving. This paper shows that age-independent subsidies can help biased agents who understand their bias. But for those who don’t, high subsidies may backfire, while lower ones can actually help. tinyurl.com/yn38hu5m #econsky #policy

Does digital competition hurt truthful reporting? Economists @ayushpan.bsky.social l & @icotrombetta.bsky.social construct a theoretical model to provide insights. For breaking news, speed can reduce accuracy, while for investigative work, reputation drives careful reporting. tinyurl.com/mryp99zr

How does regulation uncertainty affect energy markets? Using natural language processing to measure regulatory uncertainty, this paper shows that rising uncertainty reduces oil production and harms both national and state economic outcomes. tinyurl.com/4trpmsfz #Economics #Energy #EconBlueSky

Continuing our replicability symposium, economists @mdrouvelis.bsky.social and Zeyu Qiu revisit public goods games. They confirm existing evidence: cooperation and positive reciprocity are lower in maintenance than in provision stages. Results persist under income inequality. tinyurl.com/4fwkb74a

Are there hidden downsides of expanding government assistance benefits? Through a lab experiment, this research suggests that newly-eligible individuals are less competitive compared to a treatment in which they do not qualify for the benefit. tinyurl.com/2ez46d3j #Economics #EconBlueSky

How do peers affect your undergraduate major choice? This paper finds that students emulate peers when choosing majors. Moreover, the evidence points to social learning, rather than social utility, being the main driver of these effects. tinyurl.com/bdz52w5k #Economics #EconBlueSky #Education

As part of our replicability symposium, authors show that key findings from Baker & Wurgler (2006, tinyurl.com/3aswpjyu) on investor sentiment replicate and extend to recent US and Chinese data, though effects in China are less pronounced. Read more: tinyurl.com/5xrwb4hc #Economics #EconBlueSky

Are connected housing markets influencing monetary policy transmission? This research finds that more synchronized housing markets intensify monetary policy effects through spillovers to connected local markets. tinyurl.com/4udtxtax #Economics #EconBlueSky #MonetaryPolicy #HousingMarke

Evidence from Georgia’s pre-K lottery shows kids enter kindergarten slightly more prepared than peers who didn't attend pre-K. However, gains fade by the end of kindergarten, questioning the belief that pre-K is essential in child development. tinyurl.com/s4ukkj7k #Economics #Georgia #EconBlueSky

Does additional school funding increase or decrease school donations? Among these potential results, this paper finds evidence for a positive correlation between budgets and voluntary contributions when not accounting for their endogenous relationship! tinyurl.com/pmvcc28n #EconBlueSky

Is there a hidden cost to political connections in China? Results using evidence from stock market responses to land acquisitions and a natural experiment in the form of an anti-corruption campaign suggest markets react to potential future political or legal risks! tinyurl.com/7spkj5hf #Economics

This experimental paper shows that competition reveals more information to a principal when costs are high: tinyurl.com/4m3dxk6k How might this result relate to school admissions and job interviews? #EconBlueSky #Economics

Do unconditional cash transfers effect voting behavior? This paper looks at the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) program: tinyurl.com/ymh2e553 Interestingly, a 10% increase in cash ($190) causes a 1.4 percentage point increase in turnout! #EconBlueSky #Economics #Voting #Alaska

Indexing minimum wages to consumer price levels increases unemployment! This paper finds evidence from Oregon that establishment employment falls 3.6% after indexing, implying an employment elasticity of −0.18. tinyurl.com/23j5dhad #EconBlueSky #Economics

Is there a relationship between child custody laws and a mother's work decisions? This great paper studies the impact of COVID-19 on labor force outcomes for mothers based on child custody laws, marital status and parental educational attainment: tinyurl.com/4b3pdaur #EconBlueSky

Interested in game theory? This paper explores the estimated revealed-preference Nash-equilibrium's predictive power in contributions to public goods. In the right circumstances, many real-life public-good problems may be solvable! tinyurl.com/mr2dh74j #EconBlueSky #Economics #GameTheory

Is there a causal relationship between housing wealth and consumption? This paper finds that there is using a novel event study. The effect is mostly driven by creditworthy middle-aged consumer. tinyurl.com/yc4bemr2 @wiley.com #EconBlueSky #Economics

Inflation responds differently to persistent versus transient fluctuations in the unemployment gap! This finding shows that the Phillips curve has not weakened, and that some inflation puzzles can be solved. Read more here: tinyurl.com/fs774mvw

How do workers respond to wage increases in for-profit and non-profit firms? These authors find workers are more responsive to higher wages in a non-profit setting, contrary to theories in prior economics research! tinyurl.com/54mtx53k #EconBlueSky #Economics

Estimates of psychological anchoring effects normally fail to achieve a statistical power of more than 30%. These authors greatly improve on this in this replication exercise and achieve a statistical power of 96%! tinyurl.com/4my7uece #EconBlueSky #economics

An exciting new economics paper finds persistent long-run peer effects of working with future executives! They do this using career history data at the Japanese central administration from 1946 to 2019. Read more here: tinyurl.com/y49fju3j #EconBlueSky #Economics