It seems reasonable to expect one to two of the #RWC2027 groups to NOT finish in seeded order in the top two places. So, all of these assumptions about how it is going to play out seem rather premature, not least as there are nearly two years to go before it starts. Same goes for 2nd/3rd.

Australia - New Zealand is -5.80 with home advantage accounted for so that makes it into the top five closest matches (at this point). A 1 point gap in the world ranking points is worth approximately 2 points on the field in theory.

Highly unlikely that there will be only one SH team in the semi-finals of a SH-hosted tournament. Mind you the fact that one of the QFs will almost certainly be between two SH teams does increase that possibility.

You know, I was going to make a 52/48 cursed ratio joke here. But take out the undecideds? It's 53%/47%. You can't even make this stuff up.

Scotland COULD have beaten Argentina by 21 points. In fact it was more realistic than 'could have beaten the All Blacks by 20 points'. They didn't. They lost.

Curaçao qualified for the World Cup. Most of their players were born in The Netherlands. Unlike the Netherlands World Baseball Classic team, most of whom were from Curaçao.

English media call it the Pom Squad so I don't see a problem here.

I have been informed by @elbakan.bsky.social who was kind enough to share his tickets with me for the first three on this list that they were Category 1 tickets. Just checking with him on the cost. In any case, I could afford to go to the World Cup then. I couldn't now.

I was fortunate enough to go to the 1994 World Cup in the U.S. I was helped by early internet adopters like myself and I attended: Italy v Mexico Saudi Arabia v Belgium Spain v Switzerland Brazil v Netherlands The tickets were category 2 I think and cost $60-$75 (equivalent today is $131-$164)

Tonight there is a #ChampionsLeague match between the top two teams in the world - Arsenal and Bayern Munich. Bayern went up a place to second in the Euro Club Index yesterday because of Spain's negative results which adversely affected Real Madrid. www.euroclubindex.com

England's Grand Slam of Autumn International victims (rankings at the beginning of the AIs): England (world ranked 5) beat Australia (7) Fiji (9) New Zealand (2) Argentina (6) 2016s Grand Slam (England (2) was South Africa (4) Fiji (10) Argentina (9) Australia (3) This year's was better?

World Cup playoffs UEFA A Italy (FIFA rank 12) v Northern Ireland (69) Wales (32) v Bosnia & Herzegovina (71) B Ukraine (28) v Sweden (43) Poland (31) v Albania (63) C Türkiye (25) v Romania (47) Slovakia (45) v Kosovo (80) D Denmark (21) v North Macedonia (65) Czech Rep (44) v Ireland (59)

67% of the UEFA qualifying groups had the exact 1-2 forecast by FIFA rankings. The exceptions: B: Kosovo 2nd above Sweden C: Scotland 1st above Denmark, Denmark 2nd above Greece F: Ireland 2nd above Hungary H: Bosnia 2nd above Romania I: Norway & Italy swapped places K: Albania 2nd above Serbia

Based on this, Italy have only themselves to blame. Italy were the ONLY one of the top-10 ranked European teams before qualifying began to fail to qualify directly. They now have a 2nd chance in which the best team they can play against is Poland (ranked 31st in the new ranking, Italy now 12th)

European teams, their FIFA ranking before qualification and their fate: 2 FRA✅ 3 ESP✅ 4 ENG✅ 6 POR✅ 7 NED✅ 8 BEL✅ 9 ITA P/O 10 GER✅ 13 CRO✅ 20 SUI✅ 21 DEN P/O 22 AUT✅ 25 UKR P/O 27 SWE P/O 28 TUR P/O 29 WAL P/O 30 HUN❌ 32 SRB❌ 35 POL P/O 38 ROU P/O 39 GRE❌ 41 SVK P/O 42 CZE P/O 43 NOR✅ 45 SCO✅ 1/

If Austria and Denmark both win their groups this evening (both need a draw), the ONLY team in FIFA's current top-12 European teams that won't have qualified directly for next year's World Cup will be Italy. Gattuso can moan about qualification being too hard but it was seeded for them to get there

Quite. The fact is that Italy were top seeded in their group and are still number one ranked amongst those teams. Yes, Norway have been fast improving but still. Also, Italy are far and away the highest ranked (read: theoretically best) team in the play-offs. They have no excuse if they fail.

