Run Value of Events Relative to Outs 1969 - 2025

Let's see... a player will get a "rush" at the end (if and only if there is a movement for him like Edgar, Raines, Walker) of flipping ~30% no's year after year. Pettitte is at 28% after 7 years. Flipping 30% of the 72% no's means another 22% yes to bring him to 50% after year 8. 1/2

On the one hand, that's a pretty light ballot On the other hand, he is voting for pitchers More importantly: dude's name is Dom Amore!

NHL players think one play ahead Superstars think two plays ahead Wayne Gretzky thinks three plays ahead -- Steve Shutt, HOF

One of the very early saber-style hockey books: The Hockey Compendium Inspired by the Baseball Abstract and The Hidden Game of Baseball, it did its best to adjust plus/minus (good, but not great) and give voice to save percentage (with bit of misstep), it does give fantastic historical perspective

On top are the Linear Weights run values that Pete Palmer calculated way back in the early 1980s, as published in the seminal book The Hidden Game of Baseball, co-authored with @johnthorn.bsky.social On bottom are the Linear Weights I calculated for each of the last three seasons

Rookies know ball... I'd have liked to see some love for Torii Hunter. Otherwise, rooks have got this...

Based on this noted dog connoisseur, here's who he likes and does not like

Edmonton has scored 36 PPG. McDavid had points on 30 of them Oilers have an insanely high 34% success rate (league is 20%), meaning they are getting +15 goals above average, driven almost all by the Dynamic Duo

In terms of 5-on-5 scoring, MacKinnon leads the NHL with 3.66 points per 60 minutes McDavid is 47th (11 G, 15 A, 2.43 pts/60) www.nhl.com/stats/skater...

Daccord will have a post-career job as a Data Analyst, as he already understands how Selection Bias works...

Going back to 2017-18 season (when Knights entered), seasonal GAA has been very stable. Even PPG per Opp has been pretty stable. "Official" Shots On Goal has been anything-but Year after year, SV% (with SOG as denominator) continues to worsen, artificially www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stat...

After about 500-600 votes each, here are the results: You can keep voting if you like for the HOF 2026 players Who had the more outstanding career? all-our-ideas.citizens.is/group/3026

Current results:

Poll: HOF 2026 Who had the more outstanding career? all-our-ideas.citizens.is/group/3026

Terrific piece... Reddit: No, xWOBA is not biased against pull hitters www.reddit.com/r/baseball/c...

Only Mr Burns had more momentum than Felix Once the Felix train picks up steam in the coming years, a revisit of Johan will be in order. And that will (finally) open the doors for all SP

Current results Empire Strikes Back is a runaway winner After the original 3, only Rogue One joins its ranks

Favourite Star Wars movie is... (Choose SKIP if you have not seen BOTH) all-our-ideas.citizens.is/group/2996

(Unadjusted) Plus/minus leaders since the 2018-19 season www.nhl.com/stats/skater...

Skenes/2025 on far left Skenes/2024 on far right Nolan McLean in middle Paul Skenes has no idea how to throw curveball, as whatever he threw was closer to slider. And he agrees seeing his usage went from 11 to 5% And hes STILL top 2 pitcher in baseball. Imagine if McLean would teach him his curve

Current Rankings

Which is your favourite Rob Reiner movie? If you have not seen one of the two options, choose SKIP all-our-ideas.citizens.is/group/2971

For such an impressive songwriter and seasoned professional, TS certainly uses the word like an inordinate number of times #Colbert

The Math of Hall of Fame voting This is from ten years ago, but the concept applies today... tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

There are ~1 SB Attempts per team per game, along with ~0.2 sac bunt attempts, and 0.1 IBB Were going to have ~4 ABS Challenges per team per game. In other words, over half the strategies managers are going to invoke in any given game will be related to ABS Are managers ready?

