“Trump is weak. MAGA is eroding.” Democrats swept the 2025 elections, revealing huge demographic shifts and a growing rebuke of Trumpism. Don Lemon and I unpack why the GOP’s coalition is collapsing and what it signals for 2026.

Jake is an incredible journalist and good dude. Definitely subscribe to his Substack and support his work 👇🏾

While layoffs hit recession-like levels, Trump’s tariffs raise prices and he worsens the job market with his federal worker purges. Meanwhile, he enriches himself with crypto grifts, pardons his partners, and remodels the White House. And the GOP wonders why they’re losing?

If the Republican Party wasn't delusional, they'd start reckoning with the fact that Trump is a politically weak, lame duck president. But looks like they want to ride this down to the bottom.

Can people stop pretending 2024 delivered Trump and the GOP a cultural mandate now? People voted out the incumbent party because of inflation. That was it. Then Trump proceeded to abuse his power and raise prices while enriching himself and his friends. Americans are pissed.

Real-world election results showcasing what countless polls have told us: Trump is incredibly unpopular and GOP is cooked, deep fried, flambéed.

Dems tonight

Vibe shift underway

The 2017 Virginia governor’s race was a bellwether for the 2018 midterms, giving us insight into how swiftly suburbs & key demographics mobilized against Trump. It’s 2025, and here we go again. 2026, GOP is likely cooked and they know it. Trump’s power grabs are panic attacks.

I live across from my polling place, and all day there were a bunch of hype Arab teenage boys urging people to vote for Zohran Mamdani. Just joyful af. They’re around the age I was when Obama won. That feeling of someone who looks like you finally rising to power. It’s inspiring.

My Brooklyn block is so poppin with Zohran volunteers you’d think it was Obama 08. This campaign is sprinting full speed through the finish line man

Happy birthday to my love, my best friend, my beautiful wife

Trump is weaker than he appears. His approval rating is below 40%. GOP lawmakers in key states are pushing back on his gerrymandering efforts. He's seeing mounting court losses on ICE's tactics and his Project 2025 federal layoffs. Trump is racking up the Ls.

This is why Trump is desperately pursuing mid-decade gerrymandering: Dems are way ahead in every credible generic ballot poll. Trump’s fear of losing the midterms is behind all his authoritarian power grab attempts. The GOP knows it’s cooked. Their moves are based in weakness.

Obama is delivering a really succinct takedown of Nixon’s Southern Strategy, which Trump has exploited to new levels. Trump scapegoats minorities and immigrants for America’s problems while policymaking for the rich. He feeds his base grievance while doing nothing to help them.

Seeing some clout-chasing far-right grifters wore Black face for Halloween. Y’all know this era of shamelessness will end but your digital footprint will still be here, right?

It’s unclear whether JD Vance totally abandoned his principles for MAGA or never had any principles to begin with. But one this is clear: This far-right, un-American, anti-multicultural nonsense he’s been on for a while now is antithetical to what actually makes America great.

I believe ProPublica over Kristi Noem

Trump is laying the groundwork to interfere in the 2026 midterms. He’s installing election deniers at DHS who want him to abuse emergency powers to change state election rules. But Democrats who won key battleground states in 2022 could disrupt his plans.

With some major news networks making a pivot to the right (CBS), and the future ownership of others in a state of uncertainty (looming potential Ellison acquisition of CNN), independent media is becoming increasingly important

I launched on Substack 2 years ago, aiming to build an independent media platform for truth-telling in an age of disinformation. 200 articles, 10k+ subscribers, 30 cable news hits, and 80M views later, we’re making an impact. Thank you for being part of it!

Trump and Bessent bailed out Argentina to help Milei’s midterms and enrich Bessent’s hedge fund friends. All while US farmers and ranchers struggle. I talked about this on MSNBC last week:

I was waiting for when Trump would move from falsely calling things “fake news” to calling them AI. The Reagan quote was real. As AI advances, the disinformation from this administration will advance too. We gotta be prepared for that.

Trump rewarded Changpeng Zhao, a business partner who boosted his crypto venture, with a pardon for crimes that Zhao pleaded guilty to. Trading presidential favors for self-interest. You can’t get more classically corrupt than this.

One of the most interesting points made on the panel last night:

Trump is empowering election deniers in key positions, like Heather Honey at CISA. But elections are run by states. This is why the 2022 midterms, where election deniers lost state-level races in all key battleground states, was so consequential. Democrats run those states.

Your periodic reminder that Trump is a wildly unpopular president, and his authoritarian actions are acts of desperation rooted in his deepening political weakness and fear of losing the midterms.

