It's far too soon to know the full effects of the Administration's war on immigration. But one thing is already clear: It isn't creating jobs www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

Forget about meaningless year-on-year inflation. What's important is what is happening now. August CPI inflation was 4.5 percent compounded annual rate -- and rising fast.

This California bill promotes more housing near transit hubs. Lists arguments for and against. Looks to me that the listed arguments against are things that make me like it better. www.slowboring.com/p/breaking-d...

Those of us in the academic world write about "state capacity." Sometimes that term is just too wonky for those who live on planet Earth. Here is a case study that says exactly what "state capacity" means in that real world. (Hat-tip to @pahlkadot.bsky.social ) www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...

"President says he’ll decide later “whose fault it is” that Moscow and Kyiv have not moved closer to end the war." (If he hasn't figured that out yet, things don't look good.) wapo.st/3JvvRrN

By some reports, Russia is "winning" the war in Ukraine. However, the cost to its economy is enormous. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

@pkrugman.bsky.social quotes Arendt: "Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty." paulkrugman.substack.com/p/hackificat...

Utilities often keep coal plants online even when they are not the cheapest source of power. Trump rules are making this problem worse. We could have a win-win (cut electricity prices AND cut emissions) if we could thwart this coal-friendly practice. www.volts.wtf/p/trumps-lat...

What to expect in Alaska? “The ideal scenario for Putin would be to divorce the issue of relations with America from the issue of Ukraine, hoping that other political and economic matters would make Ukraine of little relevance to Trump.” www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Looks much like Bukele's playbook. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

I, for one, am all for cutting government waste. Why, then, is the government becoming a major perpetrator of waste? www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/...

You can't fight the culture wars and make government more efficient at the same time. The see-saw battle over paper vs. plastic straws is a case in point, says @gabemenchaca.bsky.social of @niskanencenter.bsky.social www.eatingpolicy.com/p/grasping-a...

Can someone explain why this is different from a cybercriminal who steals your data and then promises to give it back in return for a payment? www.washingtonpost.com/education/20...

@meduza.io reports a bizarre trend among Russian elites toward beards, long hair for men, and traditional "patriotic" dress meduza.io/en/feature/2...

1/2 @pkrugman.bsky.social explains here why Trump's Japan trade deal, if fully implemented, will increase rather than decrease the US trade deficit. The key is the simple equation US Trade Deficit = Net Foreign Investment to US. ... open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

1/2 To follow the rise of inflation, watch the annualized monthly rate, not the %change from a year ago.

The only slim hope that Trump's Big Bad Bill will NOT trigger a major fiscal crisis is for GDP growth to increase. Already not very realistic, that hope is further dashed by a new study from the Atlanta Fed showing that mass deportation will send growth down, not up. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

Trump's tariff policy is bad enough on economic grounds alone, but this is something else altogether. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

"It's the housing, stupid!" Well, this new report from @niskanencenter.bsky.social does not go so far as to call anyone "stupid," but it does show that the high cost of housing is the leading reason for California's sky-high SPM poverty rate. www.niskanencenter.org/housing-poli...

1/2 Economists who study our healthcare system are frustrated by one thing above all: Not only are prices high, they are unknowable. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Greg Ip, @wsj.com: "If governments could borrow as much as they wished and set interest rates by fiat, why don’t more do it? Because there is no free lunch. If interest rates are persistently too low, something bad will happen, usually inflation." www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

BLS reports the unemployment rate decreased but the labor force fell by 130k and the employment population ratio was unchanged. On balance, a mixed picture on strength of job market. www.bls.gov/news.release...

@gabemenchaca.bsky.social of @niskanencenter.bsky.social argues that the admin's attempts to improve performance and accountability in the civil service are simply "cloaking partisan control over the civil service in the language of “efficiency,” and “fitness." www.niskanencenter.org/you-cant-fir...

Do work requirements for Medicaid work? No, says Robert Gordon, who has hands-on experience running such a program. donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-medica...

