loading . . . Population trends, 2010-2025 by region Vintage 2025 county estimates & related
Jan Vink Cornell Program on Applied Demographics
Overview
• Vintage 2025 population estimates • Revisions
• Regional impact of international migration revisions • Revised base population – National population estimates by sex and single year of age
• Regional change • County change 2024-2025
• Totals • Components of change
• ACS State-to-State migration
Vintage 2025 revisions
Revisions in international migration (by region)
Estimates of US population by age (4/1/2020)
Estimates of US population (4/1/2020) by age groups
Age group Ages DHC MARC V2024 - Blended base V2025 - MARC-B
Youth 0 - 17 73,106,000 73,130,609 74,426,142 73,822,227 Student age 18 - 24 31,254,763 31,303,414 30,139,704 31,271,950 Prime working age 25 - 54 127,887,609 127,862,409 129,711,003 127,517,953 Older workers 55 - 64 43,408,408 43,390,610 43,082,868 43,275,892 Young-old 65 - 84 49,456,066 49,425,639 48,074,490 49,302,637 Oldest-old 85 - 100 6,336,435 6,336,709 6,081,529 6,325,454
DHC MARC Blended base
Youth 0 - 17 716,227 691,618 -603,915 Student age 18 - 24 17,187 -31,464 1,132,246 Prime working age 25 - 54 -369,656 -344,456 -2,193,050 Older workers 55 - 64 -132,516 -114,718 193,024 Young-old 65 - 84 -153,429 -123,002 1,228,147 Oldest-old 85 - 100 -10,981 -11,255 243,925
DHC MARC Blended base
Youth 0 - 17 1.0% 0.9% -0.8% Student age 18 - 24 0.1% -0.1% 3.8% Prime working age 25 - 54 -0.3% -0.3% -1.7% Older workers 55 - 64 -0.3% -0.3% 0.4% Young-old 65 - 84 -0.3% -0.2% 2.6% Oldest-old 85 - 100 -0.2% -0.2% 4.0%
V2025 base compared with other estimates
Get estimates of change within a vintage!
Controls for 2024 ACS Controls for 2025 ACS
Vintage 2025 population estimates
Population trends, 2010-2025 by region
Population change (by region)
Change between Census 2020 and 2025 Change between 2024 and 2025
Difference Difference
Census 2020 Estimate 2025 Count % Estimate 2024
Estimate 2025 Count %
New York State 20,203,696 20,002,427 -201,269 -1.0% 20,001,419 20,002,427 1,008 0.01%
Capital Region 1,106,043 1,117,438 11,395 1.0% 1,114,080 1,117,438 3,358 0.30%
Central New York 785,120 772,488 -12,632 -1.6% 774,252 772,488 -1,764 -0.23%
Finger Lakes 1,222,896 1,211,736 -11,160 -0.9% 1,210,615 1,211,736 1,121 0.09%
Long Island 2,921,696 2,945,029 23,333 0.8% 2,941,113 2,945,029 3,916 0.13%
Mid-Hudson 2,399,251 2,454,461 55,210 2.3% 2,441,176 2,454,461 13,285 0.54%
Mohawk Valley 483,371 478,638 -4,733 -1.0% 479,293 478,638 -655 -0.14%
New York City 8,805,594 8,584,629 -220,965 -2.5% 8,596,825 8,584,629 -12,196 -0.14%
North Country 421,678 409,589 -12,089 -2.9% 411,912 409,589 -2,323 -0.56%
Southern Tier 640,000 626,450 -13,550 -2.1% 628,023 626,450 -1,573 -0.25%
Western New York 1,418,047 1,401,969 -16,078 -1.1% 1,404,130 1,401,969 -2,161 -0.15%
% Population change 2024-2025
% Population change 2024-2025
Fastest growing counties
1 Montgomery 0.94%
2 Rockland 0.72%
3 Westchester 0.65%
4 Seneca 0.65%
5 Saratoga 0.63%
6 Orange 0.62%
Fastest declining counties
62 Hamilton -1.51%
61 Schuyler -1.27%
60 Jefferson -1.11%
59 Franklin -1.03%
58 Washington -0.78%
Population change (growing or declining)
Balancing equation
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Change in population
Natural increase
Migration
Natural increase/decrease Number of counties with natural increase and decrease% change due to natural increase and decrease
Domestic Migration Number of counties with Domestic migration gain/loss% change due to net domestic migration
International gains offsetting Domestic losses
Balancing equation
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Change in population
Natural increase
Migration
5 counties had natural increase and positive migration 10 counties had natural increase and negative migration (5 grew, 5 declined)
33 counties had natural decrease and positive net migration (14 grew, 19 declined) 14 counties had natural decrease and negative migration
Tally of counties by direction of components of change (‘24-’25) 14 13 11
8 5 5
Tally of counties by direction of components of change (‘24-’25) 3 2 1
ACS state-to-state migration
Domestic migration metrics
To/from Area 1 To/from Area 2
In migration 200 4,950
Out migration 300 5,050
Net migration (In – Out) -100 -100
Gross migrations (In + Out) 500 10,000 ← Measure of volume
Efficiency (Net/Gross) -20% -1% ← Measure of direction
NY Domestic migration metrics
Gross Net Efficiency Gross Net Efficiency Gross Net Efficiency New Jersey 92,801 -20,797 -22% 129,643 -53,199 -41% 101,211 -28,409 -28% Florida 78,741 -22,581 -29% 116,202 -67,314 -58% 87,117 -38,949 -45% California 56,294 6,440 11% 64,058 -1,388 -2% 60,103 -9,593 -16% Pennsylvania 52,426 -6,122 -12% 71,506 -27,898 -39% 62,387 -23,709 -38% Texas 44,557 -11,909 -27% 41,769 -8,133 -19% 33,633 -4,217 -13% Connecticut 40,255 -9,935 -25% 53,328 -28,252 -53% 41,781 -12,941 -31% Massachusetts 36,559 -835 -2% 46,097 -2,881 -6% 33,528 -6,392 -19% North Carolina 28,054 -7,902 -28% 40,120 -25,398 -63% 34,866 -16,326 -47% Virginia 26,674 -6,054 -23% 22,548 -4,284 -19% 27,285 -8,681 -32% South Carolina 24,073 -12,575 -52% 16,206 -7,024 -43% 17,178 -8,264 -48%
Total 700,172 -130,436 -19% 858,290 -283,792 -33% 712,461 -203,567 -29%
2024 ACS 2021 ACS 2018 ACS
Source: ACS state-to-state migration
Thank you
Email: [email protected] https://dol.ny.gov/system/files/documents/2026/04/population-trends-in-nys-jan-vink.pdf?utm_source=censusSDC