Amid ongoing chatter in London about some Labour figures wanting to go further in EU relations, what does Brussels think of the UK... I've drawn a typical consensus view based on many conversations including with the few there who really care... encompass-europe.com/comment/ever...

An important part of arresting the consolidation of authoritarianism is convincing corporations and institutions that Trump will eventually be out of power and at that point they’ll face consequences for their actions and by that standard this is a good sign

He really does.

Private equity is weighing the UK Budget’s reach for stability against its strategic emptiness. In this week’s episode of Dealcast for Mergermarket, I sit down with BCLP’s Perry Yam to discuss how sponsors should align now the fiscal dust is settling. on.iongroup.com/m/mergermark...

She is so profoundly intellectually incurious that I find myself fascinated how she ever learnt how to *speak*.

The obvious way forward on the triple lock is to announce that it will end when it reaches a specified proportion of median earnings and then index it to earnings thereafter.

The "don't have an extra kid if you can't afford it" brigade get awfully upset when you suggest they don't stay in their £2m house if they can't afford it, don't they?

Great to see @politicshome.bsky.social exc lead a key segment of @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social with Culture Secretary answering qs on a note sent by Bridget Phillipson to Labour MPs over "misleading" OBR claims about SEND @sophiealichurch.bsky.social + picked up by @theguardian.com @thetimes.com today

The British people are going to get net migration below 100,000. But they’re not going to like it. Meanwhile, the cruelty continues. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

It's part of the electionification of everything, which is why we as a country are failing to have a proper conversation about our actual problems. It's bad for the left *and* the right.

70% of the additional spending from removing the two-child limit will go to families who are in work. This is targeting support for low-income working households who are being priced out of a decent standard of living despite doing everything asked of them.

Today's 70% fall in net migration to 205,000 was not one of the six stories in BBC ten o'clock news. Ta massive assymetry in whether rises in immigration and falls in immigration are considered newsworthy by broadcasters Down by 140k isn't thought to be. Up by 140k undoubtedly would be.

If the UK military still wants to sustain an influential role then it has to focus on integration with EU partners in a centre of gravity around European territorial and naval defence and abandon wider aspirations that UK society as a whole no longer shares

Btw I don't think it is good that UK voters and governments from both ex-main parties seem to care less and less about the effective practice of the military way rather than pantomime militarism. But many need to stop kidding themselves about the state of UK defence politics

Much will be said about this, but I can't help but think that the biggest losers will be seasonal agricultural workers. The six-month threshold is meaningless since their visa forces them to leave the country before it kicks in. It will remain completely legal to sack them unfairly at any time.

Why we can't have nice things in Britain: Hairdresser teams up with wine importer to offer tastings while you have a trim, applies for alcohol license. Council objects because its a "high impact area" (bustling affluent shopping district and tourist attraction). www.theargus.co.uk/news/2565512...

This continues to be nuts! Essentially putting up taxes on *anyone* putting in the suggested amount into their private pension via salary sacrifice in a convoluted way that will lead to lots of grumbling.

Whatever else this government do (and there's plenty of issues with this budget) ministers will always be able to point to this as an incredible important contribution to the country's future. Almost half a million kids taken out of poverty.

Ending the two-child benefit cap is an unalloyed good and reasoned exasperation about other Budget measures should not erase that fact. Its impact on child poverty has been appalling; the rape clause an indelible stain. Good riddance.

As expected, and as the IMF recommended, Reeves says the OBR will now only assess the public finances against the fiscal rules once a year, at the Budget - to avoid the kind of mad scramble ahead of the Spring statement that led to the botched welfare reforms.

Did Reeves just can the spring statement?

Yeah. The correct 'reform' of the OBR is it should be Parliament's creature first and foremost. It's good for HMT to have its own forecasts and for the Chancellor's ideology to be a partial driver to them!

Utterly surreal that a key part of the pre Budget narrative from the government hasn’t been ‘Russian planes keep buzzing the Essex coast, US support for NATO is looking shaky, and thanks to the Tories our army fits in Old Trafford - that’s why we need to raise taxes’.

Very good post indeed, with links to other great reading.

New post just out: "MAGA Meltdown?" With Trump's approval ratings collapsing the Republicans are starting to realise they're in serious trouble. Here's why it's going to get worse for them. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...