Under Trump’s tariff damage, there are mounting economic risks. Unregulated AI is propping up the market. There are 1,300 AI startups worth $100M+, 500 worth $1B+, many with little to no revenue. There’s an AI bubble, a buy-now-pay-later bubble, and other risks—all unfolding with no guardrails.

The only coherent through line in Trump’s economic policy is what’s in it for Donald and his friends. Trump’s trade war hurt US farmers. Now he’s bailing out Argentina with $40B, half from US taxpayers, to help Milei’s midterms & Bessent’s hedge-fund friends. Pure cronyism.

I’ll be on MSNBC’s @11thhourmsnbc.bsky.social with @stephruhle.bsky.social at 11pm EST tonight for the full hour for an awesome Nightcap panel with @chrislhayes.bsky.social, @timobrien.bsky.social, and @jakelahut.writes.news. Tune in 🙌🏾

Trump: The ranchers are so happy for what I’ve done The ranchers:

On top of his crypto grifts, real estate deals, and other corrupt ways he profits from the presidency, Trump now literally wants his own DOJ to pay him $230M. He does this all while his tariffs raise prices on Americans. An insane, unprecedented level of blatant corruption.

There’s a narrative that resistance to Trump’s second term is weaker than the first. Data indicates the opposite. There have actually been over 3x more protests in Trump’s second term than the first, and No Kings 2 was the largest single-day political protest in US history.

Nearly 7 million Americans just peacefully protested Trump, showcasing his political weakness and contradicting his false narratives of violence. Meanwhile, his team is posting AI slop depicting him in a crown literally shitting on Americans. You tell me which side won the day.

These were not “a bunch of kids.” This group chat included Republican officials in their 20s & mid-to-late 30s, some even older than me. This hatred is inexcusable. I’m 32. It’s news to me that “I’m just a stupid baby” is a credible defense if someone criticizes something I say.

In a sane reality, this insane comment would’ve ended the career of any other press secretary. In this reality, it’s just another Thursday. But when the Trump fever breaks, and it will break, these people will have to reckon with the digital footprints of their own depravity.

These unified acts of defiance matter

This is an overt lie from JD Vance. The CATO Institute and a study cited on the DOJ’s own website (before Trump scrubbed it) found that far-right extremists commit significantly more politically motivated murders than the left. I cited this data on CNN a couple weeks ago.

The GOP underestimated the impact of the women’s march in Trump’s first term and how it would galvanize the movement that eventually ousted him from office. This time they’ve swung the other way and sound like they’ve been traumatized and personally targeted by the mere idea of a protest.

The Trump Admin is desperately trying to falsely defame the No Kings protests as a paid "Antifa" operation because they know the image of millions of Americans organically protesting Trump highlights their deepening unpopularity. The lies are a mask for their weakness.

The radicalization of young men is a problem. The path from lonely incel to loser far-right nutjob is paved with algorithmic grifters preying on their insecurities. Rather than taking ownership over their lives & becoming real men, many fall for the scapegoating far-right grift.

When Johnson was asked about Trump's Jan 6 pardons, he defended them: "The president has the pardon & commutation authority.… There was a weaponization… The prosecutions that happened after Jan 6… The president made his decision. I don't second-guess those." This is a lie👇🏾

More than general concepts, Ahmed breaks down specifically where Trump policies are costing all of us money and impacting our livelihoods for no benefit to us.

Worth a read!

Trump's tariffs are raising prices. His federal purges are surging Black unemployment. His ICE raids are damaging local economies. Dems don't have to pick between affordability & democracy messaging. Trump's authoritarianism is a kitchen table issue.

I really appreciate how Ahmed Baba @ahmedbaba.bsky.social listens to the other people at this table, acknowledges their contributions, then pulls in his own thoughts.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is one of the only Republicans who sees where this is headed. Trump is weak. He’s tanking the economy and raising prices. He’s underwater on key issues. The GOP is likely headed to a midterm loss. This isn’t a moral awakening. MTG is positioning herself for a post-Trump GOP.

Trump & Vought are exploiting the shutdown to accelerate Project 2025. They're on track to hit 300k ousted federal workers by the end of 2025. They just ousted 4.2k more. The purge of nonpartisan civil servants aims to twist the federal bureaucracy into a loyalist tool of Trump.

Authoritarianism has a cost. Trump's tariffs are based on a fake economic emergency declaration. His federal purges are surging Black unemployment. His cruel ICE raids are damaging local economies. Trump's abuses of power are hitting Americans' wallets. Dems should say that.

I’ll be on @msnbc.com’s The Weekend Primetime at 8:15 pm EST tonight to talk about the government shutdown with Ayman Mohyeldin, @ahylton26.bsky.social, and @paoramos.bsky.social. Tune in 🙌🏾