Shohei Ohtani throws five no-hit innings and hits his 50th home run of the year to establish the 50 HR/50 K club, as the Phillies defeat the Dodgers, 9-6.

Currently working on a projection system for fantasy baseball, right now it’s only looking at 2025 stats but I’m working on including 2024 & 2023 stats to better project for 2026. Here’s the top 10 hitters in projected value so far (assuming standard 5x5 league format):

Top 10 players in #MLB by rajWAR through the end of August: 1. Aaron Judge - 7.9 2. Shohei Ohtani - 7.7 3. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 7.4 4. Kyle Tucker - 6.8 5. Geraldo Perdomo - 6.3 6. Kyle Schwarber - 6.3 7. Cal Raleigh - 6.2 8. Paul Skenes - 5.4 9. Zack Wheeler - 5.2 10. Nick Kurtz - 5.1

I'm pleased to announce that I'm now a writer for Prospects Live! I'll mainly be writing about dynasty baseball and prospects, though I'll sometimes write about general baseball analysis. I'm excited for the opportunity and can't wait to begin my journey working in baseball! www.prospectslive.com

There is a non-zero chance that the Pirates DFA Andrew Heaney to make room for Bubba Chandler on the roster. Heaney has bonuses that start when he hits 120 IP, and he’s currently at 119.2 IP. They did something similar to Rowdy Tellez last year, who was 4 PA shy of a $200K bonus before he was DFA’d.

🧵 Since the Jays are leading the AL East and the trade deadline is a couple weeks away, the Jays are without a doubt looking to add. But what do they need? The rotation needs an ace, and every team could use a bullpen arm, but I believe the lineup could use an addition as well. Here's why:

Top 10 Trade Candidates (team <.500 & <=2 yrs of team control) by rajWAR: 1. ARI E. Suárez - 4.0 2. ARI J. Naylor - 2.8 3. MIN H. Bader - 2.8 4. KCR K. Bubic - 2.6 5. ATL C. Sale - 2.4 6. BAL R. O’Hearn - 2.1 7. MIN W. Castro - 1.9 8. ATL M. Ozuna - 1.8 9. TEX A. García - 1.8 10. LAA T. Ward - 1.7

For those who play dynasty baseball (or just enjoy following prospects), there’s a lot of great prospect recommendations by both myself and others!

Just made a reworked version of a swing quality metric I made a couple years ago. The old version had a power component, while this one doesn't (but I'll make another version that includes it). Here are the top 10 hitters by SQ+ (min. 1000 pitches):

The 3rd & 4th overall picks from the 2019 MLB Draft (Andrew Vaughn & JJ Bleday) both got optioned today. I have no way to verify this but I assume that’s the first time two top-5 picks from the same year got optioned on the same day in-season.

Among pitchers with at least 27 IP in both '23 & '24, '23 bFIP is more strongly correlated with '24 ERA than ERA, RA/9, FIP, xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. In other words, bFIP is more predictive of next season's ERA than most other ERA predictors. Check out the linked thread for a quick explainer on bFIP:

I'm sure this has been done before, but I had the idea to create a version of FIP that used statcast barrels instead of home runs, since barrels are stickier than homers year over year and therefore could be more predictive (though I haven't verified this yet).

The team logos of the current AL West standings spells out “ASSHAT” from bottom to top.

This season, #Brewers 1B Jake Bauers currently has more batters faced as a pitcher (11) than plate appearances as a hitter (6). He’s thrown 2 IP across 2 of the Brewers’ first 3 games, and needs just 18 more IP to complete the pitching portion of obtaining two-way player status.

Back at TD Ballpark for another Spring Breakout game! Twins @ Jays today. Flying back home tomorrow so this will be my final spring training game this year. Really enjoyed my experience here!

Day 2: Pirates @ Phillies (Spring Breakout) Lots of interesting prospects playing for both sides, can’t wait to see them all in action!

I’m in Florida for a few days so I figured I’d catch a few spring training games! First up: O’s @ Jays

Not sure how I feel about the O’s now with this news. The rotation was already shaky, and now it’ll start as Eflin/Morton/Kremer/Sugano/Povich, which is… not great. The O’s needed to replace Burnes’ production, but they didn’t, and are stuck with a bottom-10 rotation when they’re looking to compete.

