90s rock songs as political science paper titles: Only Happy When it Rains: Social Media Sentiment Analysis of Agricultural Subregions Experiencing Drought Using Rainfall as an Instrument

The arbitrary exercise of government power is the signature act of authoritarian regimes

The JCPOA was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements of the 21st century. Multiple nations, several powerful blocks, a ton of oversight and the entire time diplomats were working it out domestic American media & politicians were demonizing it, lying about it, and trying to sabotage it. They won

One of the most important and clear charts you'll ever see.

Doesn't even qualify this with references to ostensible violence and disorder, just says protest will be met with force. The authoritarianism is more open and brazen by the day.

Sean Evans: You've argued that gender is a performance. Can you elaborate? Judith Butler: Well gender cannot... *coughs* what the hell is this one? SE: That's Angel of Death, it's made from Carolina Reaper peppers. JB: *tears streaming down face* The acts constitute the... *wheezes* the identity

They use high environmental and regulatory standards as a reason to believe that US-made products are safer and better-made, while dismantling those very environmental and regulatory standards. This administration is happy to vary its argument depending on which is most convenient at the time. 1/2

This is the latest, clearest signal that the United States, under Donald Trump, is thoroughly abandoning the idea of human rights. The US government will no longer be using diplomatic or economic pressure to improve the human rights practices of other states. 1/n

Every day there's a new announcement that's like, "Today all staff of the Division for the Prevention of Children Dying in Entirely Predictable and Preventable Ways, whose programs reduced childhood mortality by 99.978%, were dismissed. The division represented 0.00001% of the federal budget."

The garbage trucks that collect in my neighborhood have motvational slogans printed in huge letters in Comic Sans on their sides and it surprises me every time. I just saw one roll by that says, "The key to success is focusing on goals, not obstacles." And it's like, thanks, garbage truck.

I've been thinking about this for weeks. bsky.app/profile/csul...

In addition to the general horror and depravity related to deporting people for their beliefs, the case of Kseniia Petrova is also a textbook non-refoulement case. American and international laws prohibit sending a person to a country where they are likely to be tortured, persecuted, or killed.

This led me to search for a "tooth fairy index," and thank goodness, it exists and is still going strong (and is still interesting!).

Rumeysa Ozturk, a PhD student on a valid student visa, has been detained by masked agents and is in the process of being deported because she had been flagged for "anti-Israeli activism" based on an op-ed she coauthored. Her case is as clear an example of political imprisonment as you'll find.

Dude's welcoming anyone into the group chat "with arms wide open," am I right?

Quick 🧵 on Signal: You may be reading the coverage of the national security principals' group chat and wondering, "Why are news reports referring to Signal as an unsecured commercial app? I thought it was 'secure.' Is it?" Well, yes and no. Like so much in digital security, it depends! 1/n

Apropos of, umm, nothing...

I used to really love the Niemöller poem, but it hasn't sat right with me for a long time, and this is why. We should stand with vulnerable and targeted people even if we're not next in line.

Me the next time a student asks me what "selecting on the dependent variable" means and why it's bad.

Scary thought I had yesterday: One way around the 22nd Amendment's prohibition ("No person shall be *elected* to the office of the President more than twice") would be for Trump to run in the VP spot with the understanding that if that ticket won, he would assume the presidency by resignation.

This is a confirmed recent change. See the original version in the Wayback Machine (web.archive.org/web/20250000...), which does not include DEI in the URL. The old address now redirects to the URL that does include DEI. The updated URL was first captured yesterday (web.archive.org/web/20250000...).

You'll not find a clearer example of Orwellian doublethink than referring to policies and guidelines that require or promote "the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income" as "forced discrimination programs."

ABC News has now fully taken down the old 538 website, including all interactive projects since 2014. Aside from erasing history this prevents access to publicly released data, including raw polls, averages, model estimates & story dta. Totally unacceptable for a company (allegedly) doing journalism

The playbook here seems pretty clear: gut FEMA, tell states that emergency management is up to them, and when a disaster hits, condition federal assistance on policy concessions.

movies you've watched more than 6 times, using GIFS only

If I were studying American Politics (or American history), this would be my new dissertation topic. There are like 6 million ways to deconstruct this statement he's made, none of which point to "yes, everything is fine." Honestly the more I think about it the more layers I find.

"So in a short 20 years When you vacation the Strip Try not to think about the dead And have a nice trip." www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEUF...

Reminded this season that Rankin-Bass' "Santa Claus is Comin' to Town" is a story of nonviolent direct civil disobedience in response to petty and arbitrary authoritarian tyranny, and a clear example of the adaptive tactical and strategic relationship between contention and repression. #polisky

"When the night seems dark, we can still make it darker and profit from darkness arbitrage markets."

Maybe it's because I just finished writing a few fellowship proposals, but I find this very funny. "Manifestos should be 1000-2500 words and should include at least 3 of the following: * the writer's worldview; * stories of personal grievance; * conspiracy theories; and * at least one scapegoat."

This is me being wet blanket, but... I mean, those viral threads where people share the make & model of their first cars may or may not actually be social engineering ops. I'd just recommend that we have fun on here without giving out the answers to our security questions. #buzzkill

Seems like a good time to introduce myself! I'm Collin, I'm a PhD candidate in political science at Michigan. I (broadly) study human rights, state repression, & atrocity prevention. More specifically I study strategy design for small human rights groups, often using complex systems methods. 1/2

Looks like Sox fans' accounts are about to get a lot easier to hack.

The messy, disorienting politics of democratic erosion. Some people will give up too easily as if one election changes everything. Others will claim there is no problem because Trump won't get everything he wants. Neither is true.

Counterpoint: Stable liberal democracies prioritize the will of the people, but have robust institutions that protect against a tyrannical or destabilizing majority, like independent courts that hold leaders accountable for criminal behavior. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/15/o...

This is the second time in ~two weeks that Neo-Nazis have gathered around Michigan cities and it’s not surprising that they also gathered in Columbus, Ohio this weekend. Their presence in liberal, college cities and towns suggests they’re emboldened and … www.mlive.com/news/ann-arb...

Over the weekend I took an opportunity to gather my thoughts on the sort of disappointed, deflated shrugginess of a "what can you do?" sentiment that I think is currently probably pretty prominent among many concerned, well-meaning, relatively safe, and only somewhat politically engaged people. 1/

Beware the temptation to downplay the authoritarian threat. Could be launching another attempted coup in 65 days. Could be president again in 140 days.

A cool and (I think) little-known thing about Tim Walz is that when he was a high school teacher in Nebraska, he had his students do an exercise where they correctly predicted the Rwandan genocide a year before it happened. www.npr.org/2008/04/26/8...