Universities: "We won't capitulate to political pressure!" *Federal funding stops* Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"

Brooklyn Mirage renovation: Planned reopening becomes bankruptcy filing. Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics

Madison Realty CEO on PC evolution in CRE lending: - Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV - Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55% - Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage Regulatory arbitrage at its finest

BDCs sorted by dividend yield 18% at the high end, 6% at the low end The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble Source: Raymond James

You weren’t the lender. You weren’t the sponsor. You were the advisor. All fees. All good.

Sponsor reading a text from the relationship lender asking if they’re still “partners.”

Secondaries managers raising $81 billion in six months, beating most full years Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom

Vista saving $200 million by abandoning private credit for BSL Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking

Spent $4k on travel to confirm management still lying

2006: 100 unicorns, minimal valuation 2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value Maximum value, minimum liquidity.

Private credit’s reach has no limits

Calpers: "We have very strong conviction in private equity" Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months* Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"

Observation: 96% of large European companies are private Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity" Source: Apollo

*JPMORGAN NEARS DEAL TO TAKE OVER APPLE'S CREDIT CARD: WSJ Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy: Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare Phase 2: ??? Phase 3: Call JPMorgan $JPM $GS

PE bankruptcy statistics: All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned $1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned Math: Go big or go home, preferably both

Private credit showing divergent performance by borrower size: - Smaller companies: defaults increasing - Larger companies: defaults declining sharply - Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance Source: Proskauer

3 investments for every exit is the kind of ratio that makes LPs start asking uncomfortable questions about liquidity... Source: PitchBook

Core middle market: 85% recoveries Upper middle market: 72% recoveries I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...

Me at 2pm after ordering extra everything at Chipotle

Sponsor and lender after spending 12 minutes touring the warehouse before approving 8x leverage

Current state of the lev loan market: Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par The great compression continues

Great, more PE/PC in the dentistry space. Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!

Private Credit: soon coming to a farm near you!

HY PM debating to overweight BBs at record-tight spreads or reach for yield in dog-shit CCCs:

Want to know how hot the HY market is? $24B+ in junk bond supply this month Busiest July since 2021 The issuance machine is back $HYG $JNK

Glendon seeing distressed opportunities because PE can't exit during bull market Sometimes the best of times highlight the worst problems

Anthelion using large language models to identify "attractive middle market loans" 100% believable. CLO credit analysis nearly 100% automatable.

Private equity in dentistry: 161 deals in 2024, more than any other healthcare sector This is why these PE-backed dentists are always pushing for new procedures...

Middle-tier PE firms struggling to “differentiate themselves”… Being in the middle means being invisible

Brightline missing ridership projections by 53% while planning Tampa expansion Peak transportation optimism: Double down on the failed model

Direct lender hearing the sponsor he "supported through the tough times" is refi'ing him out with a cheaper BSL

Kohl's is a real estate company pretending to be a retailer but bondholders trading at 56¢ already know this Billions in unencumbered assets mean someone will get paid when the story breaks. The only question: who collects, and how much? $KSS

Apollo promising “increased secondary market liquidity” for illiquid private credit The most optimistic interpretation of blockchain ever

EM borrowers: “Dollar down 8%, time to issue euros” Currency markets: “What happens when the dollar bounces?” EM borrowers: “We’ll diversify back to dollars”

Objectivity is inversely correlated with AUM

Explaining to Congress why a 9x unitranche is ‘responsible lending.’ @SenWarren

The new hottest exit opp just dropped: not exiting at all. The best exit is sometimes staying in the same building.

Finastra swapping $5.3B private credit for syndicated debt. Amazing what happens when borrowers discover price competition still works.

Apollo: “The AI bubble is bigger than the IT bubble. Here’s a chart proving it” Market: “So... sell?” Apollo: “We didn’t say that”

Just offloaded some PIK-toggle unis to a grandma in Ohio… She’s very excited about the “guaranteed income stream”

2015: “Let’s merge Kraft and Heinz for synergies” 2025: “Let’s split Kraft and Heinz for focus” The merger-to-spinoff cycle remains undefeated $KHC

They're calling PC in retirement accounts "exciting" now... Wait until retirees learn what "PIK toggle" means during the next credit cycle

Direct lender realizing their 9x-levered illiquid pref is now sitting in a janitor’s 401k.

CalPERS buying Yale secondaries at 90 cents and immediately finding $100M in hidden value (Circle) Ocassionally, pension funds are the smart money Source: Semafor

BlackRock: "Private assets will enhance retirement returns" Retiree: "By how much?" BlackRock: "Up to 50 basis points" Retiree: "And the fee increase?" BlackRock: "Let's focus on the opportunity"

Love how private credit's CRE strategy is "we'll lend what banks won't at ratios banks won't use"

Retail should be able to access junk bonds directly... away with this 144A nonsense! Make #shitco debt accessible to all!

Tech companies: "We're building AI to help humanity" Pentagon: "Here's $200M each" Tech companies: "We meant help American humanity specifically"

Special sits funds now buying performing debt instead of distressed The actual special situation is now avoiding special situations entirely…

Dimon warns about private credit risk while JPMorgan underwrites 9x leverage deals. Do as I say, not as I lend.