I was feeling a *little* more sanguine before I saw that Sunderland were 16th in xG with the fewest shots on target in the league. They sure look better than that every time I tune in.

The only sub thing I'm really questioning is that the late-match felt prime for Hincapié: runny, energy-y, fighty, duelly, shithousey, secure.

Runny attackers = more outlets = more possession = fewer waves of opponent pressure late = a much easier job of defending. Obvious, but somebody like Martinelli or Madueke is a lovely defensive sub, in other words. We had none.

Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you. Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.

Important shifts, as I went through @gradientsports.bsky.social data: — Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26) — This is 12 more than the second-highest team — Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%) — Eze leads this league (7).

Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you. Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.

Hincapié o'clock.

Diabolical subs.

Real ones know.

Yeah, I've been working on Post-Towel expected Threat (PTxT ±). Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins). My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.

I have approximately 64 bullets that I'm considering writing about for Arsenal. What micro-topic are you interested in me exploring right now?

Celebrate all you want, but all I see is a nil-nil draw on set pieces. ☹️

Arsenal needed a quicker trigger.

Same karate kick that created the first Gyökeres goal against Atleti. Shooters shoot.

I've been experimenting with one-pagers to condense my longer scouting reports into key insights for coaches. Basically: how to set a player up for success. Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.

Still have some stubborn faith in Jesus (football player). If he loses a step, it'll impact his ability to win wide, but he has it in him to be a ghosting, combining, more typical box striker, as we saw before the injury. He is one smart motherfucker.

"The demands of the game stay the same. There's only three things that happen in a game. You've got it. They've got it. And no one's got it." - Dyche 07/01/25

My mild take is that Arsenal's fans are a touch too calma about depth. Great players are great players and they're hard to replace for a reason. Being able to cover them 90% is excellent, but still not 100%.

Both Brentford and Arsenal have gone through a lot of change, and yet: Closest shots to goal, 24/25 1. Brentford (14.9 yards) 2. Arsenal (15.1 yards) Closest shots to goal, 25/26 1. Brentford (13.8 yards) 2. Arsenal (14.8 yards)

Every time Nørgaard comes on, I remember that he’s basically as big a set piece psycho as Gabriel.

Marginal gains.

I love football. Specifically, Arsenal.

Arsenal points lost from winning positions • 24/25: 21 • 25/26: 0 (so far) Thanks for joining, Mr. Zubimendi.

Never underestimate yourself. I have as many Premier League saves as David Raya this October.

Saying this as a Piastri fan, but there are parallels to Slot, in which one got heaps of praise for being calm and faultless, except: it is easy to be calm and faultless when things are going calmly and faultlessly

In this long-read, I wanted to explore the mental and physical demands of the modern player, how Arsenal are evolving in attack (less width, more box swarming), Timber’s increasing attacking output, and much more.

Spurs’ issue looks more like a midfield problem than an attacking one. They had plenty of possession, but their double pivot completed just 28 and 38 passes. If you’re not creating advantages deeper in the build-up, you’re just running into a wall in the final third.

I say it all the time but it doesn’t feel like enough, because your eyes can adjust to the routine. But Bukayo Saka is the best player at Arsenal Football Club and has been for a good while now.

The sequencing of the Hincapié signing made it feel like a cherry-on-top, more-the-merrier thing. But his fee was higher than Hato, Calafiori, Timber, Kerkez, Aït-Nouri, etc. Calafiori will be awfully hard to regularly unseat. But they probably have big plans for Hincapié.

TLDR

In this long-read, I wanted to explore the mental and physical demands of the modern player, how Arsenal are evolving in attack (less width, more box swarming), Timber’s increasing attacking output, and much more.

Depth is more than fitness. Players iron out things quicker if it gets them time. — Tross knew he needed to close the work-rate gap, is a maniac — Cala knows he needs better defensive angles to play over MLS — Timber knows he needs to close the attacking output gap to White

10 games, 0 open-play goals allowed to humans for Arsenal. 0 saves for Raya today.

My next piece will be examining Ødegaard’s availability for Arsenal pre- and post-goatee

🤙

9 games, 1 open play goal conceded for Arsenal. And it was Haaland.

I’ve never been on TikTok but I’m aware that there are people who do exaggerated impressions of footballers. This is like somebody doing that for Gyökeres. Except it’s the real thing.

“Zubimendi will give Arsenal a calm, controlled presence in the midfield.” Zubimendi with Arsenal:

So many pros still miss a key fundamental: calling the ref by their first name. How helpful are you going to be to somebody shouting “PROJECT MANAGER!” from across the office?

Here's mine.

This is SCOUTED50 2025/26. The third edition of our curated selection of breakout talents ranked from 50 to 1 by friends, colleagues and peers. Discover the future of football, now.

Gabriel, one second before scoring

Other than the scoreline, best stat of the day: the two new starters in attack combined for 10 shots.

0 shots on target, 0.19 xG second half for Newcastle. All while Arteta was backburnering structure for periods (literally zero LB occupant in buildup). Game state, Saliba sub, all that, but: I really enjoy that Declan Rice plays for Arsenal.

Eze + Ødegaard (not to mention MLS) on the pitch at the same time is the critical mass of high-central technicians to take the team to the next step. Saka is whatever we need him to be but this’ll free him to be more goal-hungry. Actual live-ball Rice crosses help too.

A lot, a lot, A LOT to like there. All kinds of underlying connections that are almost there but not quite. But maybe the biggest: endgame urgency from 55’+ instead of 85’+. Wingers taking quick throw-ins and the like. Deserved all three points, and got them.

Call aside, I don’t like refs being called over to paused screens. Football is flow and context. You can pause a shirt tug and it’ll look like a foul, even if it’s a millisecond. You can pause a slight touch of the ball, but it doesn’t give the player carte blanche from there.