One thing I do to see if I have a good fantasy team is to send it to others and have them guess the # of teams in the league (guess lower = good, guess higher = bad). The draft for one of my main leagues just ended, so guess away! Format: H2H each cat; R, RBI, SB, OBP, TB; K, ERA, WHIP, SV+H, W+QS

Shane Smith, the #WhiteSox Rule 5 pick, looked much better today in his second Spring Training start, throwing 2 perfect IP w/ 3 K vs the #Mariners A-team. In his 1st start his fastball averaged 96.6 mph, already higher than his AAA average of 94.2. Today it averaged 98.3 mph & topped out at 99.6.

Today, #Guardians SP Triston McKenzie threw 12 fastballs, averaging 94 mph. Last year it averaged 91.1, and in the rest of his career it sat between 92-93 mph. Assuming the velo sticks, his fastball would be a much better offering than it was last year (-16 run value, 2nd percentile per Savant).

Here’s the metrics for Clay Holmes’ new changeup, which Statcast mislabeled as a sinker. Only 83 changeups in 2024 were thrown w/ >=89 mph, <=1 in. iVB, & >=45° arm angle. Those CH had a 49% Whiff%, an avg EV of 85 mph, & an avg launch angle of -5°. This could easily be an elite pitch for Holmes.

🧵 With Spring Training now officially underway and most of the impact free agents of the offseason being signed by now, it's time for me to release my 2025 team projections based on rajWAR. Here's a quick thread on what I did to form my projections, and at the end I'll share the results:

The five teams that are still in on Roki Sasaki are the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres, and Rangers. Four of the five teams (CHC, LAD, SDP, TEX) are the four teams that Yu Darvish has played for in his MLB career. The odd team out (TOR) are probably in because they’re in on everybody.

Robert Garcia, who was acquired from the Nats for Nate Lowe, is a big add to the #Rangers bullpen. Despite the 4.22 ERA, most ERA estimators agree he’s an elite RP (2.52 xERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.77 xFIP, 1.88 rajERA). With weak competition in the Texas pen, Garcia could become the opening day closer.

After getting some feedback from a couple of my followers (namely @michaelrosen.bsky.social and @skykalkman.bsky.social), I made an improved version of my Command Run Value model, which I'm calling CRV2 for now. I also calculated CRV2 for 2023, and compared '23 CRV2 per 100 pitches to '24 CRV2/100.

With Carlos Santana signing with the #Guardians, here’s a thread I wrote a few weeks ago on how Santana could potentially improve offensively if he gave up switch-hitting. There’s an outside shot of that happening, but it’s still an interesting thought experiment nonetheless.

Top 5 Pitchers in #MLB by Command Run Value (CRV): 1. Miles Mikolas - 10.9 | #Cardinals 2. Tarik Skubal - 10.3 | #Tigers 3. Justin Steele - 9.6 | #Cubs 4. Joe Ryan - 9.0 | #Twins 5. Cole Irvin - 8.3 | FA George Kirby of the #Mariners, the king of limiting walks, is 16th with a CRV of 6.0.

🧵 I just finished calculating a new pitch-level command model called Command Run Value (CRV), based on the idea quoted below. Here is a short thread on my methodology, and at the end I'll include a table with the CRV of every pitcher and their individual pitches in 2024.

Relievers with at least 10 Savant Pitcher Run Value from an offspeed pitch, 2023+2024 - D. Williams CH - 18 | #Yankees - F. Cruz FS - 16 | #Yankees - T. Kahnle CH - 15 | FA - K. Yates FS - 15 | FA - R. Iglesias CH - 13 | #Braves - R. Garcia CH - 10 | #Nationals - M. Leiter Jr. FS - 10 | #Yankees

There is a positive correlation between BABIP and SBI. Therefore, if you want your batted balls to become hits more often, you must become a chonky boi with hella zoomies.

What if MLB rewarded teams having pitchers with 180+ IP by giving them a draft pick for each pitcher? The draft pick could move up by a round for 200+ IP, and on a game level it’d incentivize teams having their starters pitch deeper into games since more IP = better draft pick.

I’m intrigued by the KBO’s NC Dinos signing Logan S. Allen, formerly of the DBacks. This is the same org that turned Erick Fedde into an average MLB pitcher and Kyle Hart into the best pitcher in the KBO, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen came back to NA in 1-2 years as a much better pitcher.

🧵 Yesterday, the Rule 5 draft took place, and a total of 15 players were selected in the major league portion of the draft. Here is a thread on all 15 players selected, and how they could fare at the MLB level.