Just a jaw-dropping paragraph in Trevor Phillips's column for The Times. This is a policy that, by his own account, has left parents of a particular race too frightened to walk their children to school. And that's the example he chooses of the "vigour" we "need". www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

A very welcome ruling in Northern Ireland - supporting that basic right of freedom of/from religion. The state - and state schools - should not teach a religion as truth or push it on children. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2...

Martin Wolf on our essay. "So, what do I hope for from Wednesday’s Budget? Some sight of a workable and coherent long-term economic strategy. I do not expect it. It may already be too late. But, without that, it is hard to be optimistic about the UK’s future." www.ft.com/content/17e1...

Quite rightly her asylum policies have nuked any leadership prospects she had. Please, Morgan, run her at the next contest. I want to see if you can beat your score with Liz Kendall.

BREAKING: The former leader of Reform in Wales, Nathan Gill, has been sentenced to ten and half years in prison for taking bribes to pump out Russian propaganda. Gill was paid thousands to make pro-Russia speeches and TV interviews.

VERY funny that Labour are being pointlessly cruel and haemorrhaging support from their base and yet none of what they're offering is ever going to be enough for the people whose approval they're seeking, WHO could have predicted it

Shifting indefinite leave to remain to 10 years from five years has no merit. But applying it retroactively to those already resident in the UK is performative cruelty - appalling on its own terms - and economically illiterate. The UK will get - is getting! - its lower immigration. It won't like it.

How they must chuckle about his NIC cuts. LOLZ.

The UK isn’t a “soft touch” on asylum. UK asylum seeker benefits are similar to European neighbours No right to work before 12 months (it’s 6 months in France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands) UK settlement after 5 years (it’s 3 or 4 in Germany) Let’s cut out the alarmist rhetoric.

My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric: Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem www.thetimes.com/article/c797...

The i Paper is reporting that once the changes are brought in, the 20 year route will be applied to refugees who are already here. I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.

Fiscal flip-flops, market jitters & M&A fallout. Reeves’ tax u-turn swaps bold, simple policy for an unappetising Budget buffet, potentially choking UK domestic deal flow while inviting foreign takeovers. My latest column for Mergermarket: ionanalytics.com/insights/mer...

Labour’s core voter here. Absolutely baffling.

Happy 40th birthday to Bill Waterson’s ‘Calvin and Hobbes’. A work of consummate, stubborn, human, and more-than-human art.

A major problem for a government with an essentially performative policy approach is that it encourages / incentivises all other parties to so the same thing - what’s the point in being substantive if the actual government (whose competitive advantage should be governing) can’t be bothered…?

A reminder this morning of how much I wince at Politico’s arch, clever-clever Playbook stylings. A few headlines in papers that’ll never back Labour don’t make up for: 1) Mahmood torching her leadership ambitions; 2) the govt providing cover for Farage to push further right (rinse and repeat…)

The Prime Minister said in September that we are at a fork in the road. These asylum proposals suggest we have taken the wrong turning. The idea that recognised refugees need to be deported is wrong. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Not everyone is unhappy about the Government's descent into anti-refugee politics

Someone should ask Starmer and Mahmood whether they think the Kindertransport, for example, should have been a return ticket. Whether Alf Dubs, rather than becoming a Labour MP and now Lord, ought to have been sent back with his family to Czechoslovakia once it was liberated from German rule.

I came to this country as a child refugee. No English, no certainty, no idea what my life could become. Britain gave me refuge. Not on a timer, not with conditions attached, but with a chance to grow roots. A thread 🧵 1/8 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"Thank Heavens Reeves froze the thresholds," says the median voter in 2029 as they walk past the derelict sports centre and down the empty high street to cast their vote.

To explain briefly: at the moment people successful in their asylum claims get permission to stay in the UK for 5 years, then have to apply for permanent residency. At that point a review of their status is done, but it’s rare not to succeed at that point unless they‘ve committed an offence 1/

One thing I will say is that this immigration-bashing "strategy" is now indelibly Starmer's. It is Starmerism. Cooper was inertia personified but Mahmood is Starmer's key departmental promotion, brought in to do just this And given that Starmer looks doomed, what future does this strategy have?