I wrote an updated analysis on tariffs for 2025 - important clarifications on who actually pays for it. The methodology is synthetic control medium.com/@vishalmisra...

A look back at the fractal modeling craze of the ‘90s, why it fell short, and what Internet traffic actually looks like: layered, stochastic, human. https://medium.com/@vishalmisra/fractals-fables-and-the-nature-of-internet-traffic-81ed2d736eae Sometimes it’s just layers, not fractals.

I’ve spent the last 20+ years accidentally building things that turned out to be right. Live sports on the web. Control theory for TCP. Net neutrality. RAG. Wrote up 5 of those stories here: https://medium.com/@vishalmisra/five-ideas-that-were-early-but-turned-out-to-be-right-d6f51ab09574

Next time I go to a restaurant instead of paying the bill in cash I will teach them a class on stochastic differential equations. To get rid of the trade imbalance.

New research: Cluster Synthetic Control (ClusterSC) addresses the curse of dimensionality in causal inference with large datasets (AISTATS 2025). Blog: https://medium.com/@vishalmisra/a-smarter-way-to-compare-apples-to-apples-how-cluster-synthetic-control-improves-causal-inference-d8684dce6abc

Some people buy Teslas, I buy tomatoes

The next distinguished lecture in AI organized by @CUSEAS is on 3/28 by Ion Stoica - a legendary researcher and entrepreneur. Here is the registration link for the talk https://www.eventbrite.com/e/lecture-series-in-ai-ion-stoica-uc-berkeley-tickets-1277915703269 Looking forward to you visit Ion!

This is pitch perfect by Dr. Katrina Armstrong, our President and leader. She speaks to all our values.

SHSAT results came out and our son joins our daughter for high school at Bronx Science. I told them no pressure but it’d be nice if they can add to this list of 9 Nobel Prize winners from Bronx Science. No pressure.

A must read on what’s happening in that other place https://www.richardhanania.com/p/liberals-only-censor-musk-seeks-to

Well isn’t this fantastic https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3299395/americas-loss-chinas-gain-top-chinese-universities-welcome-phd-refugees-us

Yesterday’s announcement of funding cuts makes us more committed than ever in supporting our students, our faculty, and our research mission. @Columbia has a reputation for being one of the most important and influential research institutes in the world and it will continue.

Mumbai Tech Week was a fantastic event - had the pleasure of speaking on both days. Once with Amit Sharma - the CTO of Dream Sports on the Columbia Dream Sports AI Innovation Center - #MumbAI

On Day 1 of Mumbai Tech Week. Appearing on a panel on all things AI moderated by Varun Mayya with Niki Parmar (co-inventor of the transformer) and Siddharth Srinivasan, head of Eleven Labs India. #MumbAI

Aaaand here we go https://www.thefp.com/p/exclusive-trump-administration-cancels

Found this on my college WhatsApp group. At least I have been consistent with my views!

My first time at AAAI - giving an invited talk on “Large Language Models as Approximate Bayesian Learners: A Unified View” Joint work with Naman Agarwal and Siddhartha Dalal Thanks B Ravi from IITM gfor the invitation!

A simple experiment in arithmetic on our tool TokenProbe reveals the power of inference time scaling in LLMs: Given '33×117', token probabilities show uncertain guessing for direct computation, but near-certainty for each step when solving methodically.

Nobody voted for DOGE. People certainly didn’t vote for the Middle East Rivera. There is considerable evidence that it was, in fact, the price of eggs that drove the outcome and the Harris campaign nearly overcame that. https://medium.com/@vishalmisra/thoughts-on-the-2024-us-elections-a228086d9fba

Two words instantly doubled shampoo sales: Rinse, Repeat Four words have quadrupled Kumbh business: Once in 144 years This is what genius marketing looks like.

Because this is getting downplayed in some of the coverage, the racist staffer DOGE rehired isn’t a case of “stupid things he wrote years ago as a teen.” He posted about how we should “normalize Indian hate” IN SEPTEMBER.

What are the best books on how democracies fail?

We all like to yell at the Democrats, but it’s really Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune who are letting Elon Musk and his faceless goon squad make a mockery of their power as leaders of a coequal branch without uttering a peep or lifting a finger.

Sunny G was making the point over and over again how Abhishek Sharma’s innings was full of classical strokes - and the evidence bears out. Almost all in the V - no “reverse” or “scoop” anythings

Dean Shih-Fu Chang and Vice Dean @vishalmisra.bsky.social discuss the future of #AI in education as a part of the Winter 2025 issue of Columbia Engineering Magazine. Read their conversation: bit.ly/40FIhCa @columbiauniversity.bsky.social #ColumbiaEngineering #E4H

My thoughts on DeepSeek sent to a reporter asking for comments

AI at Columbia Engineering https://www.engineering.columbia.edu/about/magazine/winter25/artificial-intelligence/drafting-blueprint-ai-columbia-engineering

🔍 Ever wanted to peek inside an LLM's "brain" while it thinks? Now you can share those insights with anyone! TokenProbe's new sharing feature lets you capture and share LLM behavior with just one click. Watch probability distributions evolve in real-time 🧠 Try it: https://shorturl.at/yR8EQ

Tariffs keep coming up, and I post my analysis again that US consumers pay for them - not the nation they are imposed on. http://peerunreviewed.blogspot.com/2019/08/who-is-paying-for-tariffs-china-or-us.html

Pat Cummins bringing up sample sizes and talking like a data scientist/statistician. That’s why Pat Cummins and the San Francisco Unicorns are a match made in heaven!

Our research (sub) group thanksgiving meal. We are arguing over congestion control protocols instead of Trump/Harris

India has played 6 tests in Perth so far (won only a single test) going back to 1977. There have been six centuries, Virat Kohli has two of them.

are there “starter packs” for academia and cricket on here to recreate the network from the other place?

This obsession of telecasters with the “release point” of Bumrah is a cop out for those that don’t understand his genius. It doesn’t explain the seam movement and swing he gets, the way he sets up batsmen, the way he reads the pitch and quickly adjusts his line and length.

This is a good argument against treating Trump’s win as any kind of mandate for sweeping change

Not quite ready with your summaries Apple intelligence…although Bumrah’s 4 sure do *feel* like 17!

This sequence of tweets on that other network makes me think the second tweet was a metaphor for the pitch that Australia produced at Perth

I’m sorry but I don’t see how the 3rd umpire could’ve given KL Rahul out. what was the rush to make a decision before looking at the front on angle?

Hey, I've written something for MSNBC (first time I've written for them). www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

I can’t recall ever both Jadeja and Ashwin being fully fit and neither getting picked

Apparently “cold water” is beer according to one of the protagonists.

Testing crossposting with Openvibe again. This should go to Bluesky, Mastodon, and Threads

Had written this a few days back. Another piece of evidence now backs it up. https://medium.com/@vishalmisra/thoughts-on-the-2024-us-elections-a228086d9fba

So Mr. Healthy living is eat a Big Mac with fries and drinking coke?

SEO taken care of

X's algorithm was changed in mid-July 2024 to systematically boost Republican-leaning accounts and Elon Musk's own account following his endorsement of Donald Trump, via https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1857734822799540684?s=46&t=WBS_3kx2mUd83-aYp7ieOA

Testing crossposting on Bluesky and mastodon using Openvibe

Does anyone know of a client that lets you cross post to blue sky and threads?