@tashecon.bsky.social
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📥 60
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Economist, geopolitical thinker. I write a lot about Ukraine and Turkey. LUFC.
The IMF admitted their programme for Ukraine is undergunded by $65bn - Europe cannot write that cheque without resort to using immobilised CBR assets.
timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-an...
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Ukraine and the IMF - a reality cheque
Bloomberg is running a story suggesting that the IMF is now suggesting its $15.5bn four year EFF is now underfunded by $65 billion for the period to the end of the programme at the end of Q1 2027.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-and-the-imf-a-reality-cheque?r=ynli4
about 19 hours ago
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cepa.org/article/ukra...
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Ukraine: The Coming Storm
Ukraine must be properly financed by Europe or unthinkable consequences will follow. Decision-time is fast approaching.
https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-the-coming-storm/
8 days ago
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Russia is going to be made to pay!
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Russia is going to pay!
Finally!
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/russia-is-going-to-pay?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
9 days ago
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We are making progress in the push to seize CBR assets -
youtu.be/bRU4xfE4onI?...
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Europe makes moves to cripple Putin's finances | Tim Ash
YouTube video by Times Radio
https://youtu.be/bRU4xfE4onI?feature=shared
11 days ago
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The IMF needs to plan for a long war scenario in Ukraine. Here is why and how.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - the IMF should plan for a long war
Two things of note:
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-the-imf-should-plan-for-a?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
12 days ago
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Europe has no choice now but to seize CBR assets.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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CBR assets have to be seized for Ukraine
Europe has now run out of alternatives
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/cbr-assets-have-to-be-seized-for?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
13 days ago
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Ukraine - time is not on Europe’s side.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - time is not on Europe’s side
A range of Ukraine related stuff to comment over this morning.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-time-is-not-on-europes-side?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
14 days ago
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Trump and Putin are stalling, Europe failing while Ukrainuans die.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Putin & Trump are stalling, Europe failing, Ukrainians dying
Clear signals coming from both Moscow and Washington now in terms of the war in Ukraine.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/putin-and-trump-are-stalling-europe?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
15 days ago
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Is Bosnia on the brink? Some implications for Europe.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Bosnia on the brink?
Is an unsuspecting Europe about to face another security crisis?
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/bosnia-on-the-brink?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
19 days ago
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My Chatham House piece on the challenhes facing the Russian economy and the opportunities thet presents yo the West to tighten sanctiobs to screw Putin.
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fort...
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The ‘Fortress Russia’ economy has adapted well to pressure. But stagflation presents an opportunity for the West
Now could be the time to ratchet up sanctions pressure on Putin and change Moscow’s risk analysis of prolonging the war.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fortress-russia-economy-has-adapted-well-pressure-stagflation-presents-opportunity-west
19 days ago
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Ukraine - V is for Victory Bond,
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - V for Victory (bond)
The numbers just don’t add up for the IMF programme
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-v-for-victory-bond?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
21 days ago
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I spoke with David Debatto on Ukraine, Russia and sanctions, et al.
www.protectingtherepublic.com/p/natoeu-cow...
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NATO/EU Cowardice is Killing Ukraine
Timothy Ash discusses the continuing failure of leadership within NATO and the EU
https://www.protectingtherepublic.com/p/natoeu-cowardice-is-killing-ukraine
23 days ago
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Actually - Clueless in Alaska,
timothyash.substack.com/p/clueless-i...
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Clueless in Alaska
A few notable developments over the past 24H:
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/clueless-in-alaska?r=ynli4
about 1 month ago
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Trump welcomes back the USSR,
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Trump welcomes back the USSR
I don’t think it is an exaggeration to describe Trump’s meeting in the White House later today with President Zelensky, and the A-list of European leaders including Starmer, Macron, Merz, Rutte, von d...
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/trump-welcomes-back-the-ussr?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 month ago
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Trump just does not get Putin.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Trump just does not get Putin
Donald Trump probably believed his own spin when, during the US election campaign, he suggested continuously that he could bring an end to the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/trump-just-does-not-get-putin?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 month ago
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www.kyivpost.com/opinion/58008
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Opinion: Ukraine – A Q&A Around War and Peace
A question and answer with columnist Timothy Ash.
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/58008
about 1 month ago
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I explore EM resilience in the face of US risks
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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EM resilience in the face of US risk
Emerging Markets have had a stellar start to the year so far with both hard currency and even local markets, FX and rates, posting strong double digit returns.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/em-resilience-in-the-face-of-us-risk?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 month ago
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nv.ua/ukr/opinion/...
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Новий Мюнхен. Чому Трамп вирішив здати Україну Путіну
Багато українців уже зробили висновок після «пастки», улаштованої для Зеленського в Білому домі на початку цього року: зрештою Трамп зрадить їх і здасть Україну Путіну
https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/tramp-zdast-ukrajinu-putinu-timoti-esh-pro-rizkiy-rozvorot-trampa-50536336.html
about 1 month ago
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Ukraine - A Q&A around war and peace.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - a Q&A around war and peace
Given all the focus on the upcoming Trump - Putin summit in Alaska on August 15 - and the considerable uncertainty therein - I thought it perhaps useful to lay down some of the facts around the state ...
