At this point it is clear that the debate over predictive vs. inferential statistics is over and predictive statistics is and always has been the future. If you’re still doing inferential statistics, it’s like doing stats from the 90s.

Paul Ehrlich died. Imagine making a prediction this wrong: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death... At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..."

I’m actually kind of pissed at how useful differential privacy is.

IYKYK

Straight killing the pinewood derby today! 🙌👑

Context is king

“These days are going to pass like a grass fire/ so don’t let anybody tell you that you’re safe”

My paper on Climate Migration and Demographic Amplification was selected as the Finalist for the Cozzarelli Prize! (www.nasonline.org/news/2024-co...)

Now is probably the best time to consider leaving the academy. Sadly, it’s probably only going to get worse from here.

Just casually browsing Reddit when you see your study.

This might be my favorite gingerbread man we decorated.

Not a bad 2024. 6 papers, including 1 in PNAS and 1 in Demography with @valmuellerasu.bsky.social!

"The Birth Cohorts Most Responsible for Carbon Emissions" along with @ezagheni.bsky.social and @akjorgenson.bsky.social osf.io/preprints/so...

“Even In Ancient Roman Egypt, Urban Women had Lower Fertility than Rural Women.” We use Roman Census data for AD 12 to AD 259 to estimate total fertility rates. osf.io/preprints/so...

Went ahead and uploaded some newish working papers to SocArxiv.

Huge congratulations to my Florida State Univ Population Center colleagues Mike McFarland and Matt Hauer (@drdemography.bsky.social) on this important and very newsworthy (!!) paper on the impact of leaded gasoline on US public health. #demography acamh.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

More news coverage of our new paper on legacy lead exposure! www.usnews.com/news/health-...

Coverage of a new paper about legacy lead exposure! www.dailymail.co.uk/health/artic...

New paper coming out tomorrow and I will probably drop the info for it here as opposed to That Other Place.

Testing the waters over here again.

I never needed to stretch my abs in my 20s. But now? Holy crap does it feel good!

🚨Call for Applications!🚨Population & Social Data Science Summer Incubator Program @mpidr.bsky.social with @drdemography.bsky.social @conteristo.bsky.social @ezagheni.bsky.social @akbaritabar.bsky.social @jiisu.bsky.social @monjalexander.bsky.social www.demogr.mpg.de/en/career_61...

I don’t think I can post gifs here. Bummer.

Grant successfully submitted! 🙌

The Pope with a clear shot at the neomalthusians. It is so crystal clear that consumption practices — and not population levels — are the real drivers of climate change. And, in particular, the consumption practices of the wealthiest among us.

I wrote a grant this week by chunking my daily writing into manageable pieces. 1000 words per day. I forgot how easy it is write like this. I wrote my dissertation like this but haven’t written a paper or a grant like this since.

Some people are table people and love tables. Some people are picture people and loathe tables. Reviewers are usually a mix of both, the public is usually picture people. And remember, a good figure is worth 1000 tables.

I’ve already written 1700 words for a grant today. I’m in pace to finish this up tomorrow! 🙌

So looks like the NAS concluded that differential privacy degraded the quality of the 2020 Census and was rushed into production instead of being properly tested. Many of us were saying these exact things back in 2017/2018.

Almost missed the PAA deadline because I was having problems logging in. But I got my papers submitted in the end!

This place BLEW UP for me over the last few days. Looks like I’ll be spending more time over here!