Daytona 500 --> Industry --> A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is an S-tier TV day

I know people get annoyed about the fuel saving, but: That race banged. Cars were hard to handle. Tons of action. Tons of contenders at the front. I loved it.

If the leaders are going to run half throttle, and I am in the back of the pack I am: - Getting a group of five drivers - Pitting now - Packing it full of fuel - Going 100% throttle to put pressure on them

We've reached the "my heart rate is higher than the drivers'" stage of the Daytona 500.

Going to run through some non-Fernando Mendoza QBs in this class now, but if you want info on Mendoza and how my quarterback prospect model works ⬇️

Good to see Joey Logano's hair found a loving home on Ryan Blaney's lip.

I've got some time now, so let's talk quarterback prospects, shall we? 🧵

With the full NFL combine list out, it's official: Only one QB in this class ranks above the 80th percentile of my pre-draft model. And that guy is going 1st overall. Data matches the narrative on this class.

Simming a Truck race with Cleetus McFarland, Frankie Muniz, Travis Pastrana, Tony Stewart, and Butterbean Queen in the field. We are so back.

Kansas is turning me into a basketball fan. Upset of the century.

Jalen Sundell saving the under with the hold SALUTE

First conference game at Allen Fieldhouse!

NASCAR in the sleet to start the year. This is heaven.

I *need* more Wednesday NASCAR in my life.

Minnesota sports are Having a Normal One today

Gonna watch The Day After Tomorrow to prep for this weekend

I have been running my NFL spread model since 2022. In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points. It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188. Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.

This makes up for two straight terrible games.

3 of the 6 1st-round QBs from 2024 have made the Conference Championship. Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.

As an unbiased viewer*, that was 100% a catch by Kayshon Boutte. *minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets

You know it's a disaster when you're shocked a team is down *only* 11 points at halftime.

Always jarring to: - Never clear your cookies - Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event - See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event

The Commanders finished as numberFire's 17th-ranked offense despite getting just 7 games from Jayden Daniels with gobs of WR injuries. Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.

No Monday Night Football means I can finally finish important projects.

100% still going to run the QB model! Will likely just be talking about it here rather than full articles.

Some job news: Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research. I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work. Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!

Get Kevin Stefanski to East Rutherford ASAP.

What. A. Freaking. Game.

The 49ers' moneyline has moved enough to become a value for me. My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...

Like a couple of Bucs pass-catchers against the Panthers tomorrow. What could go wrong? My favorite props for Bucs-Panthers at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...

We are riding with The King again this week 👑 My favorite Week 18 NFL player props at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...

Seeing some good value in the touchdown prop market for Week 18. My favorite options at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...

In 6 games against common opponents: Drake Maye: 10.2% CPOE, 0.26 EPA per drop back Matthew Stafford: 4.3% CPOE, 0.08 EPA per drop back

Against top-10 defenses by numberFire's metrics: Drake Maye: 9.2% CPOE, 0.09 EPA/DB (3 games) Matthew Stafford: -2.1% CPOE, 0.08 EPA/DB (5 games) So, Stafford faced more of these stout defenses. But Maye outperformed Stafford when he got the chance.

As things stand, here are my favorite NFL Week 18 spread and total bets at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...

TE leaders in EPA per target (min. 50 targets): 1. George Kittle 0.74 2. Colston Loveland 0.63 They're the only guys above 0.50 (per Next Gen Stats). Loveland's a dude.

Drake Maye is 31 points ahead of Matthew Stafford in Drop Back EPA, per Next Gen Stats. That doesn't count his rushing value. I honestly dgaf about the schedule. He's the MVP.

nitial Week 18 spread and total predictions are up! Caveat that personnel decisions will change things a bunch throughout the week ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/nfl...

EPA per drop back relative to expectation (based on opponent): Jaxson Dart: 0.00 Tyler Shough: -0.08 Total QBR (which includes rushing): Dart: 58.1 Shough: 48.2 Total EPA (again, including rushing): Dart: 25.9 Shough: -9.3

Tough matchup for Terrance Ferguson, but his role is good enough where I like his prop markets tonight. Favorite props for Rams-Falcons at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...

Why is Tony Romo singing/attempting (bad) jokes with 1:44 left in a 4-point Week 17 game with big playoff implications?

Cam Ward + Chimere Dike + Gunnar Helm + a legit WR1 has some fun potential.

Jets-Patriots total closed at 42.5. Patriots have 42 themselves with 8:16 left in the 3rd.

The Bills are leaning fully into James Cook down the stretch. My favorite Week 17 NFL prop bets at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...

Runnin' it back with Rashid Shaheed in Week 17. My favorite NFL anytime touchdown bets at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...

My four favorite spread and total bets for NFL Week 17 are all unders on totals. Laid out why and which bets I like at FanDuel Sportsbook here ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/4-b...

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

All I want for Christmas is a Shane Zylstra Homecoming Narrative touchdown 🎄

Two *very* gross bets where I'm showing value at FanDuel Sportsbook for the NFL Christmas games ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/2-b...

Career pass attempts: Cam Ward: 497 Josh Johnson: 367