It’s one thing to make a highly irresponsible loan for dubious (foreign aid isn’t dubious. Neither is helping the people of Argentina. But seeking to influence their elections. In this manner. Is.) purposes. It is something else entirely to give (not lend) a foreign gov money.

Unusual. Extraordinary. These words do not capture what was just announced by Sec Bessent. Arg isn’t a country w/ ample USD reserves (typical of nations participating in a USD ‘swap line’). Argentina has negative USD reserves. And the ARS is no EUR, CAD, GBP, JPY as a stable store of value.

This Sukkot, our hope is that everyone across this land soon dismantle their temporary structures and find home again. May every single family soon live in permanent safety and peace.

It’s pretty simple. Borrowing costs are a function of both perceived capability & perceived willingness to pay. Neither entity is perceived as incapable of paying while the board of Microsoft is perceived as much more trustworthy in its willingness to pay than the leadership of the US gov at present

Years ago I would piggy back on this w/ some snark like ״ליגה אחרת״ באמת. But truth be told there is nothing funny about this moment in time. He’s an outlaw. A war criminal.

All four of these ladies tonight have been playing outstanding tennis. Sinner & Alcaraz justifiably deserve all the accolades they are receiving for raising the men’s game after the soaring heights of the big 3. But we are also seeing the women’s game better than ever. Two fantastic semis.

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🤬🤬🤬 1) I for one doubt this. You’ve produced 0 evidenced. 2) There’s 19 members, 12 that are voting at any given time but there are 100s of staff employed in the Federal Reserve System to make decisions concerning monetary policy and financial stability. 3) most importantly…

Kudos to Lisa Abramowicz for asking James Bullard on the air about the attacks and threats made on FOMC members. It's not enough that such actions are maligned off the record. It needs to be condemned forcefully on the record. Bullard's on air answer was shameful and wholly disqualifying.

Yeah little ambiguity as to why it is that Fed Governor Cook of all her colleagues is the Gov that Miller & Vought have identified as their test case for their scheme to sabotage the composition of the FOMC.

Dostoyevsky

Calling this an insult to injury isn’t doing it justice. We are depriving our friends & neighbors who have been willing to make the ultimate sacrifice on all of our behalf if need be of their livelihood & depriving them of their accrued savings on top. It’s outrageous. Shanda

This is a relief. Miran is insane. He’ll just be a lone voice of 19 in FOMC meetings & I gather won’t really have much influence on other members for a few meetings. Having him there permanently would be a major distraction. Having him chair the committee would be a recipe for dysfunction.

Uh this is as close to a worst case scenario as can be (presuming it’s to give him a spot on the board so that he can then be elevated to chair). Worst than even Shelton & Moore from last term. It’s a recipe for dysfunction & a breakdown in what had been consensus governance by the FOMC.

lol I didn’t even include in here any considerations from debt auctions on schedule (which bc of debt ceiling shenanigans earlier in the year are elevated). Obviously changes to baseline gov spending in the near term only makes the decision even harder.

Not an easy position to be in for a FOMC member over the coming weeks. The current policy is above the long term neutral rate. The labor market is weakening considerably. But changes in the price level are above its explicit target & trending further away.

Damn, tough way for a streak to fall.

Stop the war now Statement by the Dept of Middle Eastern Studies, BGU Israel's policy in Gaza and the type of warfare there exceed all human or legal standards. The Israeli policy is making Gaza a place unfit for living and has led to the killing of tens of thousands of innocent people.... 1/

It's really really really important that people don't forget that Democrats contributed to the demonization of immigrants. They spent 2 or 3 years trying to pretend that they were as tough as Republicans, thereby validating the slander spread by the right. This led directly to where we are.

We already have a free trade agreement w/ Mexico. It carries the weight of a treaty ratified by the US Senate. It has been & will continue to be unconstitutional to impose tariffs no matter the bs pretext 😡 cites. We have one w/ SK too for the matter not that Thune or SCOTUS have an oz of integrity

Ha first & foremost this is a ludicrous analogy. Bonkers. Second, it will only likely achieve the opposite of its intended result; FOMC members today are zealous of guarding the perception of policy free of political interference. Third, acknowledgement that there may not be an opening on the FOMC.

Nathan is of course right. But I’m going to elaborate further (over my best judgment that I am in anyway validating a stupid notion that increases in debt should be a primary consideration when evaluating the record of a presidential term)…The FY of the US gov runs Oct-Sep. Federal outlays

This type of stuff happened in Israel a decade ago. The IDF high brass & Mossad leadership defied orders & were very open about it in the press when their gov service came to an end. Bibi, furious that intelligence & military leadership is his only real opposition has since then successfully

These are honestly the worst ? I’ve ever heard during a FOMC presser. Questioning the FOMC that being data dependent should mean retroactive data & is mutually exclusive from being forward looking & taking into account expectations? Amateur hour.

