Tonight, I put together a Primary Forecast for the LA Mayor Race. It's based on the forecast I normally used for Governor Races. My forecast shows Karen Bass is likely to survive the first round, with 30.76%.

Final Projections for California Governor🧵 Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.

Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D+7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025. Link -> www.racetothewh.com/polls/generi...

It's a huge primary day today - we've got elections in Georgia for the Senate & Governor races and primaries in AL, KY, and TX (part 2). Here's my predictions for each race, based on my Primary Forecast: 1. Georgia R Senate to Face Ossoff: Projection: Collins 42.5%, Dooley 29.0%, Carter 24.4%

Democrats have taken a commanding lead in the generic ballot, and now have their largest lead since Trump became president.

Did you know that Barack Obama is running for Governor of California? Except he isn't a former President. He's a "politician, musician, and promoter of politics" with 318 followers on Instagram.

Democrats have a real chance to win in Iowa, despite the state's Republicans lean. No state has suffered more from tariffs, and I think it's telling that both the incumbent Governor and Senator decided not to run for re-election.

The President of the United States is threatening to wipe out Iran's civilization - a clear signal of genocidal intent. This would be evil, and it would destroy America's reputation for generations.

President Trump's approval rating hit a new low today in the RacetotheWH Average. Approve: 38.8% Disapprove: 57.9% Net: +19.1% Disapprove

Here's my current project for the Maine Senate Primary, based on the election forecast I built that simulates the race 3,000 times. Projected Vote: Graham Platner: 55.0% Janet Mills: 37.9% Rest of the Field: 4.7%

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

Here's my final prediction for the Texas Democratic Primary. Projected Vote: James Talarico 52.3% Jasmine Crockett 46.6% Chance to Win: James Talarico 62.4% Jasmine Crocket 30.6% Runoff: 7.1% Chance

James Talarico is having quite a moment in Texas after the Colbert interview - and according to Google Trends, Texans are now searching his name at a very high rate just in time for early voting.

For the first time this term, President Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40% in the RacetotheWH polling average.

Watch Alaska in 2026 - the state is zooming towards Democrats at a break neck speed. Relative to the popular vote, Alaska shifted from an R+29% state in 2008 to R+12% in 2024. No state in the nation has shifted faster towards Democrats in the last 16 years.

Interesting; in this simulation by @loganr2wh.bsky.social, redistricting gains Dems 2.1 seats (7.4 with the old map to 9.5 with the new map), with VA05 going from a 31% to an 86% chance for Dems, and VA06 going from a 2% to a 92% chance for Dems bluevirginia.us/2026/02/wedn...

I'm joining Blue Sky late - but better late then never! I run RacetotheWH, where I predict the results of every election. Here's how the midterms look today! House - Chance to Win: Democrats: 69% (+8% since Oct) Republicans: 31% Senate: Democrats: 40% (+6% since Oct) Republicans: 60%