Debt crises tend to happen gradually and then very quickly. It's impossible to know where on that timeline we might be, but I'd say 2010-2025 is certainly long enough for the first part.

🚨New Treasury letter to Hill calls on Congress to act by mid-July, saying there is a "reasonable probability" of exhausting extraordinary measures in August. @BPC_Bipartisan projection coming next week home.treasury.gov/system/files...

Market odds that US is going to default on its debt are the highest they've been in 2 yrs (last debt limit episode) & higher than many other developed countries. Warning signs are flashing red and a possible upcoming debt limit battle is unlikely to help www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Our own @shaiakabas.bsky.social on what he's paying attention to as Congress gets ready to extend government funding, and a conversation about the debt limit is bubbling up. 🧵 #debtlimit #debtceiling

Random factoid: Other than resignations/deaths in office, Reagan-George HW Bush will be the only successive presidents of the same party in 100 years

New letter from Secretary Yellen to Congress explains that the debt limit will be reinstated on Jan. 2, but due to technical reasons, Treasury will not reach the limit and begin extraordinary measures until a few weeks later (~Jan 13-24) home.treasury.gov/system/files...

It would be a terrible mistake for Congress to repeal Social Security's Windfall Elimination Provision & Government Pension Offset on their way out the door. Bipartisan experts agree on reforming these provisions, not outright repeal www.forbes.com/sites/benrit...