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-a-q-and-a-around-war-and?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 month ago
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Trump’s Nobel prize rides roughshod over Ukraine.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Trump’s Nobel quest
Trump seems desperate to secure a Nobel peace prize - it’s the one thing that former President Obama secured which Trump is lacking.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/trumps-nobel-quest?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 1 month ago
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Ukraine frozen out in Alaska, some thoughts,
timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-fr...
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Ukraine frozen out in Alaska
News of the venue for the Putin - Trump summit, Alaska, is the clearest indication yet that the two leaders want to showcase a great power summit - akin to Yalta - where the two leaders divide up the ...
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-frozen-out-in-alaska?r=ynli4
about 2 months ago
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Some perspectives on a Trump - Putin - Zelensky peace summit.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - don’t hold your breath on peace talks
Putin played hard to get, and in the end he got exactly what he wanted, which was a bilateral “Great Power” summit with Trump.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-dont-hold-your-breath-on?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 2 months ago
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Europe faces the prospects of decades of wars and insecurity.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Europe faces the prospect of decades of war and insecurity
A truly grim outlook
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/europe-faces-the-prospect-of-decades?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
about 2 months ago
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I spoke with Reuters on tariffs on India and prospects for peace in Ukraine.
sg.news.yahoo.com/kremlin-call...
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Kremlin calls talks between Putin and U.S. envoy Witkoff 'useful'
STORY: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on Wednesday met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, two days before a deadline set by Donald Trump for Russia to agree to peace in Ukraine or face new sanctions.Kre...
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/kremlin-calls-talks-between-putin-162206276.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHrm-gtAtGZgOvuNqlFHQguRV4UPxjtJah1cYjCWAX1DeD81HqDdBuzu_D_FBedrYyb9roJXEln97Jt6hrJAg6E1Q2ROHhEZT8-rWQxUFSX5JH3yEIbRCmHNFRfaRpADy0pafGRDNy8DJQFByBfsMvE1w-lEk7ctuwllBoQEilIg
about 2 months ago
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgpc...
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🔥Moscow Has Crossed ALL LINES! Putin's Economy in Collapse. Russian Oligarchs Face Serious Troubles
YouTube video by War & Politics 24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgpc4-Cf86U&t=141s
about 2 months ago
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www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/inde...
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Independent Thinking: Trump’s tools – tariffs and sanctions
Christopher Sabatini, Timothy Ash and Christopher Vandome join the podcast to discuss the Trump administration’s use of tariffs and sanctions.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/07/independent-thinking-trumps-tools-tariffs-and-sanctions
about 2 months ago
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timothyash.substack.com/p/live-strea...
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Live stream discussion with Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at RBC Bluebay, on Russia sanctions and Ukraine
A recording from Timothy Ash and Robin J Brooks's live video
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/live-stream-discussion-with-tim-ash?r=ynli4
2 months ago
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Zelensky is not the problem here, Putin is:
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Zelensky is not the problem
Disappointing to read some talking heads in the Western media arguing that Zelensky is now the problem and should step aside - see article therein in the UK’s Daily Telegraph:
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/zelensky-is-not-the-problem?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
2 months ago
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Zelensky, or Yermak, present PR gift to Putin - please backtrack!
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Zelensky presents Putin with PR gift
Zelensky has presented Ukraine’s European financial backers with a huge dilemma with his move against NABU and SAPO which has spurred big demonstrations in Kyiv and other cities.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/zelensky-presents-putin-with-pr-gift?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
2 months ago
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www.intellinews.com/ash-t-rkiye-...
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ASH: Türkiye – geopolitical opportunity knocks
Türkiye faces a remarkable set of geopolitical challenges and opportunities at present which have the potential to give big wins but also present ...
https://www.intellinews.com/ash-t-rkiye-geopolitical-opportunity-knocks-392030/
2 months ago
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My Times Radio interview talking about sanctions on Russia and immobilised RU assets.
m.youtube.com/watch?v=ie4H...
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Secondary sanctions could 'absolutely crash Russia's economy' but only if Trump follows through
YouTube video by Times Radio
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ie4HPsPjvU4&pp=0gcJCfwAo7VqN5tD
2 months ago
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Turkiye - - geopolitical opportunity knocks.
timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-ge...
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Türkiye - geopolitical opportunity knocks
Türkiye faces a remarkable set of geopolitical challenges and opportunities at present which have the potential to give big wins but also present new headaches for President Erdogan.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-geopolitical-opportunity?r=ynli4
2 months ago
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Is Trump finally going to call Putin to account?
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Is Trump finally set to call Putin to account?
