... and to what extent that is portable to Man United. Our research shows that a manager's previous record is less predictive of how he will perform in a new role than how the previous coach performed at that club. (5/5)

Objectively great sport. Five switches of favourite 🎢

Lovely little narrative arc www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY1c...

And again in Nigeria’s penalty defeat just now. It’s penalty taking 101 now

Pretty astonishing result in the NWSL today: Kansas City Current knocked out at home in the first round of the playoffs by 8th seed Gotham FC having put in - by far - the most dominant regular season record in the league’s history. US sports fans accept it, European men’s football fans would never…

On Daniel Levy: www.linkedin.com/posts/omar-c...

In terms of absolute difference in revenues, has there ever been a bigger upset in football, ever? c. £6m plays c. £600m.

How pre-season expectations for clubs have varied since 2015: - Puts in context NEW & AVL's quick rise - MCI forecast for 78 points, their lowest since 16/17 - Expectations up at EVE, but below pre-2022 - Market's view of BRE has been pretty consistent over time, save for going into 23/24

My hot take on the England-India series is that it was a great series but nowhere near as good as the 2023 Ashes for consistent drama and see-sawing. There were some pretty slow days (by admittedly high modern standards) and only one genuinely good pitch in the whole series. But an epic finish.

On tonight’s evidence, the time taken between the whistle and start of run up remains the strongest predictor of a penalty kick’s success.

Amazingly weird odds scenarios playing out here because of the skewed draw - England winning but their odds of reaching the final per our model has gone from 47% before Netherlands were ahead, to 26% now, while France have gone from 16% to 33% after falling behind.

By my maths, Alcaraz was a minimum of 41 points from victory when Sinner was 1 point away. The only other sport that can parallel these scenarios (I think) is test cricket - a last-wicket pair needing over 50 to win. Makes for such great sport

Not seen this parallel drawn, but United’s win yesterday reminded me of Liverpool’s against Dortmund in 2016. Europa League quarter final, new manager, centre back with the winner. Liverpool’s perhaps more dramatic thanks to the away goals rule.

Bodø/Glimt 👇 www.linkedin.com/posts/omar-c...

My first sight of Grand Slam Track this evening. Love MJ and attempts at new things in sport. But first impressions matter, and all a bit amateurish: 1) Empty stadium 2) Sound issues on broadcast 3) Really poor explanation video on format On the plus side: Steve Cram

Admittedly not a full programme of matches, but the fact that the team with the 11,000-seater stadium is the shortest-priced favourite this weekend in the Premier League is pretty remarkable.

I missed this last week - Barcelona hadn’t lost a league game that wasn’t a dead rubber in six years. They hadn’t dropped a single point in 12 months. And then they lose, at home, to a team in the relegation zone. Hard to think of many bigger upsets in any league, anywhere.

Of all the takes on the UCL, I thought this was the most perceptive. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped it would be, but it was better than before. And I think the likes of the EFL and groups of European leagues should think about how lots of games at once can make for fun TV for (informed) fans

Comparing Leicester 15/16 and Forest 24/25: Pre-season betting market: LEI - 6th-favourites for relegation, projected 39 points FOR - 4th-favourites for relegation, projected 38 points By gameweek 10: LEI - 5th, 19 points, projected 10th & 52 points FOR - 3rd, 19 points, projected 11th & 51 points

Some potentially interesting MD8 narratives emerging. PSV at home to Liverpool, who may be guaranteed 1st - a PSV win would put pressure on City/PSG, maybe Real. And Stuttgart host PSG, who have City next - could be winner takes all. Though currently not looking like much competition for 24th.

Potential for a group of: Fluminense, 16th in Brazil Salzburg, 7th in Austria León, 11th in Mexico Al Ain, 6th in UAE Or, according to our model, the equivalent of Southampton Ipswich Town Sheffield Wednesday Exeter City in terms of current performance levels

We're a third of the way through the season, and this is how the predicted points for each team has evolved over the season, according to spread betting on Sporting Index.

Norway, Japan and Brazil’s leagues an advert for competitive balance. Bodo/Glimt are champions on just 2 points per game, the lead switching in the 2nd-last week. J League has 3 teams in the title race on the last day, with leaders Vissel on 1.9 PPG. Botafogo haven’t won since 1995 & may trip up yet

Striking parallel with the league table after Liverpool beat City at home in November 2019, en route to winning the league. Back then, the same points as today but from one fewer game, and a point smaller lead over second.

Putting India's comeback win in Australia into context: - 8% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in the first innings in test cricket history, and 5% (13/244) since 1900. - 14% win rate for away teams scoring 150 or less in Australia in the first innings, and 9% (3/34) since 1900.

Women’s North London, Rhône-Alpes and El Clásico derbies all scheduled during the men’s international break to maximise interest, but all effectively over as contests before a quarter of the game was played. No hype/marketing/promotion of rivalries survives competitive imbalance over the long term.

Thanks to @sportingintel.bsky.social for allowing me to do a guest post on his Substack, covering the remarkable performance of Rúben Amorim and Sporting CP. A few observations... (1/5) sportingintelligence832.substack.com/p/ruben-amor...