Big news: I just bought my own domain, and now I’m domain verified on Bluesky! (my handle is now @rajmehta.ca) The site is still a work in progress, but once it’s complete it’ll feature all of my stats as well as all the player analysis threads that I’ve made on Bluesky.

According to @jon-becker.com's free agent tracker, the value of Juan Soto's contract with the #Mets makes up nearly 50% of the value of all major league free agent contracts signed so far this offseason. Juan Soto signed for $765M; the other 25 signed players have combined for $785M.

2024 xwOBA of hitters in the #Giants projected 2025 lineup: C: Bailey - .321 1B: Wade - .357 2B: Fitzgerald - .295 3B: Chapman - .344 SS: Adames - .344 LF: Ramos - .340 CF: Lee - .324 RF: Yaz - .304 Last year, the Giants were 19th in #MLB by wRC+. This lineup has the potential to be top 10.

🧵 The #Mets have just signed Clay Holmes to a 3-year deal worth about $38 million. This would be about market value if he were to be a reliever, but the Mets intend to try him out as a starter. Here’s how that could look like, and what Holmes would need to do to be effective.

While Luis Severino may not be the best pitcher on the market, the #Athletics had a dire need of starting pitching. Their SPs ranked 26th in ERA, 26th in FIP, and 30th in xFIP in 2024. Severino will be an upgrade in the rotation and is capable of 180+ IP, all for a price that’s around market value.

🧵 Even though Frankie Montas had a bad year in 2024 (4.84 ERA in 150.2 IP), the #Mets are going to make some tweaks with his repertoire to make him better, and to do that they may use the same playbook that they used to turn Luis Severino and Sean Manaea into above-average pitchers. Here's how:

Frankie Montas, who just signed with the #Mets, was a replacement-level pitcher in 2024 (0.3 rajWAR) and is projected for a 5.00 rajERA by my new model. However, the Mets have gotten more out of less (Severino had a 5.32 rajERA in 2023), so maybe they can fix Montas' average pitch shapes.

Currently working on rajERA 2.0 to incorporate rajwOBACON (which is more predictive than the old system I used to calculate batted ball value) and possibly an updated command component.

While I was doing research for my thread on Carlos Santana from earlier today, Tommy Edman (who just signed an extension with the #Dodgers) also popped up as someone that could benefit from ditching switch-hitting. Small sample size, but his swing was much better as a righty than as a lefty.

🧵 Carlos Santana is one of the more underrated options in this #MLB offseason's FA class. His above-average bat (109 OPS+) combined with his Gold Glove defence at 1B gave him 3.4 rajWAR, 11th among all FA. Even then, I believe there's a big change he can make to become even better at the plate.

Top 5 Pitchers in 2024 by rajwOBACON (min. 1000 pitches) 1. Kirby Yates - 0.272 | Free Agent 👀 2. Andre Pallante - 0.285 | #Cardinals 3. Tyler Rogers - 0.295 | #Giants 4. Osvaldo Bido - 0.302 | #Athletics 5. Justin Martinez - 0.316 | #Diamondbacks

🧵 Over the past few days, l've been trying to find a better way to predict xwOBACON for pitchers. Why is this important? Because a pitcher's value mostly stems from avoiding contact (Ks & BBs) and allowing weak contact (xwOBACON). The former is very easy to predict; the latter, not so much.

While I do think Blake Snell was a good signing by the #Dodgers (2.93 rajERA, 3.4 rajWAR in 104 IP), this Dodgers staff desperately needs innings, and I’m not sure if Snell can provide that, as he’s only passed 130 IP (let alone 150) twice in his 9-year career.

Number of times a pitcher has thrown 150+ IP for a team in a season, 2023-24: 7 - PHI, SEA, TOR 6 - ATL, HOU, KCR, NYY, WAS 5 - MIN 4 - ARI, BAL, BOS, CHC, MIL, NYM, STL, TEX 3 - COL, MIA, OAK, PIT, SDP, SFG 2 - CLE, CWS, DET, LAA, TBR 1 - CIN 0 - LAD

Great interview & writeup by @davidlaurila.bsky.social on A’s 2024 draftee Joshua Kuroda-Grauer. I’m a big fan of JKG and loved what he did in both college and the minors. I hope he can take the next step in 2025!

An interesting fact I just discovered: on April 30, 1969, Jim Maloney of the Cincinnati #Reds threw a no-hitter against the Houston #Astros with 5 BB & 13 K in 9 IP. The very next day, Don Wilson of the Astros returned the favour, throwing a no-hitter against the Reds with 6 BB & 13 K in 9 IP.