Really excited to share that my new article, co written with @DebreMaria.bsky.social, “Developing best practices “against terrorists who protest:” Regionam organisations as learning clubs for autocracies” is out with @CSP_journal.

Was great to speak today to @BBCNews & hey the promotion came as a surprise!!

Great to be at #ICCEES2025!

So looking forward to networking & presenting. One presentation on the end of the Russian authoritarian gravity centre. The second on cognitive biases as a cause of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Already met my good friend Rasa Karmauskaite. So excited!

Holy shit Ukraine's SBU security service now says it has attacked the Kerch bridge in occupied Crimea in a months-long operation. It says SBU agents "mined the supports" of the bridge with 1,100kg of TNT under the water line and detonated it this morning.

Great to see my article in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social. For too long 🇪🇺 has feared 🇷🇺 instability. Rather, it should fear the stability of the Kremlin. 🇷🇺 under Putin has shown itself to be a revisionist power that requires the West as an enemy & 🇺🇦 as a conquest.

Having seen Starmer, Macron Tusk meet with Zelensky agree on a 30 day ceasefire and then call Trump to confirm it. Putin holds an early morning presser & completely ignores the 30 day ceasefire & proclaims new talks on solving “fundamentals of the conflict.”

Looking forward to present ‘Russia Reality Check: How to Destabilise the Kremlin.’ To discuss the report’s call for a bold, proactive strategy to counter 🇷🇺 influence and challenge the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare, I’ll be joined by @khodorkovsky_en, Ksenia Maximova, from @rusdemsoc & @WillForster.

My new piece in the @thehill @TheHillOpinion on how it would be a terrible idea to reward 🇷🇺 with changing Western security architecture & giving 🇷🇺 a seat @ the table. This would be Putin’s dream & would show that the West is weak & that taking territory & engaging in war crimes

Honoured to have contributed to this piece by @OrosovaEliska @iROZHLAScz. NATO would still be the best option for 🇺🇦, but now Trump has taken it off the table (for now) 🇪🇺 needs to do more. Rearmament & continued support for 🇺🇦 is crucial.

Pleased to say that my new piece for @ConversationUK is out analysing how Lukashenka held onto power after exiling & jailing his opponents. Like many other things 🇺🇦 coming out of the war well will have an affect on 🇧🇾, hopefully for the better: theconversation.com/belarus-elec...

Honoured to have written a piece in the first issue of the Belarusian Analytical Digest! @CSS_ETHZurich. I look at how the regime has developed since the 2020 protests and how the regime ensured the 2025 elections were a foregone conclusion. Link 👇 css.ethz.ch/content/dam/...

Really happy to have again been asked by @TechF24 @FRANCE24 to speak. Even better to be included in the same article with the brilliant & eloquent @jeff_hawn. Article is in 🇫🇷 www.france24.com/fr/europe/20...

Spoke with @RachelSJohnson @LBC about @Jeremy_Hunt’s statement about sending 🇪🇺troops to🇺🇦 on a demilitarised zone. Great idea but unlikely to be accepted by 🇷🇺. We discussed whether Trump can solve the war in 24 hours. Spoiler: he won’t unless he gives 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺.

Two days after 🇷🇺 fires @ an 🇦🇿 plane causing it to crash & killing many onboard the 🇷🇺 air defence forces post a video shooting down 🎅 for New Year saying “we don’t need anything foreign in our skies.” @RT_com is the state media company behind this sick joke!

Spoke to @gordonsmart @bbc5live about 🇷🇺 & 🇸🇾. Assad has disappeared & he may appear in 🇷🇺 but it is unlikely 🇷🇺 will try to form a rump Assad 🇸🇾 on the Mediterranean. Having spent an estimated $2.5 million daily over 9 years 🇷🇺 to support Assad & had to save him twice

My new piece with my excellent colleague David Galbreath @PoLIS_Bath for @ConversationUK on Sergei Karaganov’s statements about how pushing NATO back to its 1997 borders is domestic signalling that 🇷🇺 is tough & to the west a trial ballon on talks theconversation.com/tough-talk-o...

Finally! But only Kursk? www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/u...

Following on: 🇷🇺 may arm the Houthis. Likely 🇮🇷 has money trouble & needs support, but so is 🇷🇺. Then onto Kaliningrad. 🇱🇹 is right to be worried but I don’t think 🇷🇺 will attack 🇱🇹 & all of NATO soon. Rather for now @ least Kaliningrad distracts 🇱🇹 &🇵🇱 from supporting 🇺🇦. These are all my musings.

Today was a media day on the 🇷🇺 opposition uniting. Short answer is no & I’m far more pessimistic then previously. I spoke about Putin meeting Pezeshkian & what it means. Maybe 🇷🇺 will support H & H, call for a 🇵🇸 state, but probably won’t fearing 🇮🇱 will support 🇺🇦.