Loved your appearance on Plain English, @paulkedrosky.com—it left me wondering: do you use Claude Code yourself?

Price Drops in Aberdeen, WA: Price drops have plummeted 61.2% over five years, now sitting 1.7 points below the national average at 21.3%. via @home-economics.bsky.social | homeeconomics.substack.com

Sale Price in Louisville, KY: Louisville's median home price hit $270K, up 2.7% annually and 30.4% over five years, outpacing the U.S. median by $28K. via @home-economics.bsky.social | homeeconomics.substack.com

Inventory in New York, NY: New York's inventory sits at 4.5x homes sold, down from 7.5x five years ago, signaling a dramatically tightened market despite modest annual recovery. via @home-economics.bsky.social | homeeconomics.substack.com

Sale Price in Louisville, KY: At $269K, Louisville sits dead in the middle of America's housing market, practically indistinguishable from the typical metro. via @home-economics.bsky.social | homeeconomics.substack.com

Price Drops in Louisville, KY: With a quarter of listings dropping prices, Louisville sits squarely in the middle of the market—slightly softer than average but nowhere near distressed. via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Pending Sales in Los Angeles, CA: LA's pending sales pipeline has collapsed 37.7% in five years, now sitting below the national ratio at 1.3x versus 1.4x nationally. via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Pending Sales in Albany, NY: Albany's pending sales pipeline has collapsed to 1.1x homes sold versus the national norm of 1.4x, signaling a weakening market momentum. via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Inventory in Louisville, KY: Louisville's inventory-to-sales ratio of 3.6x sits well below the national 4.8x median, signaling a tight market despite 18.8% year-over-year inventory growth. via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Sale Price in Louisville, KY: Louisville home prices hit $270K, outpacing the nation by $28K while gaining 30.4% over five years despite modest recent growth. via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Louisville's median home price hit $270K, up 2.7% yearly and 30.4% over five years, now 11.6% above the national median. Sale Price in Louisville, KY via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

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Louisville homes are selling $28K above the national median, having climbed nearly a third in five years despite tepid recent momentum. Sale Price in Louisville, KY via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Louisville's median home price of $270K has outpaced the nation by 11.6% while climbing 30.4% over five years, though recent momentum has nearly stalled at 2.7% annually. Sale Price in Louisville, KY via @AzizSunderji | homeeconomics.substack.com

Inventory in Miami, FL: 16.6K, down 6.3% year over year. via @AzizSunderji

Many charts show homeownership as owners ÷ household heads—this lowballs the issue for the young: many of them live with parents/friends (ie they're not household heads). This chart is better: the per capita rate (owners as % of *all* adults in each generation, not just heads).

Home prices have soared since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, but a rising tide has not lifted all boats: home prices in the suburbs and exurbs have risen far faster than in city cores. Of the 50 largest U.S. metros, New York’s 48-point urban-exurban gap is the widest in the country.

Who is leaving NYC? It really depends on where they are going: —Wealthy are moving to CT, NJ, CA —Lower income are moving to PA, SC, VA, GA —Young are moving to MD, IL, MA —Old are moving to FL, Long Island, SC

NYC is shrinking. But who is leaving, and where are they going?

Even if prices stabilize and interest rates decline, Millennials will find it harder to continue to make inroads into homeownership. That’s because a major demographic shift underlying the tight housing market—specifically, increasing competition for homes from aging Boomers—won’t recede for years.

The NAR and others report that Boomers are "baby chasing"—moving to be closer to their kids and grandkids. But the data doesn't really bear this out. Millennial and Boomer hotspots don't overlap.

Construction has quietly flipped from dragging on growth to adding to it. That’s one reason the US economy is, by some estimates, now growing at the fastest pace in over 20 years.

The current housing cycle has been extreme for 3 reasons: 1. Home price rose by 45% (!)—same as 2003-'06 2. The whole cycle (rise -> fall -> recovery) took only 3 years (the '03 cycle took 10 years) 3. No town was left behind: prices boomed in even the sleepiest of small towns

#housing is local—and the harder they rise the harder they fall... The markets that are still up y/y are those that didn't boom as much in 2021 (Miami, Philly, DC). The ones that are down the most are those that soared in 2021 (Dallas, LA, Houston, Atlanta). More here: www.home-economics.us

We're better off today than in 1984, when the US gov't started measuring personal budgets. Incomes are $16k higher (2021 $). Clothing/food are cheaper. But the avg household spends $5k/yr more on housing today than in '84. 3 min read: https://sunderji.substack.com/p/the-monstrous-share-of-housing-in

Activity in the housing market is usually like the weather—hottest in the spring/summer and coolest in the fall/winter. But the pandemic threw off these well-established patterns. In 2020 activity was pushed out to later in the year—new listings were atypically high in Sep/Oct...

From the peak in late 2020 to the trough in January this year, the monthly pace of home sales declined by 42%. By this metric, we just experienced the fastest decline in the housing market on record. (1/10)

Great chart from @bloombergnews.bsky.social

A thread mortgage lock-in and how it could be resolved... American homeowners don’t want to move and lose their cheap mortgages. This “mortgage lock-in” effect has frozen the real estate market.