Had a quick look at this for Andy's time. 100% Vs Italy (7 matches) 100% Vs Argentina (2) 100% Vs Fiji (1) 100% Vs Scotland (8) 100% Vs Australia (3) 100% Vs Japan (3) 86% Vs Wales (7) 75% Vs SA (4) 63% Vs England (8) 43% Vs NZ (7) 33% Vs France (6) 82% Vs Above (56) Andy; we love you

☘️Ireland are going to end the year in the top-5 of World Rugby's rankings for the 10th successive year. Only New Zealand have also done this over the same period. 2025 - 4th (pending) 2024 - 2nd 2023 - 2nd 2022 - 1st 2021 - 4th 2020 - 5th 2019 - 5th 2018 - 2nd 2017 - 3rd 2016 - 4th 1/

Scotland's end of year World Rugby rankings 2017-2025: 2025 - 9th (pending) 2024 - 6th 2023 - 6th 2022 - 7th 2021 - 7th 2020 - 7th 2019 - 9th 2018 - 7th 2017 - 5th

Scotland's win% against selected teams under Gregor Townsend 91% v Italy (11 games) 80% v Australia (5) 67% v Fiji (6) 63% v England (8) 57% v Argentina (7) 50% v Japan (2) 44% v Wales (9) 38% v France (13) 0% v Ireland (11) 0% v New Zealand (3) 0% v South Africa (4) 40% overall vs the above teams

💷England have averaged 33.2 points per match over their last 10 matches against top opposition and conceded 17.8. England's attack hasn't been this good over 10 matches since 2019. The defence hasn't been as good as this since 2021. @englandrugby.bsky.social @samlstandsup.bsky.social

For the first time ever Arsenal are now ranked #1 on the EuroClubIndex rating system. They are also ranked #1 on both ClubELO and Opta Power Rankings. @simongleave.bsky.social clubelo.com www.euroclubindex.com theanalyst.com/articles/who...

Do you want to pre-order Attacking the Space? The book that made the best pundit in rugby say this 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 Then you can find the link here - geni.us/AttackingThe...

Dutch kids probably cycle at least 2500 km per year without really thinking about it. Most still do it on bikes without electric propulsion although this is changing. The problem with e-bikes over here is that they are much in demand for bike thieves.

Who is Brit Ian? And what does he or she (perhaps) lose?

I am so happy that my friend Sam has written a book and I can't wait to read it. I think this book has been missing from the sports data literature for years and it is brilliant that it has been finally written by someone I know. I hope it does well and that is where you can all help!

🌹England Rugby Attack: Under Jones good to very good but began to decline 2021 - 2022. Improving again now under Borthwick. BUT Defence: Problems started in 2020 and increased to the point where Jones was sacked. Now as bad as it was in the days of Robinson/Ashton/Johnson. #SixNations

The #BAFTAs Best Picture award was once considered one of the guides to the #Oscars but not so much in recent years. In the last 10 years, only Nomadland (2020) & Oppenheimer (2023) have won both. Producers Guild is 70% in the same period. Conclave therefore remains an outsider for Best Picture.

Anora has now won the top awards from the following: Critics Choice Producers Guild Directors Guild Writers Guild (Original Screenplay) Since 1995, six films out of the seven (86%) which have won all of these have won the Best Picture Oscar. The exception was Brokeback Mountain. #Oscars

What made Twitter grow was Retweeting, but interaction changed when a Like button was introduced. So hard to find good follows when people don't crop up in your timeline. People who followed you over there don't know you're here either. I'd encourage people to repost good stuff as a civic duty! #FF

Listening to the 20 winners from #5albums70s2 now. Onto the ninth of the 20 and I am pretty sure that the following will make my final 5 here: The Who - Who's Next: A masterpiece ELO - Out of the Blue: Sensationally good for a double album Wish You Were Here will too for sure. 2 more spots.

