Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast. Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now. Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%. HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%. The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.

This labor market downturn is dragging real wage growth to a crawl, with the most financially vulnerable workers—those in low-wage jobs and with limited education—barely managing gains of around 1%. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...

Low-wage workers briefly broke four decades of wage stagnation - then saw those gains erased. On Labor Day, it’s worth asking: why does the business cycle always punish those at the bottom most? My new piece in Barron’s digs in. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...

The labor market isn’t as strong as we thought and it’s getting worst. Read why on @barrons.com Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand. www.barrons.com/articles/une...

Missed the live discussion on worker power and the labor market? Don't worry. Here's the recording of today's Power Half-Hour. It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space. www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...

What if the 2021–24 labor market didn’t reflect growing worker power—but rather workers scrambling to recover lost purchasing power amid inflation and nominal wage rigidity? High job openings may have been a symptom of real wage erosion, not a tight labor market. www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Two biggest stories below the topline figures showing that the labor market is getting worse: 1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021. 2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.

The 0.2% decline in real GDI is an early warning sign of economic softening, especially when paired with slowing GDP and high interest rates. Points to underlying weakness not yet captured by spending data. www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...

Friends, this is my last month leading the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute. Grateful to have worked alongside brilliant fellows and colleagues for the past 4 years. Optimistic about opportunities to come. Onward. ✊ #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower

Inflation policy requires effective housing policy. Shelter driving more than half of the inflation increase, up 4% OTY. Shelter inflation increased for the first time since last August. Tariffs and high interest rates are not helping. www.barrons.com/articles/wil...

Good topline jobs figures but here are some red flags: -Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed -9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming -Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years

Surge in imports leads to decline, -0.3%, in real GDP in 2025Q1. For context, the US economy grew at a quarterly average of 2.5% last year. www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...

Must read on why we need economic democracy, an economy controlled by the many and not by the few, and how we get there. Perspectives from over 20 great progressive thinkers.

Extremely excited to have, the one and only, Paul Krugman join the Roosevelt Institute.

Unpacking CPI figures show a mixed picture on inflation: -Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long. -Food inflation still high, and being felt. -Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists. -Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn? Stay tuned!

Uplifting the huge impact that the Raise the Wage Act of 2025 will directly have on 22+million workers! We have the power to improve the wellbeing of American workers without the gimmicks and pain of broad tariffs.

The odds of recession increasingly drastic after US added 228k jobs last month encapsulates current US economic policy. The administration is doing everything it can to crash the economy but even bad economic policy has a lag. Also underscores strength of the economy the Trump admin inherited.

Overall good jobs report today: -Professional + business services stopped ongoing losses -Leisure +hospitality had a big rebound -Red flag is the rise in long-term unemployed -Tick up in the unemployment rate is largely due to new entrants (teenagers) -4k fewer federal workers due to DOGE

Here's a look at employment for those agencies impacted by last night's executive order gutting federal unions. Note: some sub agencies or departments were excluded from the EO.

Last night, the president issued an executive action where about 800k federal employees will lose rights to form unions, engage in collective bargaining, or file grievances over workplace conditions and disciplinary actions under the law. 1/2 www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

One reason for stubbornly high inflation, spending by the top 10%. My take on why we need progressive taxation to bring down inflation. www.barrons.com/articles/ric...

Great news inflation ticked downward but reasons to be concerned. Market uncertainty from tariffs may drive inflation up next month and housing (shelter) is still the main driver of inflation. Hard to see these concerns addressed in the short term and high interest rates aren't helping Americans.

Housing (shelter) continues to be the main driver of inflation and high interest rates aren't helping. Hard to see a path to the 2% target without action. Here's my take: www.barrons.com/articles/wil...

Great new for the NLRB and American workers but the judicial fights will continue.

Jobs report shows first wave of federal layoffs. Should expect another 20k loss next month but the big 75k buyouts (deferred resignations) might not show up for several months.

Investing in adult education is crucial, especially in wraparound services (childcare, transportation, etc) and earn-while-you-learn programs. Without support, too many American workers will remain locked out of the training opportunities they deserve.

Housing drove nearly 30% of all inflation! My take on why high interest rates pinch consumers without relief in the main cost of living burden, housing. Policymakers have the tools but lack a housing strategy. My thoughts: www.barrons.com/articles/wil...

The primary driver of inflation today is housing! Shelter costs have kept core inflation above 3%, YoY, and will remain above 3% for the entirety of 2025Q1. Clear evidence policymakers must move beyond Fed tools and implement structural reforms that directly address housing costs.

Health care and gov't employment - and a surprisingly resilient retail sector - continue to drive job growth. Overall job growth continues to slow down remarkably, clear evidence the Fed must cut rates. #EconSky #NumbersDay

That 50-cent charge reflects two components, 1) rising costs of producing/sourcing eggs and 2) rising corporate markups. Markup-driven inflation is real and harms all consumers, even if you don't eat eggs.

New from me and @lbilik.bsky.social on why this is a critical moment for unity in the labor movement. #WorkerPower

Once more for the folks in the back, we are living through the strongest labor market in a lifetime. The incoming administration is once again inheriting a strong economy. #JobsDay #NumbersDay

They had me at new housing supply.

Happy Festivus to all who celebrate. One of my many grievances: referring to statutory rape as "having sex with a 17-year-old girl."

Progressives going into 2025 be like …

New leadership but the fight for shared prosperity continues. Exciting times to be a Roosevelter.

Now, more than ever, we need a champion for workers in Congress and it’s unclear who it is. Discuss. #WorkerPower

Sustained tight labor market of the past 3 years has led economists and journos to recalibrate their perspectives on full employment. But some job-finding difficulties ≠ excessive labor slack. IMHO, a labor market is cooling when we average below +150k monthly job gains and a 5%+ unemp rate.

We're living through the longest stretch of full employment in generations. This jobs report reveals what we all know, the labor market remains strong. The new administration is inheriting one of the greatest policy successes in history.

The National Association of Workforce Boards is right! The bipartisan bill to reauthorize WIOA means fewer resources for communities and will hurt workers. Policymakers should kill the draft and leave WIOA as is. Read my take on reauthorization: rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

The 45 million Americans with disabilities, and all workers, deserve a living wage. Ending sub-minimum wage practices is good social and economic policy.

This is what fighting for our collective interests looks like. #WorkerPower #MakeAmazonPay

Look for my upcoming pieces showing how the IRA 1) offers lessons on reimagining the state as a vehicle for communities to achieve economic development, justice and inclusion and 2) exemplifies gov’t effectively serving the public interest (climate change, jobs, national security, etc.) Interested?

The college premium is falling and the labor market is showing it. My 2 cents via @marketplaceapm.bsky.social www.marketplace.org/2024/11/20/f...

Me gustaría comenzar un starter pack de personas disponibles para proporcionar análisis de política económica de EE. UU. a medios en español. Tal vez alguien ya comenzó uno.

In awe of the community of econ and labor people I've connected with on this platform. Soon I'll be writing about grounding a New Progressivism on inclusive outcomes (quality of life, not merely increasing output or labor force participation) and process (democratic governance, not market driven).

I'm not a social media power user but c'mon

Hi econ and labor policy communities, I'm director of the worker power + economic security program @rooseveltinstitute.bsky.social and professor of practice in the dept of econ + finance at the University of New Orleans. Working on pro-democracy, working people and inclusion economic policies. 1/2