I'm shocked I never came across this until today @dszymborski.fangraphs.com

LUKE HUGHES, Even Strength: TEAM GOALS, For - Against (Minutes in paren) 22 - 29 (572) With 43 - 46 (932) Without Per 60 min 2.3 - 3.0 With 2.8 - 3.0 Without TEAM SHOT ATTEMPTS 598 - 547 (572) With 923 - 896 (932) Without Per 60 min 63 - 57 With 59 - 58 Without Source: @naturalstattrick.com

Quinn Hughes, Even Strength: TEAM GOALS, For - Against (Min in paren) 26 - 30 (538) With 37 - 42 (910) Without Per 60 minutes 2.9 - 3.3 With 2.4 - 2.8 Without TEAM SHOT ATTEMPTS 618 - 528 (538) With 730 - 990 (910) Without Per 60 min 69 - 59 With 48 - 65 Without Source: @naturalstattrick.com

Marketing Executive: You know how some folks think soccer is too slow moving? What if we slow it down even more by having no action at all? Boss: Wait, what? Marketing Executive: I meant to say: what if, yadda yadda yadda $$$ Boss: Sold!

What predicts ERA better: wOBA or K-BB Differential?

Blog Post: What predicts ERA better: ERA or wOBA? tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Based on these polls, readers gravitated toward 87-75 no-star team being equivalent to 81-81 star-laden team, holding payroll+budget constant Theres either: - misconception you can improve star-laden team enough to close the gap - or folks like watching stars, despite the AAAA

@adarowski.bsky.social A null/zero issue here www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pa...

On Even-Strength Pro-rated to 60 min 3.2 - 3.8 With McDavid 2.4 - 3.3 Without Pro-rated to 60 min 3.8 - 3.1 With Draisaitl 2.1 - 3.7 Without Source: @naturalstattrick.com Is McDavid playing with worst players on team? Or are goalies allowing more goals/shot "coincidentally" when McJ is on ice?

On Even-Strength Jake Evans Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes) 9-25 (318) With 58-51 (1022) Without Pro-rated to 60 minutes 1.7 - 4.7 With 3.4 - 3.0 Without That's a pretty abysmal on-ice record Source: @naturalstattrick.com

On Even-Strength Esa Lindell Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes) 32-16 (525) With 40-40 (896) Without Pro-rated to 60 minutes 3.7 - 1.8 With 2.7 - 2.7 Without When "without" has goals scored = allowed, you know rest-of-team is equal to rest-of-league So that 32-16 record can stand unadjusted

On Even-Strength Matthew Schaefer Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes) 32-22 (515) With 37-45 (898) Without Pro-rated to 60 minutes 3.7 - 2.6 With 2.5 - 3.0 Without source: @naturalstattrick.com

On Even-Strength Moritz Seider Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes) 36-27 (563) With 29-53 (870) Without Pro-rated to 60 minutes 3.8 - 2.9 With 2.0 - 3.7 Without source: @naturalstattrick.com

On Even-Strength Goals Scored - Allowed (Minutes) 32-21 (464) With Connor Bedard 33-42 (848) Without Bedard Pro-rated to 60 minutes 4.1 - 2.7 With 2.3 - 3.0 Without Source: www.naturalstattrick.com

Whiff Rate by Pitch Speed, since 2008 Fastballs only (excludes pitchers-as-batters, except Ohtani) The averages in the Grand Total are the simple averages There's been a turn since 2020 where the whiff rates are progressively going down (after controlling for pitch speed)

Since players are going to get paid a number, evaluation comes down to... a number Framber is forecasted at 3.7 WAR, Cease at 3.8 WAR, Suarez at 3.3 WAR. Cease/Suarez are 2 years younger. Watch what they sign for and thatll tell you how intangibles are valued www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...

Eight fielders... you have 2 outfielders, 3 infielders and a "rover" who plays wherever they need him to cover the holes... suddenly, batters will be hitting for contact... all the problems are solved BUT, it requires that thing that you grew up with no longer being an artificial constraint

The highlighted column is the Projected WAR for 2026 @fangraphs.com Crowdsource best-fits to roughly this: Years = 2 x (ProjWAR - 1) AAV = 7.5 x ProjWAR So, a 3 ProjWAR player would get 4 years, 22.5 AAV, or a 4/90 deal Let's see how the market ACTUALLY responds www.fangraphs.com/roster-resou...

Blog Post: Bayesian Strike Zone tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Blog Post: Pattern in Fastball Usage tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

At first pass, I clicked 13 names... and I have no desire to remove three names

Blog Post: Statcast: Move over Framing Skill, make room for Challenging Skill tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

3/72 deal has similar expectation of production as 5/102.5 deal, over the first three years (and bench-level expectation for years 4+5) So straight 1:1 deal of Semien/Nimmo essentially is both sides agreeing the two players are equivalent in talent at this moment An old fashioned "baseball deal"

Isn't this the plot to The Bad News Bears?