An estimated $8.2 trillion in projected U.S. data center investment and the aggregate exposure across finance, accounting, and insurance is beginning to concern market participants — raising fundamental questions about where risk ultimately resides. www.riskmarketnews.com/ai-data-cent...

On Risky Science Live, an ILS portfolio manager publicly hand-raised for a hurricane ILW prediction market contract: "I know who'll be on one of the sides when you put up an ILW-based contract." — Vijay Manghnani, CIO, King Ridge Capital Clip below. Full hour on the Risky Science podcast feed.

2020: 10 landfalling U.S. hurricanes. Insured losses below average. Why? None hit a major populated area. "What are the three most important things? Location, location, location." — Karen Clark Basin activity has almost no predictive value for insured losses in a single year. youtu.be/bAEMeQfcmuI

2pm EDT today. How markets and models are looking at the same risk: 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane. Register to join the discussion with risk finance and science professionals. www.riskmarketnews.com/how-markets-...

David Einhorn opened a $125M PG&E position in late 2025. Bank of America trimmed utility shares the same quarter and bought wildfire-exposed insurers instead. Both bets can't be right. How AB 1054 + AI datacenter demand split institutional capital. www.riskmarketnews.com/how-californ...

This morning's RMN Morning Brief top: Greg Abel is concentrating hard, physical, climate-correlated risk on the asset side just as the premium income meant to compensate for that risk thins. #insurance #reinsurance #wildfire www.riskmarketnews.com/the-first-po...

NOAA called 2026 hurricne season to below normal. The reinsurance, cat bond, and prediction markets are pricing something else. Ten days from now, we work through why. Thursday, June 11 · 2:00 PM EDT · Free. → Register: www.riskmarketnews.com/how-markets-...

1992 had six named storms — well below average. It also had Hurricane Andrew. Why a "below normal" 2026 outlook doesn't mean below-normal pricing: www.riskmarketnews.com/before-hurri...

Imperial College London models the current Ebola outbreak in DRC at 400-800 cases, possibly above 1,000. WHO has declared a PHEIC. A U.S. citizen has tested positive. The World Bank's pandemic cat bond was shut down in 2020. No successor exists. www.riskmarketnews.com/ebola-new-ou...

California's utility wildfire fund was built on math that's all proven wrong — every assumption. Now Sacramento is designing a replacement that looks a lot like reinsurance. www.riskmarketnews.com/californias-...

New Census research flips the flood risk narrative: it's the wealthiest Americans — not the most vulnerable — who now carry the greatest floodplain exposure. 19% of the top 1% of earners live in flood zones. Add second homes and that's 1 in 4. www.riskmarketnews.com/the-wealthie...

What are markets and models saying about the 2026 hurricane season. Join the Risky Sceince Live event. www.riskmarketnews.com/how-markets-...

Ten days into the hurricane new season, three professionals who price and model hurricane risk for a living sit down for an hour and discuss how are existing risk markets are adapting to uncertainty. www.riskmarketnews.com/how-markets-...

Berkshire's PacifiCorp won an Oregon appellate reversal on its landmark wildfire class action — but $2.9B in cumulative loss accruals and 1,760 pending plaintiff claims tell a different story. The liability isn't closed. It's restructured. www.riskmarketnews.com/berkshire-no...

NOAA's entire research budget — $649M — goes to zero under the FY2027 proposal. The labs that feed hurricane and severe weather science into commercial cat models are on the chopping block. This is the second year Congress has pushed back. www.riskmarketnews.com/noaa-researc...

The RAA and Verisk are pushing back on the NAIC's draft homeowners insurance "playbook" — the RAA says reinsurance isn't driving premiums up, and backs it with 8 years of data. Verisk flags regulatory transparency gaps in proprietary wildfire cat models. www.riskmarketnews.com/reinsurance-...

PG&E's $73B capital plan has a contingency clause — and it runs through Sacramento. CFO Carolyn Burke on the Q1 call: "Post SB 254, everything is on the table." www.riskmarketnews.com/pge-draws-ha...

Private credit stress + physical climate risk = two quiet demand drivers in financial risk analytics right now. MSCI's Q1 results flag both. www.riskmarketnews.com/private-cred... #Reinsurance #ILS #ClimateRisk #PrivateCredit

Parametric insurance is an if-then statement. If this event happens, you get paid. At CTC 2026, three P&C executives made the case it's the industry's best tool for closing a $9 trillion protection gap. www.riskmarketnews.com/a-9-trillion...

Wildfire mitigation works. Cat models can't price it. Why? Every mitigation scenario requires rerunning the model from scratch. Most wildfire models run on 50-year-old fire behavior equations. Better data doesn't fix a legacy architecture problem. www.riskmarketnews.com/wildfire-mit...

What happens when AI climate models start outrunning the observational record and you can't tell if you're looking at real signal or a sophisticated hallucination? That's one thread in a wide conversation with Sarah Kapnick (J.P. Morgan / former NOAA Chief Scientist) pod.link/1825669405

CSU's 2026 hurricane forecast debuted AI assistance today and the new tool helped override the program's own statistical model, which was calling for a near-average season. 🌀www.riskmarketnews.com/closely-watc...

California just put a $3.5B/year price tag on wildfire risk transfer. A new state study models cat bonds + reinsurance covering the 1-in-10 to 1-in-100 layer for a restructured Wildfire Fund. Full story: www.riskmarketnews.com/california-p...

NOAA confirmed it ranks 4th globally in weather prediction at a House oversight hearing last week. The session covered the fallout from the roughly 500-600 employees who left through DOGE-era separations and early retirements in 2025. www.riskmarketnews.com/us-standing-...

The catastrophe risk industry is underprepared for the next decade. Not because of the models. Because of the data. Dr. Hui Su, on the Risky Science Member Podcast www.riskmarketnews.com/the-risk-mar...

