The Expected Points Report for Week 8 • Rashee Rice’s elite usage in return • Emeka Egbuka: Regression candidate? • Joe Flacco: A QB1 in xFP with the Bengals? A full breakdown of my Expected Points model heading into Week 8: ball.rs/3JmFgSR

Week 8 Matchup Thread 🧵 WR - RB - TE - QB Matchups are ranked based on implied team totals, Fantasy Points allowed, EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed & Success Rate allowed by position 1 = Most Favorable Matchup 32 = Least Favorable Matchup Week 8 Wide Receiver Matchups:

Seeing Quentin Johnston’s role decline after such a positive start to the season is really disappointing. Was really rooting for the breakout year!

The Week 8 Dynasty Report • Rookie Usage Leaders 📊 • The Cam Skattebo breakout 🚀 • Drake Maye’s Dynasty Value 📈 • Prospect Watch List: Penn State RB - Nick Singleton 🔗 : ball.rs/3JnfA8E

The Expected Points Report for Week 7 • Kimani Vidal: An RB1 in Expected Points? • Bounce Back for Quinshon Judkins? • Jayden Daniels’ elite volume & matchup A full breakdown of my Expected Points model heading into Week 7 🔗: ball.rs/3LbGMYm

The Week 7 Dynasty Report • Rookie Usage Leaders 📊 • Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s elite season 👑 • Daniel Jones: A QB1 in Multiple Metrics • Prospect Watch List: Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love .. 2026 RB1? 🔗: ball.rs/47f5oXN

The Week 6 Leader in EPA per Pass Attempt? Drake Maye, by a decent margin

Week 6 Matchup Thread 🧵 WR - RB - TE - QB Matchups are ranked based on implied team totals, Fantasy Points allowed, EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed & Success Rate allowed by position 1 = Most Favorable Matchup 32 = Least Favorable Matchup Week 6 Wide Receiver Matchups:

The Week 6 Dynasty Report • Rookie Usage Leaders 📊 • Javonte Williams’ Resurgence 📈 • Quinshon Judkins: A Dynasty RB1? • Prospect Watch List: Florida State WR Duce Robinson ball.rs/3KIgHQw

Jets TE Mason Taylor's usage has quietly improved every week. Against Dallas in Week 5, Taylor was the: • TE3 in Target Share (27.3%) • TE6 in Air Yards Share (21.1%) • TE1 in Expected Fantasy Points (17.1) • TE9 in Half-PPR scoring (13.2)

While there have been inconsistencies with this year’s rookie class, we currently have 4 rookie RBs averaging +12.0 Expected Fantasy Points/Usage value Quinshon Judkins Cam Skattebo Omarion Hampton Ashton Jeanty

The Expected Points Report for Week 5 • The Woody Marks Breakout • Chris Godwin’s WR1 usage • Bryce Young: A startable option in Week 5? A full breakdown of my Expected Points model in my newest article: ball.rs/48Gdjj6

Week 5 Matchup Thread 🧵 WR - RB - TE - QB Matchups are ranked based on implied team totals, Fantasy Points allowed, EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed & Success Rate allowed by position 1 = Most Favorable Matchup 32 = Least Favorable Matchup Week 5 Wide Receiver Matchups:

The Week 5 Dynasty Report • Rookie Usage Leaders • Dynasty Stock Report • Prospect Watch List This week I discuss Omarion Hampton’s dynasty value, Jake Ferguson’s elite usage, and the breakout of Michigan RB Justice Haynes 🔗: ball.rs/4gMc6bU

CFB WR Production Leaders 2025 Weeks 1 - 5 Makai Lemon continues to rank near the top in nearly every metric. A truly elite season so far.

