The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? ⚽️ I looked at zone 14 usage in the Premier League from 2021-22 to 2025-26 and found that zone 14 still plays a vital role in attack, but in much different and less dominant ways than we might think. marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...

Morning! Have a great day 😊

Birthday. Chapter 34. Never thought I would make it, but here we are. Bless you my friends.

Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models Using event data from Swedish Allsvenskan, I try to find value from parried saves and post-save sequences using Hidden Markov Models and Logistic Regression with Lasso-Ridge regularisation. marclamberts.medium.com/modelling-po...

Morning!

It's good to remind myself that my worth is absolutely not in the reaction of social media to my models; however, it can be hard to put in all these hours to share something in public and get no response.

Expected Shot Dange: Building an alternative to xG marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention. How can we add value to second balls and create meaningful insights from them? marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

My new project: Rebound Value Models. My first look (WIP) at adding value to parries and consequent rebounds after shots. Using Hidden Markov Models to generate different insights. Full article and explanation coming soon.

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈 With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch. marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

2026 innit.

Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls ⚽️📊📈 With this model and consequent metrics, we can capture the xSBR of long balls from the defensive third to enhance dominance higher up the pitch. marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...

Great to see @lambertsmarc.bsky.social and @begriffis.bsky.social on this list, as well as a piece by @shelatneel.bsky.social for @analyticsfc.bsky.social

3 hours of sleep. This should be interesting 🤔

Let’s go.

Morninggg

AFCON

Expected Shot Danger: Modelling danger probabilities from shots 📊⚽ Over the past year I've been developing a shot-based model that started as an alternative for xG, but has developed as model that ranks shot danger based on blocked and unblocked shots. marclamberts.medium.com/expected-sho...

I wrote something. 3000ish words.

Morninggg

Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive plays analytics marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Developed a new model, Expected Transition Threat (xTT): losing/winning a ball in a certain area will lead to conceding high/low threat. To analyse, we need to look at other metrics like average offensive line, possession and style of play, but this is fun.

Emergence Index: Can we use a mid-research metric to draw conclusions about talent potential? ⚽️📊 Introducing a work in progress in measuring development in football using ages + minutes to assess potential talents. marclamberts.substack.com/p/a-mid-proc...

Exciting times, finally posting a new article again. I'm in the midst of a big research on how we can use data to predict future performances and mid-process you create metrics/scores to help you along. There's merit in sharing the process, even if the results might be negative

Apparently I wasn't allowed to look at LinkedIn Lords anymore, so here's my new LinkedIn if you want to connect; www.linkedin.com/in/marc-lamb...

All's Well That Ends Well... With a Long Throw-in (from 27-09-2025) A data analysis of long throw-ins in the Top 5 European leagues + Eredivisie marclamberts.substack.com/p/alls-well-...

What tactical state happens after a dribble? marclamberts.substack.com/p/what-tacti...

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive Plays Analytics ⚽️🏈📊 I turn to the NFL analytics and adapted their Explosive Plays for football. The focus is on making plays from possession, which involve goal kicks, deep free kicks, kick-offs, and defensive throw-ins. marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

Chain Reaction Tackle Value: how impactful are won tackles in attacking progression marclamberts.substack.com/p/chain-reac...

ICYMI: Goalkeeper Value Model Creating an actionable Goalkeeper Value Model that can be used in performance analysis + set piece analysis marclamberts.substack.com/p/introducin...

Morninggg

Lessons from the NFL: Explosive Plays Analytics ⚽️🏈📊 I turn to the NFL analytics and adapted their Explosive Plays for football. The focus is on making plays from possession, which involve goal kicks, deep free kicks, kick-offs, and defensive throw-ins. marclamberts.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...

VVV-Venlo play football again. It's been ages I've been to a live game as a fan.

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊 Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation. marclamberts.substack.com/p/the-sky-is...

Been into diving into NFL analytics, and I feel like a kid again.

It’s good have a path in front of you, but in all honesty we don’t speak enough about in professional football: the doubts that can occur in the analysis/recruitment fields. Am I good enough? Should I do things differently? Why are my peers progressing and I am not?

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊 Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation. open.substack.com/pub/marclamb...

The Sky is the limit: Introducing the Aerial Spatial Impact Rating ⚽️📊 Using correlation we can see that there is little predictability between traditional aerial dominance metrics and points per game. With ASIR, we have a higher correlation. open.substack.com/pub/marclamb...

Every season I take one specific league, watch majority of the games, release all my data analysis + engineering on that league and create models/apps. Best thing I've done to get to know the league on a deeper level. This season? Portugal 1st tier.

All's Well That Ends Well... With a Long Throw-in A data analysis of long throw-ins in the Top 5 European leagues + Eredivisie marclamberts.substack.com/p/alls-well-...

Finding players with the Innovative Pass Index Introducing Innovative pass index: a metric to find players who excel at finding attacking, progressive solutions. marclamberts.substack.com/p/finding-pl...

Introducing the Goalkeeper Value Model (GVM) 🧤 Creating an actionable Goalkeeper Value Model that can be used in performance analysis + set piece analysis marclamberts.substack.com/p/introducin...

Morninggg

Which teams are leading the set piece leaderboards in woso? marclamberts.substack.com/p/which-team...

All's Well That Ends Well... With a Long Throw-in marclamberts.substack.com/p/alls-well-...

Forgot coffee in my morning routine. Pain.

Using Hidden Markov Models on dribbles to see how much a dribbles progresses attacks in the English Premier League 2025-2026. marclamberts.substack.com/p/what-tacti...

Set to watch Excalibur (1981) again.

Which teams in women's football are most effective and reliant on set pieces? In this article I discuss how important Set Piece xG is for teams, as well as their reliance on different set pieces: corners, free kicks and throw-ins. marclamberts.substack.com/p/which-team...