Of course the only certainty from all of this is that whatever the likelihood that Iran ever decided to both breakout & weaponize a nuclear warhead…it is now much much likelier.

I continue to be impressed by how much 😡 goes about accomplishing the very opposite of what he is seeking to achieve

His constitution & fortitude (at such a young age) is unparalleled. I remember watching him at Wimbledon a few years back coming back down a set 2x & a break in the 5th set while he was still a teenager. He is a complete player w/ no flaws. But this more than anything might be his biggest strength.

Yeah alcaraz isn’t playing his best. But if sinner is able to return like that on 1st serves he’s just on another level. This match isn’t over; Carlos has incredible mental strength & grit & just refuses to quit. But w/ sinner playing like this only someone who thumps 1st serve - & does so at a

That was a fun first game. It’s going to take a lot live up to yesterday but it will hopefully be a doozy. And I like seeing alcaraz play sinner straight up. What he did against sinner at IW was masterful tactically but I want to see them play their best w/out mucking it up.

That was a fantastic final. It had everything. Great shot making. Gritty comebacks. Twists and turns galore, especially that first set. Congrats Coco! Aryna thinks she played terrible but her game entails lots of UE & in windy conditions serve % is going to be down. It was great 🎾.

As someone who has donated to the organization, was active in its leadership trainings, & participated in its lobbying days I regrettably wholeheartedly agree. The last 11 years have been problematic (not that it was perfect before; no institution is) but it’s irredeemable at this point.

That was a really beautiful dialogue between andrei medvedev & andrei agassi. It was really neat to learn the backstory about agassi motivating medvedev to not quit just weeks before & see how much they both admired one another. Anybody who see this (not just tennis fans) would really enjoy it.

Very very bearish 2s. A pretty high bar was set for the Fed’s reaction function moving forward on making any kind of deviation from the status quo in the near future.

Isn’t the whole national security imperative that is used as justification for all this nonsense about onshoring specifically these very industries?

For anyone who comes across this message & isn’t familiar…immigration parole isn’t at all like parole from prison. It’s a form of legal status (often for humanitarian or medical reasons but there are others too). These are not undocumented people coming w/ out permission.

1) no fucking shit (not directed to you @jsphctrl.ft.com ) 2) In a few years we’re going to hear complaints about nations ‘changing their minds’ and lamenting that there aren’t more formalized norms & even mechanisms upholding commitments that nations make to one another- to which see #1

Alright so in:re tariffs on MX & CA: 25 %. Nvm most things will be tariff free except for goods not meeting USMCS standards. Nvm potash is 10%. Nvm even steel & aluminum that is USMCA compliant is 25 %. Nvm all USMCA is now (at least) 10% (this is a ? b/c even the freakin treasury

And the plan is to enact policy that they* estimate will require 5.3 trillion more in new issuance over the next 10 years relative to the current baseline yet are claiming will only require 1.5 trillion in the coming weeks if you want a spot check on how in touch w/ reality these 🤡 are.

Today has felt like 4 days.

1) We don’t pay more for meds b/c of where they are produced. We pay more b/c the party he is nominally the leader of actively inhibits monopsony purchasing that our peer nations engage in. 2) ‘His’ tax cut in 2017 incentivized production to move offshore. www.cfr.org/report/cross...

Wow

I’m going to vent for a little bit to blow off some steam by teasing out why CEA chair Miran’s speech is absurd. The most charitable explanation is that he doesn’t actually understand what all he’s asking of other nations. If he actually does- he’s out of his freakin mind.

Shonda upon Shonda upon Shonda.

I’ll come back to this tonight but that it’s unhinged is only part of the story. It’s asking every nation to usurp their private sectors, suspend democratic governance (in the nation’s that have it) permanently, & subordinate the liberties & well-being of their nations to ours. All in pursuit of

I’m not one for pointing out hypocrisy of those who hold different political opinions than I do. But I really really want to see the likes of Mike Lee, Ted Cruz, & the rest of the 🤡s who self label as ‘constitutionalists™️’ address this in front of a camera.

Whatever salience existed in our national consciousness of the unimaginable cruelty we have inflicted on these poor souls has dissipated bc of the carnage in markets but I’m at a loss of words for what our nation has done to these people. We all have to bear witness & make this our #1 priority.

I’m just a boring sov debt analyst but putting on a long Costco & short Target (or any other traditional retailer that doesn’t make it’s profit from membership fees) was the fattest of fat pitches right down the heart of the plate w/ steel trash cans banging to give us the heads up to boot.

I’m not being hyperbolic when stating that there has been permanent & irreparable damage in regards to 🇺🇸 standing in the world in recent weeks. I by no means mean to belittle the absolute cruelty & horrors we are inflicting on 1000s of people at the moment but it’s important to unequivocally assert

The full EO has finally been posted for those interested. It clears up some ? I had. Today’s EO leaves current CA & MX policy in place. Autos & steel have their cut outs to their previously announced duties. It does say there is intent to apply the tariffs to goods currently exempt on de minimis