Week 4 Matchups WR - RB - TE - QB Matchups are ranked based on implied team totals, Fantasy Points allowed, EPA (Expected Points Added) allowed & Success Rate allowed by position 1 = Most Favorable Matchup 32 = Least Favorable Matchup

The Expected Points Report for Week 4 • James Cook’s improved RB1 usage • Tetairoa McMillan: Regression Candidate? • Jake Ferguson: A top-tier TE1 in xFP? A full breakdown of my Expected Points model in my newest article: ball.rs/4msiWVf

Because Kickers matter too for fantasy football … Kicker Efficiency Metrics Weeks 1 - 3 • Brandon Aubrey leads in FGs Over Exp • Spencer Shrader leads in volume/xFP • Chris Boswell leads in FG% Over Exp

The Week 4 Dynasty Report! • Tetairoa McMillan’s WR1 Usage 🔥 • The Quentin Johnston Breakout 🚀 • 2026 RB Prospect: Jonah Coleman’s draft stock 📈 A weekly overview of rookies, prospects, and dynasty values: ball.rs/3IDEGzF

Since 2013, only one WR has averaged a +35% Target Share in a season (min. 8 games) DeAndre Hopkins - 35.2% (2017) We currently have 3 WRs averaging a +35% Target Share this season: • Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 40.3% • Garrett Wilson - 38.9% • Puka Nacua - 37.6%

The Cam Skattebo breakout!

For those doing fantasy football content on Bluesky. I want to help by amplifying folks who are bringing the goods. I just added @john-hesterman.bsky.social to the new pack. This pack is for folks who are active with FF and NFL draft content. Please share and suggest new adds. go.bsky.app/KHvd5Jj

Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) 2025 vs 2024 Which teams are more or less pass-heavy through Week 3 TNF? • Jets with the largest decline in PROE 📉 • LAC nearly twice as pass-heavy as KC • Giants with 2nd-highest PROE increase 📈

Running Back Usage & Efficiency 2025 Season thru Week 3 TNF What stands out? • When healthy, CMC is still elite 👑 • James Cook: Top-tier usage/efficiency 🚀 • Jaylen Warren: Top 20 RB in Usage 👀 • Chase Brown is still an RB1 in Expected Points; efficiency should regress

The Expected Points Report for Week 3 • The Javonte Williams resurgence • Breaking Down the Bucs & Ravens WRs • Juwan Johnson’s elite TE1 usage • Daniel Jones … QB1? A full breakdown of my Expected Points model in my newest article: ball.rs/4nv0IDE

The Week 3 Dynasty Report This week, I discuss: • Week 2 Rookie Usage Leaders • The Rome Odunze Breakout 🚀 • Tyler Warren’s Dynasty Value 📈 • Why ASU’s Jordyn Tyson is the WR1 of the 2026 NFL Draft ball.rs/3VlRKg0

College Football Production Leaders Week 3 Below are the most productive and efficient Running Backs to start the season For context, the most successful RBs in the NFL historically exceed 2.00 Yards per Team Play at least once in their CFB careers [1/3]

The lead receiver so far in both usage and efficiency for the Packers? Tucker Kraft 🚀 Romeo Doubs leads the Packers wide receivers in usage, but with only an 18.4% target share

-Dwight McGlothern (Jeff Okudah out) -Shaquill Griffin (Devon Witherspoon doubtful) -Xavier Howard (Jaylon Jones out) Top projected weekly matchups ⤵️

Excited for another season writing the @fantasyfootballers.bsky.social Expected Points & Opportunity Report • Expected Points by Position • Usage Leaders & Opportunity Metrics • Regression Candidates Full results of my xFP model in my Week 2 article: ball.rs/4gphMbY

We saw 3 rookies receive a +25% target share in Week 1 1. Elic Ayomanor (28%) 2. Travis Hunter (27.6%) 3. Tetairoa McMillan (26.5%) McMillan was the only rookie WR to exceed 10.0 Expected Fantasy Points (HPPR) with 12.9 xFP

Going live in 10 minutes! Wednesday Night Hangout, a couple giveaways, and a little of the reality league craziness! We talk a little bit of whatever we feel like. Join us! www.youtube.com/watch?v=1g8z...

