Blog Post: Movement of 4-seam fastballs tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

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One value of having articles is to have contemporaneous account for how life feels And Dan points out in 1959, the feeling was pitcher arms were going to suffer in the coming years In other words, every year we get the "baseball is dying" articles and "pitcher arms are collapsing". Every. Year.

#Statcast Blog Post: Ideal Seam Orientation for Fastballs tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Win Probability Graphic Terrific piece by Kathryn Xu last year defector.com/espns-win-pr...

#Statcast Blog Post: IFK, Sliding, and Measuring Speed as Feet per Second (updated) tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rolled up for Game 7 in a game-worn jersey from Canadian hockey icon Marie-Philip Poulin. Another instalment in my series as MLB•com's hockey correspondent: www.mlb.com/bluejays/new...

Can someone out there tell me what you see is the issue with the conclusions of this study? It's really obvious

In 1971, Habs won Stanley Cup, backstopped by Rookie Goalie Ken Dryden, who played 6 games in regular season, followed by 20 in playoffs, playing every minute, and earning the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP. The following season, he won rookie of the year #Yesavage www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...

Macklin Celebrini is one of 7 teenagers in NHL history to record 15+ points through his team's first 10 games. 🔥 Five of the other six are in the Hall of Fame, and the other is Sidney Crosby: www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tin...

A random walk is around .700 wOBA. With bases empty, a walk more like .800 wOBA In the entire history of baseball, the highest wOBA (min 300 PA) is .639 Josh Gibson. Ruth peaked at .601, and Bonds at .544 There is NEVER an occasion to walk someone intentionally with the bases empty

Two sets of 9 is right there...

Of all these, Skubal surprised me the most

This is so freckin cool

At pitches just inside strike zone, pitches are called strike 77% of time At pitches just outside strike zone, pitches are called strike 14% of time There is an especially noticeable difference when there's 0 or 2 strikes Will be interesting to see it in an ABS-Challenge world

Pure luck would suggest 66% (79/120). Being off by 3 (79 v 76) is just over half a standard deviation, suggesting that there's nothing other than Random Variation at play after the first game. There's no momentum, there's no reverse-momentum. There is just chaos. Which is why we watch

Montreal/Quebec is number 1, so obviously Sean knows what he's doing...

I make similar argument in baseball (which has far fewer issues than hockey) What really counts is the fanbase. That is what matters. So, even a city doesn't act as a definer. When the Devils moved from East Rutherford to Newark, it's the identical fanbase. But not when they came from Colorado/KC

If you don't want to sound totally ridiculous, just add "Since Bobby Orr" when talking about 18-year old defenders...

Ray Bourque entered NHL at age 19 years, 9 months, won Calder, finished 4th in Norris He finished top 4 in Norris for 7 straight years, after which won it 4 of next 5 seasons Bobby Orr entered at 18 years, 7 months, won Calder, finished 3rd. In his next 8 seasons, he won 8 times. His career ended

Blog Post: ABS Challenge Considerations tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

wOBA in 3-2 Counts By Number of Prior Pitches Thrown wOBA on 3-2, regardless of number of prior pitches, is .388 (thats first long dashed line) wOBA on 3-2, when 11+ prior pitches is .402 (thats smaller dashed line) So, there's a small advantage to the batter on longer PA

BUNT RATE, since 1969 Runner on 2B only, 0 outs Home Team Bunting, Down by 1 9th or Extra Innings

First change Jane makes: everyone 10 years old and younger gets in for free, when accompanied by an adult (upper deck seating I think was implied) Jane notes that baseball is in a good position to do this because of its inventory

Third time thru, which Snell has a tough time with Take, take, take Instead, first pitch wild swing

As predicted, McDavid did indeed sign short-term However, rather than signing 2/38 or 3/57 deal (after which hed sign 8/190 deal), he instead signs 2/25! Hes gifting Oilers 13 million dollars Only reason to do this, is like with young Crosby gifting Penguins non-max deal: bigger chance of Cup now

One of the best viewing experiences I had was watching three Olympic hockey games in span of 6 hours I've also seen a 5-hour match involving any two of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic What really matters is lack of dead time Johnny Carson at the Oscars: We have a great 2-hour show... spread over 4 hours

These are two unique strike zones, from same batter in same game By rulebook, these are two different strike zones: 8 inch difference at top, 4 inch difference at bottom In ABS world, one strike zone / batter / season baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-video... baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-video...

Statcast Lab: Relative Run Values by Pitch Type tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Pure camera based is the standard So, better to say hand timing is faster

That's a good subtitle The main title: The U0nintentional Banana Ball Catch

After the series is over half of them will say I told you so The other half will say They need to fix X

Blog Post: Cy Young Predictor - 2025 tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

We've come a loooooong way

Blog Post: Raleigh v Judge, via WAR tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

Nice! Had I been a recent graduate, this would have been my ideal job Great opportunity for the up-and-comers out there

Looks interesting... before I read on, here's how I have it: 1901-1919 1920-1946 1947-1968 1969-1992 1993-2009 2010-present

I saw Bobby Shantz once... 5'6", 139 lbs seems very accurate! Even Jose Altuve looks like a giant next to him

Even Frank Drebin knew more about where to position himself than Supes...

Umpire should be on the batter-side, not the opposite-side...

Blog Post: IBB, wOBA and WAR tangotiger.com/index.php/si...

I will be VERY interested to see how catchers (AS BATTERS) request ABS-challenge, knowing an unsuccessful challenge will mean one less arrow in their catcher quiver I will therefore guess catchers-as-batters will have both the lowest challenge rate and the highest success rate

"Not so easy as it looks... is it?" -- Umpire telepathically communicating with players after each unsuccessful challenge

While you are allowed 2 incorrect ABS challenges, you are allowed an infinite number of CORRECT ABS challenges If you have 50% success rate, that means you will average 4 calls per game (2+2) If you have 60% success rate, you will average 5 calls per game (3+2) Practically...

That's a different question. There are two aspects here: 1. The competition among the 30 clubs for the talent. Overpaying one type of player and underpaying another type of player is how clubs differentiate themselves. 2. Finding MLB-caliber players to enter the pool of players to begin with

The top of the O of Chevrolet is 432 feet away, 48 feet high. Hitting that is ~480 feet to landing on the ground

When you present only one version of WAR, you are basically presenting half the picture Half-a-picture is neither art, nor science That leaves either insight or bullsh!t. My money is on the latter

It's entertainment for the fans and practice drills for the players Anyone who doesn't like it can just leave, knowing that the standings don't matter anyway What's the downside exactly? If it was me: I'd have shootout drills BEFORE the game, and use that as the tiebreaker after regulation

Job of saberist is to establish extent of Random Variation, allowing you to sift out the noise to leave you the signal This is why OPS is DOA analytically, a mess of a metric. Power of wOBA is its binomial-like: one standard deviation is simply ~0.5/sqrt(PA). That is POWERFUL