A warmer year led to lower top-10 times in both fields, but yesterday was still an exciting #wser

this year was brutal -- looks like the fewest total loops completed (and average loops per runner) since 1995 #bm100

final tracker (more or less -- still don't know who was the tenth runner to complete the first loop) -- congrats on a fun time in Frozen Head, John Kelly! #bm100

Need to zoom in on the #bm100 fun run zone i.e. till 4am. The main issue will be the wind but temps and clouds should hold off for a bit.

weather forecasts from www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Frozen... "Light rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Wed night. Freeze-thaw conditions (max 13°C on Wed night, min -4°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (severe gales from the SSW on Wed night, light winds from the NW by Fri morning)." #bm100

random #bm100 maths; for Tomo to go onto loop 3, he'd need a loop 3 time of 11:27:10; his prior loop 3 finishes were 15:13:08, 13:08:46, and 12:34:22, so this would be a bit of a stretch. However, he has a leisurely 15:27:10 to complete a fun run -- totally do-able. 1/2

more or less, how things look now #bm100

A fun run is a strong possibility for Tomo; he's roughly in the same spot as he was in 2019 which resulted in a fun run as well #bm100

It's hard to update the tracker when we don't know which six runners are still out there, but the best update I can do it this: The #bm100 has been on-going for 23+ hours now. Since 1998, only 26% of runners who took over 23 hours to finish loop 2 even made it to a fun run :/

Note, per @taka-does-stuff.bsky.social John Kelly came in right after Tomo, and not in the first wave like I assumed. That being the case, his historical performance looks like this; the Barkley is out for blood this year #bm100

the real march madness #bm100

twelve hours in, lots of carnage already #bm100

simplifying a bit (assuming no one will get past the fun run, but I can always expand as needed), but I'm not sure it's yet really "readable" #bm100

fixing the daytime/nighttime shading #bm100 - go Tomo go

I know these initial charts are pointless, but if nothing else, helps me work on the formatting (I'm still new to creating charts for Bluesky) #bm100

Assuming John Kelly was the 9:44:55 (or 9:44:57), this is how this year compares to previous attempts -- looking grim #bm100

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calculated some quick stats on #bm100 runner finishing likelihoods based on their completion of each loop, while waiting for loop 1 to finish johnsug.substack.com/p/barkley-pr...

update; no, in fact, I cannot do math #bm100 loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:57 am / 00:57 loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 2:17 pm / 14:17 loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:37 pm / 23:37 fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:37 am / 03:37 loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 am / 11:37 loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:37 pm / 23:37

#bm100 starts at 11:17 am ET, so (if I did my math right) loop 1 cutoff = Mar 19 12:37 am / 00:37 loop 2 cutoff = Mar 19 1:57 pm / 13:57 loop 3 cutoff = Mar 19 11:17 pm / 23:17 fun run cutoff = Mar 20 3:17 am / 03:17 loop 4 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 am / 11:17 loop 5 cutoff = Mar 20 11:17 pm / 23:17

better aspect ratios #bm100

Found this guide for anyone else creating content for Bluesky

The wind on Wednesday at Frozen Head looks bad. #bm100