One of my favorite articles to write: The Dynasty Report Each week you’ll find the following segments • Rookie Usage Dashboard • Dynasty Stock Report • Prospect Watch List For Week 2, I discuss Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Emeka Egbuka, Makai Lemon, & many more: 🔗: ball.rs/47yi7GR

It's still early in the year, but #USC WR Makai Lemon is in the midst of an elite breakout campaign 🔥 30.6% Rec Yards Market Share 🔥 4.4 Rec Yards/Team Pass Attempt 🔥 87.5% EPA Success Rate 🔥 1.83 EPA per Opportunity #2026NFLDraft

Harold Fannin Jr Week 1 21.4% Target Share 27.7% Air Yards Share 14.4 Expected Fantasy Points (TE2) If this usage continues, Fannin Jr will be viable TE1 option every single week

A player I’m looking forward to watching this week is Breece Hall So many unknowns with a new coaching staff, new quarterback & a potential Year 2 leap from Braelon Allen As someone who is heavily invested in dynasty, I’m curious to see his usage in this new Jets offense

Los Angeles Chargers Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) by Season 2023: +0.7% 2024: -1.5% 2025 Week 1 vs Chiefs: +15.2% 👀 Expect that to decline in the coming weeks. But if they remain mostly pass-heavy, we could see multiple fantasy-relevant receivers out of the Chargers offense

Chiefs vs Chargers Week 1 Usage Chargers WRs: • Quentin Johnston led in FPs Over Expected 🔥 • Keenan Allen led in usage value 👀 • QJ, Allen, and McConkey all finished with double-digit Expected Points Marquise Brown WR1 SZN without Worthy?Brown received an elite 42% target share & 22.4 xFP 🚀

Cowboys @ Eagles Week 1 Usage Lamb was by far the #1 option for DAL, with Ferguson a distant 2nd in Target Share at 18.2% Saquon continued his elite usage - 18.0 Expected Fantasy Points & 39.7% Opportunity Share Highly efficient game for Hurts (+6.8 FPs Over Expected) on limited volume

I was really looking forward to the potential Year 2 breakout of Xavier Worthy. Hoping for a quick recovery!

#CollegeFootball Production Leaders Week 1 The most productive Running Backs after the first week of games: [1 of 3]

Jordyn Tyson picked up right where he left off last season An elite performance in Week 1: 🔥 54.9% Rec Yards Market Share 🔥 43.6% Target Share 🔥 3.6 Rec Yards/Team Pass Attempt Tyson remains the WR1 of the #2026NFLDraft

I still can’t believe this trade actually happened! #GoPackGo 🧀

10 WRs I'm higher on than consensus based on their #ReceptionPerception charting mixed with their role and situations heading into the 2025 NFL season. Guys at all different stages of their career, levels of fantasy drafts this season, etc. receptionperception.com/10-wrs-recep...

Adding to the recent hype on Isaac TeSlaa: TeSlaa's 5.24 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt in 2022 is the highest by a drafted WR in a single college season since Demaryius Thomas in 2009 Yes, it was in a DII conference, but still impressive considering even the best WRs rarely exceed 4.00

Any Marvel and Fantasy Football fans out there interested in joining a Marvel-themed redraft league? I have one open spot in a PPR league with two flex spots, kicker, and defense It’s 10 teams per league across 2 leagues! League details below. If you’re interested, hit me up.

Closing out my off-season series by taking an early at the 2026 Tight End class: • Jack Velling • Eli Stowers • Max Klare • Justin Joly • Jack Endries • Terrance Carter Jr. Production profiles, efficiency metrics, and more 🔗 : ball.rs/3UgPLJf

One of my favorite dynasty trade targets: AJ Brown Even with Saquon as the focal point last season, Brown remained efficient while setting career-highs in target share & air yards share at age 27 His efficiency could regress in 2025, but I expect his usage to remain elite

We really got Thunderbolts, Superman, and Fantastic Four: First Steps all in a span of a few months. Three of the best comic book movies in recent years.

Finally got to see #Superman, and there’s just so much to love about this movie. Outside of the action and world building that it does so well, what I appreciated the most is the emphasis on hope, kindness, and humanity. Truly one of my favorite comic book movies to date. #DCU