Even if prices stabilize and interest rates decline, Millennials will find it harder to continue to make inroads into homeownership. That’s because a major demographic shift underlying the tight housing market—specifically, increasing competition for homes from aging Boomers—won’t recede for years.

The NAR and others report that Boomers are "baby chasing"—moving to be closer to their kids and grandkids. But the data doesn't really bear this out. Millennial and Boomer hotspots don't overlap.

Construction has quietly flipped from dragging on growth to adding to it. That’s one reason the US economy is, by some estimates, now growing at the fastest pace in over 20 years.

The current housing cycle has been extreme for 3 reasons: 1. Home price rose by 45% (!)—same as 2003-'06 2. The whole cycle (rise -> fall -> recovery) took only 3 years (the '03 cycle took 10 years) 3. No town was left behind: prices boomed in even the sleepiest of small towns

#housing is local—and the harder they rise the harder they fall... The markets that are still up y/y are those that didn't boom as much in 2021 (Miami, Philly, DC). The ones that are down the most are those that soared in 2021 (Dallas, LA, Houston, Atlanta). More here: www.home-economics.us

We're better off today than in 1984, when the US gov't started measuring personal budgets. Incomes are $16k higher (2021 $). Clothing/food are cheaper. But the avg household spends $5k/yr more on housing today than in '84. 3 min read: https://sunderji.substack.com/p/the-monstrous-share-of-housing-in

Activity in the housing market is usually like the weather—hottest in the spring/summer and coolest in the fall/winter. But the pandemic threw off these well-established patterns. In 2020 activity was pushed out to later in the year—new listings were atypically high in Sep/Oct...

From the peak in late 2020 to the trough in January this year, the monthly pace of home sales declined by 42%. By this metric, we just experienced the fastest decline in the housing market on record. (1/10)

Great chart from @bloombergnews.bsky.social

A thread mortgage lock-in and how it could be resolved... American homeowners don’t want to move and lose their cheap mortgages. This “mortgage lock-in” effect has frozen the real estate market.