After 20 years of service, my bowling shoes' watch has ended.

Have Austin Hill +75000 to win today. Went to check cashout options. Cashout offer implies his win odds are 0.8%. I've got him 1.0% post-qualifying. Wouldn't have taken it, anyway, but glad not to have the "It's +EV!!!" demon in my head.

My wife and I close on our first house tomorrow. Shoutout to Daniel Suarez and Mother Nature for chipping in on the down payment.

If I had a dollar for every Casey Schmitt HR prop I've bet this year... I'd have more money than I've made betting Casey Schmitt HR props.

Average 1st round QB since 2010: 22.3 years old 32.5 games w/ 10-plus pass attempts 81.1 QBR Ty Simpson: 23.3 years old 16 games 76.0 QBR The average *successful* first-rounder has been 22.1 years old with 35.4 games and a QBR of 82.2.

1st round QBs since 2010 with less than 25 games with 10-plus pass attempts who were at least 22.5 years old: - Mac Jones - Mitchell Trubisky - Carson Wentz - Ryan Tannehill - Ty Simpson (23.3, 16 games) Simpson's 16 games are the fewest of that group, and he is older than all but Tannehill.

Todd McShay caught a lotta flack for getting briefly duped on Arvell Reese at No. 2. But I bet Jeremiyah Love to go 3rd because of him, so shoutout Todd.

Arvell Reese at No. 2 odds 📈

Full rooting interests for me tonight. If Jeremiyah Love goes 3, we celebrate. If Gennings Dunker goes R1, I eat Culver's for a week straight.

Biggest thing I've learned from past NFL drafts: Don't bet against draft-day steam. That's when *actual* information leaks. If someone's odds shorten significantly, it's good to resist the temptation to "buy low" on someone else.

"Superspeedway week", also known as "My scheduled donation to whichever sportsbook offers the longest odds on Zane Smith."

Never a bad weekend at Kansas Speedway.

Forecast this weekend for NASCAR in Kansas has highs in the 50s/60s. As someone who has sweat profusely/gotten rained on at every NASCAR race I've been to the past decade, I am in heaven.

Zane Smith running a 2000 Elliott Sadler throwback today. Nine-year-old me is delighted.

Leaving for vacation tomorrow Vegas --> Zion National Park --> Grand Canyon --> back to Vegas If you have any restaurant/trail recs, shoot 'em my way!

Geno Smith chucking bombs to Garrett Wilson and AD Mitchell is at least fun. More bad teams should try to be fun!

I am in Boston for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, so if you see a portly bald man checking NASCAR/F1 practice times, come say hi!

Very cool to see my boy @gdula.bsky.social writing for the football newsletter run by my other boy @lateroundqb.bsky.social. So many boys. So much good #content. mailchi.mp/lateround/co...

2025 Texans offseason: Trade the entire OL. Can't get any worse! 2026 Texans offseason: Trade the entire OL. Can't get any worse!

Connor Zilisch is running as fast as the leaders while in heavy traffic. He can still be a factor for the win.

Starting to watch new Scrubs, and seeing these actors in high-def is jarring.

Daytona 500 --> Industry --> A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is an S-tier TV day

I know people get annoyed about the fuel saving, but: That race banged. Cars were hard to handle. Tons of action. Tons of contenders at the front. I loved it.

If the leaders are going to run half throttle, and I am in the back of the pack I am: - Getting a group of five drivers - Pitting now - Packing it full of fuel - Going 100% throttle to put pressure on them

We've reached the "my heart rate is higher than the drivers'" stage of the Daytona 500.

Going to run through some non-Fernando Mendoza QBs in this class now, but if you want info on Mendoza and how my quarterback prospect model works ⬇️

Good to see Joey Logano's hair found a loving home on Ryan Blaney's lip.

I've got some time now, so let's talk quarterback prospects, shall we? 🧵

With the full NFL combine list out, it's official: Only one QB in this class ranks above the 80th percentile of my pre-draft model. And that guy is going 1st overall. Data matches the narrative on this class.

Simming a Truck race with Cleetus McFarland, Frankie Muniz, Travis Pastrana, Tony Stewart, and Butterbean Queen in the field. We are so back.

Kansas is turning me into a basketball fan. Upset of the century.

Jalen Sundell saving the under with the hold SALUTE

First conference game at Allen Fieldhouse!

NASCAR in the sleet to start the year. This is heaven.

I *need* more Wednesday NASCAR in my life.

Minnesota sports are Having a Normal One today

Gonna watch The Day After Tomorrow to prep for this weekend

I have been running my NFL spread model since 2022. In that time, the closest spread it has had for a game is 0.0191 points. It has Rams-Seahawks Pt. III at 0.0188. Means I'm betting the Rams, but gol dang, this game bangs on paper.

This makes up for two straight terrible games.

3 of the 6 1st-round QBs from 2024 have made the Conference Championship. Caleb Williams could make it 4 of 6 tonight.

As an unbiased viewer*, that was 100% a catch by Kayshon Boutte. *minus my +390 anytime TD and 70-plus yards at +509 tickets

You know it's a disaster when you're shocked a team is down *only* 11 points at halftime.

Always jarring to: - Never clear your cookies - Open a PGA leaderboard for the first event - See the hideous list of names you bet for the last event

The Commanders finished as numberFire's 17th-ranked offense despite getting just 7 games from Jayden Daniels with gobs of WR injuries. Pretty tough to see Kliff Kingsbury get squeezed after that.

No Monday Night Football means I can finally finish important projects.

100% still going to run the QB model! Will likely just be talking about it here rather than full articles.

Some job news: Friday was my last day with FanDuel Research. I had a blast there/numberFire the past 10 years, and I'm grateful for all the awesome people I got to work with. They made it so fun to come to work. Thanks to everyone for reading/listening over the years!

Get Kevin Stefanski to East Rutherford ASAP.

What. A. Freaking. Game.

The 49ers' moneyline has moved enough to become a value for me. My favorite bets for 49ers-Seahawks at FanDuel Sportsbook ⬇️ fanduel.com/research/3-b...