This might be the first week in the past 4-months (since mid-June) that SPX/SPY doesn't make at least one new ATH

The vaunted copper:gold ratio at the lowest level in more than 40 years, lower even than during the Covid collapse. Meanwhile, 10-yr yields near the highest in 17 years.

Assume it's either to enrich his family or distract you from the pedophile investigation and you'll be right 95% of the time

Shutdown in 4 charts: SPX can get whacked during shutdown but it normally doesn't last

SPX up 5 months in a row. Higher a year later 94% of time. Doesn't mean smooth sailing: last time was exactly a year ago and SPX was lower 7 months later and was down 5 of the following 7 months. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social

The current period is being compared to 1999. It's not anywhere near that crazy. Maybe more like 1996-97. Here's one way they are not alike. The 1999 IPO was bonkers

$NDX up 9 in a row. We're supposedly in the weakest month

The Turd Reich

So far, Year 3 is up +16% and higher the last 5 months in a row.

They were max long in July 2024 and $SPX closed the year 10% higher with interim risk/reward 2:1 positive.

UE claims up at 263k this week. It's been up here a few times in the past 5 yrs and then turned lower, so what happens next seems to be make or break (LHS). Prior expansions, OTOH, never even got as low as this level, which makes it seem irrelevant (RHS)

An 88% win rate is significant

June NFP was -13k, the first negative jobs number since Dec. 2020

The lowest annual return over ANY 30 year period going back to 1926 was 7.8%.

Current industrial policy is to harm domestic manufacturers

It won’t even work

When I lived in Jakarta in the '90s, President Suharto's wife, Tien, was called Madame 10%. So it's nice to see that's where we're at

Everyone is focused on Fed independence, the National Guard in DC, taking 10% of Intel, and not on evidence of pedophilia. That was the whole point.

Today's chaos in context: remember when it was all about Greenland, and then Panama.

Tom Lee $SPX. Beginning of 2025 (LHS) - first half of year better, target 7000. It gained 5%. Now (RHS) - second half better, gain of 11% to 6800-7000. 10% drop in the autumn

Analog charts from that one time 25-30 yrs ago are the worst n=1 analysis around. It's been 1937, 1987, 2008, etc a hundred times since FinTwit started bsky.app/profile/mich...

Junk bonds say things are looking up. Doesn't preclude interim volatility. From @sentimentrader.bsky.social

$SPX has had one drop so far in 2025 - -20% between Feb and early April - and not so much as a 5% blip since then. That's probably in the cards before too long

Three good takes

VIX:VXV <80 today for the first time since Dec 2024. See notes on chart.

20-d peaked in May; $SPX went 8% higher over the next 2-1/2 months. Divergences are like that. Sometimes they matter, many times they don't and other times the index just goes higher and any interim drop ends higher than when the divergence started.In hindsight you'll know when this matters

NFP

Read.

Today's revisions put NFP in May at 19k and June at 14k. This is why that is bad news

July ATH + up 3-mo in a row + 3-mo gain at least 10%. Last 75 yrs, n=15. 100% closed higher (month end) within the next 3 months, and the gains have been solid. This is the reputably weak Aug-Oct period. Within the next 12-months: risk/reward more than 5:1 positive From Steve Deppe @SJD10304

Core durable goods order shot up during Covid and have since been treading sideways. Retail sales have done the same. This has happened every cycle btw

One month ago, unemployment claims were at a two year high! Now, they're down a 6th week in a row! Here's the big picture

$DJIA - highest close since December

Cramer coined FANG in 2013. Over time it morphed into FAANG, FAANMG, FAANMGT, MAG 7, etc depending on which stocks had already outperformed. Since 2013, $SPX up over 350%. A few stocks always drive the index. Concentration is enduring attribute of the market

Remember when the copper:gold ratio was touted as a leading indicator for rates? Not so much

A lot of excitement as initial unemployment claims falls over the past month. Here's the last 4 years. Spot the trend

YTD (LHS): US trailing ROW bigly, 18% to 7%. Small caps barely positive. Last 12M (RHS): US trailing ROW, 13% to 12%. It's close. Small caps barely positive.

$SPX golden cross in effect. Next one month is a coin toss but returns >6 mo strongly positive.

Real retail sales +0.9% yoy; ex-gas, +1.7% yoy. This growth rate is consistent with the past (LHS). Big picture, real retail sales popped during the pandemic and has been reverting to trend ever since. May was nothing unusual (RHS)

$SPX: in addition to regaining both the 20-wma and the 10-mma, $NYSI will close around 430, about a day or two away from +500 (chart below)

It used to be considered impossible to make the swim to shore but now 2,000 athletes annually compete in the Escape From Alcatraz triathlon.

All-World Ex-US index at a new ATH today while SPY still 7% below. US underperforming by 1500 bp YTD. Good job guys

Today, $SPX up 9 days while under its 200-d. The last time this happened, Raiders of the Lost Ark was in theaters, Madonna was an unknown and the 10-year was 15%

When $SPX falls >20% and then recovers half of that (like now), the bottom has been in 15/16 times in last 70 yrs. The only failure was most recent instance when $SPX subsequently fell another 20% and was lower 1, 3 and 6 months later. All higher a year later, so there's that. From Ryan Detrick

Amazing. Today was only the second time in the last 36 years that $SPX rose 7 days in a row while under its 200-d

ZBT - $SPX went nowhere in 1984 and wasn't done falling in 2004 and 2015-16, but the longer term trend was certainly up every time. You know who could make this the exception to the historical record. That's the world we live in now

Not sure what Tom Lee likes about this 1. N=2 distinct periods (2008 and 2020) in the past 35 years. 2. Oct 2008; SPX fell another 36% over next 5 months and didn't breakeven for a year. 3. March 2020: SPX fell another 19% over next month

Unemployment claims near a 50+ year low. Back then, the labor force was half the size of today's. Watch this for the impact of current “policies” @calculatedrisk.bsky.social