Over 127 million viewers in the U.S. for last weekend's Super Bowl. This also includes all historic viewing figures. Only England matches deep into the World Cup/Euros produce the equivalent (25 million+) of these sorts of figures in the UK I think. www.nielsen.com/news-center/...

For a double album Out of the Blue is sensationally good. I have no time for the idea of guilty pleasures and all that guff. If you like it, you like it. Also Lynne is the only one of the Travelling Wilburys not feted as a legend of the music business, which makes no sense. #5albums70s2

Only fair to point out that lots of folks were doing cool and interesting stuff before 2013. (maybe even me)

How are the Six Nations teams performing against bookmaker handicaps (sourced on the morning of the first game(s))? England +8.5 (+1,+7.5) France +7.5 (+15,-7.5) Ireland +6.5 (-1,+7.5) Italy +5 (+4,+1) Scotland -11.5 (-4,-7.5) Wales -16 (-15,-1) Thanks to @rugbykino.bsky.social for the handicaps

What a try - Daly’s movement is just so good. (Look away French fans !!). Mitchell takes a huge risk/ref & touchie don’t spot him. #ENGvFRA

I thought the Irish POTM was a toss up more so than the England game, but Hugo is bang on It’s so often either narrative or who they want to talk to

I was surprised by how artistic this was. Terrific performance.

Six Nations team of week 2 from data. Thoughts? 1 Genge (ENG) 2 Nicotera (ITA) 3 Bealham (IRE) 4 Itoje (ENG) 5 F Thomas (WAL) 6 M Fagerson (SCO) 7 Earl (ENG) 8 Faletau (WAL) 9 Gibson-Park (IRE) 10 F Smith (ENG) 11 Bielle Barry (FRA) 12 Moafana (FRA) 13 Barassi (FRA) 14 Freeman (ENG) 15 Allan (ITA)

Added notes on the award winners at this weekend's three award shows to my Awards Season list. With Anora winning all three Best Picture awards, it is now favourite to win the Best Picture Oscar after being behind The Brutalist and Emilia Perez a couple of weeks ago. letterboxd.com/simongleave/...

The fact we had a classic yesterday at Twickenham and 80% of the conversation I'm seeing from fans & media is about why the two biggest stars (Who both had good games with a few errors) are dogshit is why rugby has gone so far backwards as a sport. There's no celebration, joy, just moaning.

I know I have a lot of Irish followers so, after yesterday's magnificent England victory, I'd just like to take this opportunity to congratulate you on your 2025 Six Nations title. 😉

I haven't watched one of these for a long time. This is of the usual incredibly high standard.

Three awards shows this weekend. My awards season list on Letterboxd has every film nominated for a Best Movie category in the major international awards shows. 102 films in total. How many have you seen? I have also added notes indicating the winners. letterboxd.com/simongleave/...

Magnificent work by Carrick. I much prefer this type of deep analysis to the kneejerk nonsense on England that we get from many fans and sportswriters.

Given the 100 nominees for semi-final 1 of #5albums70s, most of the best albums made it into the top-20 in the voting but how on earth did Goodbye Yellow Brick Road miss out? That is my favourite of Elton John's I think. Is he going to have no representation in the final of this?

I have listened to all 20 of these now. Still deciding on my top-5 to move into my final but the following definitely won't be in it: Rocket to Russia - Dull Pink Flag - I admire the originality and its influence but not interesting enough for me. On the Beach - Did nothing for me #5albums70s1 1/

CMAT live at Paradiso last night. I was on the left around four rows from the front. Great gig. I'd go and see her again in a second. Just a joyous special evening. www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZ8r...

This @cmatbaby.bsky.social concert last night in Amsterdam was bloody brilliant. The crowd was incredible too. It will definitely be high on my end year list of concerts. If I see anything better than this, it will have been a very good year. Go and see her and her excellent band.