Lots of people try to understand Trump and Russia - why when Trump appears to have all the cards, has he chosen not to play them?
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/is-trump-finally-set-to-call-putin?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
2 months ago
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It’s a 15-1 payoff for European NATO to fund Ukraine to beat Russia. Herein why?
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - Oops, the IMF did it again
The IMF published its latest staff report required for sign off on the latest, the eighth review, on it is $15.5bn EFF with Ukraine:
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-oops-the-imf-did-it-again?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
3 months ago
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A Q&A on Turkiye -
timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-q-...
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Turkiye - Q&A
I get asked lots of questions about my views on Turkiye - I thought best to respond via a Q&A.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-q-and-a-d80?r=ynli4
3 months ago
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I look at how opportunity often impacts on geopolitical outcomes.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Geopolitics - when opportunity knocks
All the focus at present is on the on-going war between Israel and Iran but this just reminds us again of the importance of geopolitics and its ability to impact on markets and the global economy.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/geopolitics-when-opportunity-knocks?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
3 months ago
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Ukraine - IMF/G7 need rethink on financing.
timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-a-...
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Ukraine - a long war suggests financing adjustments
I long argued last year against an early Eurobond debt restructuring in Ukraine and that it made more sense to extend the debt moratorium until the end of the war when macro assumptions would be clear...
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-a-long-war-suggests-financing?r=ynli4
3 months ago
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Rutte’s charade for Trump,
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Rutte’s charade
I was “in da house”, Chatham House, for NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte’s speech on NATO’s priorities/agenda in the run up to the Hague summit looming in a couple of weeks.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ruttes-charade?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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nv.ua/ukr/opinion/...
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«Хто першим кліпне». В яку гру грає Дональд Трамп
Після повного провалу в мирних переговорах щодо війни в Україні Трамп переключився на спробу швидко досягти укладення угоди з Іраном стосовно його ядерної програми
https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/tramp-bojitsya-viyni-timoti-esh-rozpoviv-pro-tisk-na-iran-50520194.html
4 months ago
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Some comments on a scary new world geopolitical order.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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A scary new geopolitical reality
Bravery needed in the new world order
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/a-scary-new-geopolitical-reality?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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Ukraine just redefined warfare and took agency in its own peace talks. Some thoughts,
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine just redefined warfare
And gave Zelensky a full pack of cards
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-just-redefined-warfare?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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In this Times Radio interview i provide some historical economic setting to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He planned the invasion years in advance.
youtu.be/gwGSMFfySAk
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Putin's regime faces 'terminal' threat from 500% US tariffs - if Trump uses them
YouTube video by Times Radio
https://youtu.be/gwGSMFfySAk
4 months ago
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Sir Humphrey is blocking Ukraine’s victory.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Sir Humphrey is blocking Ukraine’s victory
For the past three years plus I have been active in various campaign groups trying to GET RUSSIA TO PAY, specifically for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and utilising therein the $330 billion in C...
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/sir-humphrey-is-blocking-ukraines?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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Ukraine - what everyone wants from peace and war. Some thoughts,
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Ukraine - what everyone wants?
Ukraine - what everyone wants
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/ukraine-what-everyone-wants?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
4 months ago
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Me on Times Radio talking Trump & Russia, et al.
youtu.be/frIHe2JFqi4?...
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Putin’s economic disaster as powers turn to Nato to by weapons | Tim Ash
YouTube video by Times Radio
https://youtu.be/frIHe2JFqi4?si=DpSO63wuC8KnGs4r
5 months ago
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I had the pleasure of appearing with Yuliya Ziskina on Jonathan Fink’s Silicone Curtain to update on frozen RU assets. ehttps://youtu.be/ZFOV7JjwGOY
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Yuliya Ziskina & Timothy Ash - Seizing Russian Assets Must be Treated as Matter of National Security
YouTube video by Silicon Curtain
https://youtu.be/ZFOV7JjwGOY
5 months ago
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What is Zelensky’s strategy now?
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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What is Zelensky’s strategy now?
My sense is that both Zelensky and his Ukrainian negotiating team have already concluded that the peace deal that Trump is trying to force thru simply cannot be sold at home.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/what-is-zelenskys-strategy-now?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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Zelensky may well say no.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Zelensky may well say no
Recent days seem to have all but confirmed the worst case scenario for Ukraine - that the Trump administration has sold it down the river to Russia.
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/zelensky-may-well-say-no?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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My comments on Putin’s easyer truce offer.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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Putin is game playing with Easter truce offer
Again…
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/putin-is-game-playing-with-easter?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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A fools guide to Putin and Ukraine for Steve Witkoff, et al.
open.substack.com/pub/timothya...
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A fools guide to Putin and Ukraine
Hoping Steve Witkoff reads this
https://open.substack.com/pub/timothyash/p/a-fools-guide-to-putin-and-ukraine?r=ynli4&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
5 months ago
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