Worst moment in UA-US bilateral relations since its inception as 🇺🇦 is waging war for its very existence. How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?

Btw what “mutual concessions by UA&RU for peace” as Trump team said mean in case of RU? There is unfortunately no specifics what RU shall cease to ask out of UA - only hints about what UA might be forced to sacrifice. Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.

All recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding UA-RU war are based on the misguided assumption that with this war dynamics situation is ripe for compromises and durable settlement. References to stalemate are best proof of this misguided idea. Thread 🧵

All these commemorations related to WWII end are just meaningless show as there is a war going on for 11th year which a kind of appeasement stretched in time. As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.

After a 1 year pause it seems that it’s a high time to come back to this back up channel of communications.

Escalation management as basis of Biden Admin policy to UA-RU big war is in contradiction with sound mil strategy which is about destroying enemy in defence&offence quicker than he recovers without giving him a chance to regroup&adjust. Sure gen Patton would have said just that.

If RU decides to conduct another major offensive these missiles both in cluster&unitary warheads versions might prove instrumental in easing pressure on frontline UA formations provided proper application. SRBM ATACMS is surest way for US to sustain UA fighting in short order.

Good calculation

Today 19th missile brigade of UA Defense Forces celebrated day of its establishment. 19th brigade employed SRBM Tochka-U against RU both in 2014-15 and after 24.02. But before 2007 19th brigade had SRBM SCUD which Ukraine was pressed to scrap under nonproliferation rubric.

Headlines matter WashPost - "As war frustrations rise, stalemate tests Zelensky and top general Zaluzhny" NYT - "Zelensky Rebuke of Top General Signals Rift in Ukrainian Leadership" Wording matters as unwarranted dramatising might do lot of harm related to people' perception.

Even before 24.02.22 it was obvious that RU is not interested in conventional arms control&confidence building measures as it turned into revisionist state with threat/use of mil force as prime instrument. So days of CFE treaty were numbered. link.springer.com/chapter/10.1...

Unfortunately both people inside&outside of UA mostly concentrate on specific personalities analysing war dynamics instead of giving a thought to objective conditions. By this people miss really important things and how they shape limits of possible. Thread 🧵

What is clear by now is that “Prevent RU from winning, prevent UA from losing” favoured by Biden Admin is not sustainable strategy any more.

If UA can leverage demands of some Republicans that Biden Admin has to provide proper strategy of UA victory to complement with another major military aid package it will be a kind of unexpected positive development under really dire conditions.

105 years ago today as A-H empire collapsed UAs seized key administrative buildings in Lviv to declare West Ukrainian People’ Republic. Ukraine didn’t come out of blue in 1991. Our claim to statehood is based on feats of people who in 1917-18 made clear desire for independence.

Sustained flow along with wise employment of SRBM ATACMS even with cluster munitions warhead is not a silver bullet itself but it might create new dilemmas for RU grouping of forces and new openings for UA Defense Forces to exploit.

Instead of just admitting fact that UA 2023 campaign results have proven to be modest despite huge sacrifice, true UA friends shall initiate substantive debate how better align UA political goals, capabilities&combat proficiency for 2024 campaign.

UA not only surrendered strat&tac nukes+delivery means but things like SRBMs SCUD&bombers Tu-22M3. UA was weakened under nonproliferation/disarmament rubric with no hard security guarantees in NATO. It was ok when RU was weak. But it proved disastrous when RU recovered.

Year ago UA’s ability to exploit RU’s miscalculations&mistakes was treated as synonymous to idea that UA had somehow gained decisive qualitative&quantitative advantage over RU and strategic initiative. This kind of misinterpretation is the source of all problems down the road.

Instead of trying to suggest some ways out of obvious strategic dilemmas UA faces (which have been discussed for some time ago) all TIME journalist managed to do is to repackage known problems in just another “revelation” article. That’s the level of journalism we deserve. 🤦‍♂️

After gen Christopher Cavoli admitted to US lawmakers behind closed doors at sidelines of Munich SecConf 2023 that UA deep fight capabilities need to be strengthened UA Commander in Chief increased interaction with gen Cavoli who think like true military man not politician.