Data centers have rational financial incentives to delay the AI kill switch during a rogue incident — operators will wait until $17M/day in revenue hits zero before pulling it, unless liability forces their hand earlier. www.riskmarketnews.com/data-centers...

The Trump Admin is considering replacing FEMA's loss-based disaster aid with a parametric model, with payouts tied to wind speed or water depth, not actual damage. A new report flags the core tension: fast money vs. basis risk and trigger design. www.riskmarketnews.com/basis-risk-t...

Swiss Re's new sigma report: secondary perils drove a record 92% of 2025 cat losses. They're also where cat models are weakest and data is thinnest. The fastest-growing slice of the loss pie is the hardest to model. www.riskmarketnews.com/catastrophe-...

Colorado Insurance Commissioner Michael Conway on cat models: "These models are supposed to be the greatest things since sliced bread. So the model should be able to figure out what the discount should be. But that conversation usually stops after I say that." www.riskmarketnews.com/us-insurers-...

Researchers argue for an AI "epidemic foundation model": one pretrained system across all pathogens, fine-tuned fast when a new threat emerges. The pandemic bond market's parametric trigger failures showed exactly what's at stake when models can't generalize. www.riskmarketnews.com/ais-next-fro...

OpenAI is hiring a Threat Modeler to "own" its catastrophic risk framework — $325K to identify, model, and forecast frontier AI risks across bio, cyber, CBRN, and autonomous replication threats. www.riskmarketnews.com/openai-is-hi...

$1 rise in modeled expected loss → $5 in higher premiums. New research from Ben Collier and other researchers traces 20 years of Florida cat model outputs to insurer rate filings. The results surprised the researchers. Latest Risky Science Podcast 🎧 pod.link/1825669405/e...

Cat model disclosure, actuarial justification requirements, ZIP-code loss data, and policyholder risk score appeals — Georgia's SB 585 is one of the more detailed state transparency bills yet. www.riskmarketnews.com/georgia-join...

Texas's coastal insurer set its hurricane funding ceiling at $4.3B last week. Its own modeling consultant said if a storm hits that threshold, the average loss will be $9.5B. www.riskmarketnews.com/twia-makes-a...

A new MSCI Institute report finds insurers are shifting from historically calibrated models to “layered intelligence”: geospatial analytics, localized hazard data, and shorter-horizon (to 2030) scenarios. www.riskmarketnews.com/catastrophe-...

Berkshire's new CEO Greg Abel on wildfire risk: PacifiCorp will own what it owes — but it's "not an insurer of last resort." www.riskmarketnews.com/berkshires-a...

Anthropic rewrote its AI safety framework and the core message is blunt: no single developer can unilaterally prevent catastrophic AI risk. Full breakdown at Risk Market News ⬇️ www.riskmarketnews.com/anthropic-sa...

The industry where AI should be most valuable is one of the slowest to adopt it. Professor Daniel Schwarcz of the University of Minnesota Law School breaks down what's keeping the insurance industry cautious. 🎧 pod.link/1825669405 #Insurance #ArtificialIntelligence #Insurtech #RiskyScience

The American Academy of Actuaries warns that dismantling NCAR would degrade the catastrophe models insurers depend on to price climate risk—driving up premiums and threatening coverage availability nationwide. "Uncertainty carries a positive cost." www.riskmarketnews.com/trumps-clima...

On Risky Science, Daniel Reti (Exona Lab) argues AI risk looks less like cyber and more like structured tail exposure — closer to product liability with nonlinear downside. pod.link/1825669405

One advantage of prediction markets over parametric insurance: efficiency. With insurance, you’re paying for the risk and the insurer’s overhead. We talk about what this could mean for hedging hurricane risk on the latest Risky Science Podcast. 🎧 pod.link/1825669405/e...

Former White House cyber official proposes catastrophe bonds for critical infrastructure operators—treating "data spills like oil spills"—as hearing reveals Chinese components dominate 93% of transportation sensors at U.S. airports and toll systems. www.riskmarketnews.com/former-white...

Sunday Risk Signals is live. This week: Storms vs. rail + supply chain Prediction markets meet insurance Copper flood fallout Cat volatility + reinsurance attachment math www.riskmarketnews.com/risk-market-...

Colorado lawmakers are pushing back on a $300K Colorado DOI plan to model how the mountain pine beetle outbreak could change wildfire risk scores and hit homeowners insurance affordability. www.riskmarketnews.com/colorado-deb... #insurance #wildfire #catmodeling #reinsurance #risk

Aon flags a quake modeling “blind spot”: long-distance seismic waves that cause moderate but sustained shaking and can still drive meaningful insured loss far from the fault. www.riskmarketnews.com/aon-calls-ou...

NOAA’s weather satellite data pipeline is being framed as “warfighting” infrastructure in Congress, officials warned disruptions could immediately degrade military ops. It is also the observation layer behind cat models insurance pricing confidence. www.riskmarketnews.com/future-of-us...

A stranded Venezuelan oil cargo became a test case for modern war-risk insurance—forcing courts to weigh regime legitimacy, political violence, and who pays when sovereign order breaks down. Here’s why CITGO v. Ascot matters for insurers and markets 👇 www.riskmarketnews.com/how-venezuel...

California has begun enforcing its landmark AI safety law. Under SB 53, developers of frontier AI models must disclose how they manage “catastrophic risks,” from mass harm to loss of human control. www.riskmarketnews.com/california-l...

New regulatory research finds that model disagreement -- not just higher losses—raises homeowners premiums. In Florida, more dispersion across hurricane models = higher prices, even after controls. Less uncertainty could cut premiums $50–$90/year. www.riskmarketnews.com/research-arg...