Everything Trump Touches Dies bsky.app/profile/gove...

II bull/bear ratio climbs to 3.9x. That's the highest since March 2024. Above 4x is nose bleed levels

Using real time shelter, headline inflation 1.9%, core 1.6%. Jeremy has been all over this for sometime.

Jerome Powell: "This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation."

NFP/employment

Ryan is right: when the first 5 days of the year are up more than 1% (like now), the probability of an up FY with a strong gain is statistically significant relative to 'anytime'

If you think the new high in the A/D line for $SPX signals the all clear, I have some bad news. 4 of the last 5 +20% corrections started when the A/D line was at a high.

XLE first new ATH since 2024 today

The SCR and all the "January Effect" indicators (where an up day/week/month predicts an up year) are all examples of the Base Rate Fallacy. $SPX has been up 76% of the last 46 years. These indicators don't matter, the odds of the year being up are statistically the same regardless (Mark Hulbert)

Not every 5% drop leads to a bear market but every bear market has been preceded by a 5% drop. Here’s how the new year starts bsky.app/profile/ukar...

A good year ends with a bad week. Nine instances in 50 years, all closed higher within 5 days. From Wayne Whaley

$SPX win streak ends at 7 months bsky.app/profile/ukar...

Narrator: This was the high of the month for RUT, COMPQ, NDX and DJIA. SPX lost 1% the rest of the month. bsky.app/profile/ukar...

2025 expected seasonality vs actual (source on chart) Jan: up (yes) Feb - March: up (fell 20%) April - July: up (yes) Aug - Oct: flat (up 10%) Nov - Dec: up (dead flat)

What to expect in 2026 (sources on charts). - Mid term years are weak: avg gain just 5% - But second term mid term years are normal: avg gain 9% - While a President’s 6th year is exceptionally strong: avg gain 21%

Of 12 $SPX sectors, 9 have made new ATHs this year, and most of those were in the past 2 months (circles)

VIX:VXV 0.76, the lowest since 2021. Last 15 years highlighted. Aside from the 2017 tax cut frenzy, $SPX had a hard time plowing higher unabated

$SPX 60’ RSI (5) > 90 again. Christmas ham getting overcooked. Similar past year highlighted. Merry Christmas everyone!

Today’s real GDP and Final Sales. Two things can be true: the economy is expanding; and growth was at similar levels and above 2% in the Q before the last 5 recessions. The 3Q data was fine but doesn’t tell you much about what’s ahead

10 instances when SPX fell hard in the 1st part of year then rallied strongly the rest of the year (like 2025) have most often led to double digit gains the following year. With all the talk about poor mid-term seasonality and whatnot, this outcome would likely surprise the most. From Wayne Whaley

True: The upcoming SCR period has had a positive bias. However, “never being down 3 years in a row” is another example of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Scroll up

BoA Bull/Bear sell signal issued (LHS). Chart of those dates (RHS). Signal vs noise makes this unhelpful. While it hit several drops >10%, it also missed many while also issuing many sell signals that didn't materialize. See notes on chart

Today's lower than expected inflation data was expected

It's the 9th trading day of December when indices are supposed to be at their low. RUT is +3.6%, DJIA is +2.1% and SPX is +1% so far. All are at new ATHs. The good part starts tomorrow?

I think Tom is very good but I wouldn't take him (or anyone) too literally. He expected 2025 1H would scream higher and 2H would be a reset: the opposite happened, with a near bear in 1H. At the year's mid-point, he then expected another 10% drop in 2H: nope.

Dow transports on track for ATH weekly close. Dow Industrials at a new ATH today. Dow Theorists rejoice

This is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out". The market does not have a "memory" that forces it to go up simply because it has gone down twice before.

Ohio State, with a roster cost more than 50% greater, losing to Indiana, who won their first outright title since 1945, is one for the ages

I agree. Like everything else, never seems like the right time to buy but in hindsight it looks easy

You could add that there has historically been a long lag between europhia and the eventual market top. Again, investors should never assume that there's a tidy symmetry between sentiment at tops and bottoms. Investors get bearish all at once (bottom) but can remain bullish during long uptrends

Initial UE claims this week 191k. It has basically never been this low. In the 50 yrs before COVID, it cracked under 200k only once. In the ~9-mo heading into a recession, claims have historically been on the rise and above 300k. So there's that

Yes, $IYT at a new ATH while heavy truck sales and freight tonnage at/near 5-year lows is exciting

Sales down 25.2% yoy and down 13.2% YTD through November. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.

$IYT transportation ETF. Knocking on the door of a new ATH for the first time in a year. You know what they say, 8th time is the charm

Mark Hulbert: "Good Bye Bull Market" in today's Market Watch. "So while there are plenty of signs of irrational exuberance in the stock market, contrarians don’t know if the top will occur in the next several weeks, in 2026 or if it already happened in October." www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...

Highest college football spending (NIL + head coach). Congrats to Ohio State for outspending Michigan by 50% to win yesterday’s game. The best that can be said is Ohio got its moneys worth (unlike Texas). From Gemini

$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade

50-d low and then >70% A/D issues within 4 days. N=13 in the past 55 years of which 3 happened this year. From NXGenNews

$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.

So far, banks' 2026 YE targets are a median of 7600, about 11% higher than today's level. If you're a strategist, this target makes sense: since 1980, the market is up on the year nearly 80% of the time by an average of 11%. Table from Gemini

UE claims 216k this week. Comment below from a year ago still applies

Gemini 3: provide a chart of the cost of a turkey (per lbs) and the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for the past 11 years

September real retail sales +1.2% yoy, ex-gas +1.3% yoy. Retail sales are at the level you'd expect them to be if the Covid shock had never occurred

Buy today's close, 17 of 18 closed higher by end of week. Folks like Thanksgiving

Strong gains YTD but a down November has historically been followed by gains in December. Why? Momentum doesn't reverse on a dime. bsky.app/profile/carl...

Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.

Good lists, although it’s missing a favorite @dow.bsky.social

See how long it takes for my copy cat to repost these charts as his own on X

This is from Oct 22 when SPY was still rising (it gained another 3% to its most recent ATH). With today's reversal, it's now had its first >5% drop, so, big picture, this pattern is in play

SPY sitting almost on its 20-wma (see arrows). First touch in a long time (like now) usually holds. This post from early March before a further 15% slide