Hope CEE countries (which either possess/going to acquire M142/270) give a thought of establishing joint GMLRS production under agreement with Lockheed Martin with proper offsets and localisation. Bargaining position of CEE countries would be quite persuasive.

Most of people think in terms of costs/risks of specific action instead of costs/risks of inaction. Unfortunately. In some distant future people will agree that admitting UA into NATO would have been much cheaper than just transferring billion dollars of arms under Israeli model.

A cogent and insightful summary of where Ukraine’s strategy may be heading for 2024.

I just want to acclaim WSJ&The Economist which have not turned a blind eye on ongoing UA-RU war. Let be honest most of media “got bored” with war where little terrain change hands. Covering ME is right. What is not - to pretend that biggest war in Europe somehow settled itself.

Recent events proved that it’s much easier&cost effective to destroy RU hellos on airfields en masse by SRBMs instead of trying to shoot hellos one by one with lesser chances for success&bigger munitions consumption. US indeed does right things after trying anything else.

Prophets of “air power alone delivered effects” might be disappointed a little bit. Artillery still matters. On the other hand it’s very unfortunate that US can’t deconflict rightly UA and Isreal needs - let Israel receive more JDAMs&Hellfires and UA gets more artillery ammo.

If majority tend to turn a blind eye on biggest European war it won’t mean that problem somehow solve itself. I’ve tried in broad terms to frame parameters of next year campaign and UA mil strategy for Atlantic council given objective constraint and known unknowns.

A transcript of conversation done with @fabricedeprez.bsky.social approximately month ago. Hope you’ll find smth interesting that improve your understanding of UA-RU big war dynamics. t.co/FIA7J8N8fx

This text aged well.

When your so called strategic depth is close to zero you have no other option than to hone such a mobilisation model. Impressive feat in any case.

Ramstein format countries committed whopping ~77 bln of dollars for UA self defense since Feb 2022. But effect of such an investment has been largely nullified as RU was allowed to mobilise, regroup, stabilise front, create defense in depth with obstacles. Tempo is most important in warfare.

Major POTUS speech on UA-RU war shall start from candidly admitting where we are - chance for quick RU defeat was lost in 2022 given escalation management. Now conditions must be laid carefully for another UA offensive push by attrition of RUs, preservation of UAs and munitions stocking.

First RU was allowed to mobilise, regroup, stabilise front line and create proper defense in depth with obstacles and now it’s about properly shaping perception. Time lost is most precious thing in strategy.

He-he. “China firsters” have been weakened in its argument “Let’s concentrate on China threat and disregard Russia ongoing aggression against Ukraine”. Republic of China politicians are more prudent and farsighted as clearly see a stake in UA-RU war proper endgame.

Yom Kippur war which started 50 years ago today demonstrated that lethality of conventional weaponry increased a couple of times compared with WWII thought mil art applied by both sides was WWII in nature with manoeuvring and massing of preponderant power at certain points.

Ukraine taught NATO countries how to wage modern lethal combined arms warfare cheaply. It’s especially a conceptual challenge for US Armed Forces for which if it’s not a multibillion price tag attached it’s not a solution at all.

on.soundcloud.com/rmTcjktmQjYN... Solid talk along with Volodymyr Yermolenko on current and prospective dynamics of UA-RU war.

Side effects of escalation management as cornerstone of Biden Admin policy emerge. People want to see decisive results which is natural. Decisive results can be ensured with speed of weaponry shipment to prevent RU from mobilisation, regrouping and stabilisation of frontline.

Out of “greatness of RU culture” the spectre of RU greatness in its ugliest forms might emerge one day…

Here we are. 19 months ago RU started with total domination at Black Sea north western quarters. Now RU transfered bulk of its ships&subs to Novorosiysk as risk of further stay at Sevastopol is too great. Incredible UA accomplishment with limited means. www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Interesting document first scooped by POLITICO.

With debates about past and present it’s important for 🇺🇦 and 🇵🇱 not to sacrifice future that can be built only jointly. Present day short term considerations shall not eclipse truly strategic imperatives. Estrangement between two nations would be most tragic development ever.

Ну що. Привіт Bluesky.