En route to Houston for @americansoccerinsights.com summit. Really looking forward to catching up with some old faces.

In the wake of FBref's defacto death, I saw a lot of posts suggesting alternate data sources. Unfortunately, many of them focus exclusively on men's soccer. To measure what options remain for woso, I conducted a survey of the most popular FBref alternatives. What I found is disappointing: 🧵

The best thing about LLMs in data science is that nobody forgets to label their axes anymore.

We have an opening on our Data Analytics team at US Soccer for a Performance Data Analyst. This person should have strong foundational skills in data analysis (python preferred) as well as experience in the Sport Science/human performance space (any sport) recruiting.paylocity.com/Recruiting/J...

When your step count is larger than your sample size. Ahead of the election, I walked 65 km around my electoral district and took a picture of every political lawn sign. www.centralwinger.com/p/getting-st...

So if Distance is flat, and Sprints are up, that means ... Walking must also be up? There has to be some sort of reciprocal change to the ensure balance. I'm having a very difficult time believing this data, especially after the inflation of stoppage time added minutes.

We’re hiring for a very unique Data Coordinator contracting role. jobs.smartrecruiters.com/MLSE3/744000...

We're talking football! Well kinda. @centralwinger.com asked if anyone was interested in explaining The Zoo model, so I figured I'd give it a go. thebucketless.wordpress.com/2025/04/01/e...

First blog post in a while. Tracking data research probably wasn’t worth it until recently. And some unexpected utility of the Hungarian algorithm. www.centralwinger.com/p/tracking-d...

Lucasfilm should have hired @mikeduncan.bsky.social to do a Revolutions-style accompanying podcast for Andor. Such a missed opportunity.

Is there a conceptual issue with performing a bayesian update on xG measurements after a shot? The outcome is pretty useful information, and it's a mathematically valid approach. I assume someone has already tried this?

This is awesome!

I built 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗹𝗶𝘁-𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗿, a custom React component for Streamlit for working with soccer tracking data. And a blog post on 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀

First search term of the 2025 (and my parental leave) was “baby ate cat food”, so we’re off to a good start.

The theory here is that some kind of basic property of “goal probability” is “option-ness” open.substack.com/pub/absolute...

Big Chances. Gone too soon?

🏃‍♂️⏪ 🏃‍♀️ 𝐀𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐫 It's been over a year now since I was invited to present my 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 metric to a small group of people at a SkillCorner event in Dallas, TX. I've finally put some effort into writing a blog on it! unravelsports.github.io/2024/12/12/p...

We're looking for a 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 on a 12-month contract help us build team performance tools across multiple sports.

These are some of my favourite "tricks" that I've picked up over the last few years that have been particularly useful in soccer analytics.

A football formulation of the fermi paradox – in blog post! Where are the new ideas?

Really cool that these sort of jobs are starting to be earnestly posted and advertised as opposed to purely insider appointment. And posted salary range! The times are changing.

Enjoyed speaking with the folks at Analytics FC. I haven't spoken a whole lot online about my new role. It's exciting to be working across multiple sports. Learning a bunch.

New post (!) – on xG, rebounds, conditional probability, and the need for more storytelling. There are still a lot of problems with how we use this model.

New (first) post on the Central Winger substack. With thoughts on Player Similarity, problems with current approaches, and a path forward.

I hear people are harking for a former time 😎

I miss the old days of Soccer Analytics twitter, so I'm going to start writing some occasional thoughts again.