1/3 Should we fight population decline with immigration and other tools? wapo.st/44dEoGA

Who is going to bring in the harvest? And MAGA's effects on rural America don't stop there. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/maga-will-...

1/2 The Jones Act, the original legislation that gave preference to American Ships, was bad. The new one is worse. This is the new one ... www.freightwaves.com/news/lawmake...

Russia's economy in serious trouble, officials say meduza.io/en/feature/2...

@paulkrugman discusses the bad job market for recent college grads open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

1/2 What is the key value of libertarianism? Destruction of the state, or enhancement of liberty itself? @mattzwolinski.bsky.social does a good job of parsing this issue, which is newly important as MAGA captures the remnants of libertarianism. . . . www.theunpopulist.net/p/to-fight-a...

Just the facts, ma'am: New CBO estimates show that Trump's tax bill would take $1,559 from the average family in the lowest income decile and give $12,044 to the average family in the top income decile. www.cbo.gov/system/files...

In this piece for @niskanencenter.bsky.social, Gabe Menchaca criticizes the Trump administration's proposals for civil service reforms and offers some suggestions of his own that would more reliably improve state capacity. www.niskanencenter.org/you-cant-fir...

1/2 Everyone who studies social policy knows about "benefit cliffs" that penalize certain people for earning more. But In the UK, apparently, they have cliffs that dwarf ours. on.ft.com/4kPLGaN

Want to read a story that is even scarier than American politics? on.ft.com/3ZjL3gT

I probably should do more to let people here know about free posts on Substack. So here's today's: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-...

1/2 NYT's @bcappelbaum.bsky.social is critical of the charitable deduction. He wants it replaced with a system that incentivizes less wealthy donors, too. ... www.nytimes.com/2025/05/07/o...

According to @dsquareddigest.bsky.social , infrastructure projects are hard not because of NIMBYs, but more because of the structure of the system we have for making sure NIMBYs can't stop those projects. A paradox, no? hypertext.niskanencenter.org/p/the-nimbys...

@mcmegan.bsky.social says "When the AI disruption comes, you should have a fully stocked go bag that you can pick up and move to some safer spot." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Trump's rule-breaking is going far beyond what even the most pessimistic imagined. These data shows that rule-breaking populist rulers do not make their countries great -- far from it! tiny.cc/pya7001

Is falling fertility a "bigger threat to humanity than climate change", as Elon Musk thinks, or "an achievement misdescribed as a problem." as others think? In this essay, I come down closer to the latter than the former. www.milkenreview.org/articles/the...

Reported US GDP fell by -0.3 percent in Q1, setting off recession fears, but some pointed to healthy 3% growth of "core GDP" as a sign that all is well. This post explains why I am not fully reassured by the growth of "core GDP." talkmarkets.com/content/how-...

From the "That's reassuring" dept: The Trump administration has removed a memorial honoring victims of gun violence from the main atrium of the BAFTE. ... spokesman Chad Gilmartin said that the decision to remove the portraits was not political. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

1/4 @jasonfurman.bsky.social Hi Jason -- some Q's about your FT piece yesterday and analysis of GDP data today. You like final sales to private domestic purchasers, which you call "core GDP," and say it avoids the distortions caused by uptick in Q1 imports. But ...

Worried about empty shelves at Walmart? You should be. Empty harbors = empty shelves.

1/2 Just 19 US households own 1.8% of the nation's wealth. Top 0.1% owns 13.1% of the wealth. Top 1% owns 31%. Bottom 50 % owns 3%. All of these are records -- inequality is increasing more rapidly than ever before. www.wsj.com/economy/1-tr...

"The story of [the demise of] Direct File is a demonstration of both the best of what is possible in government, as well as the the impulses toward mindless administrative vandalism that has defined the Trump regime," says @donmoyn.bsky.social Sad. open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...

The Trump administration is often said to be following the roadmap of Heritage's "Project 2025." But that roadmap clearly calls for the Fed to single-mindedly pursue price stability and ignore unemployment. That would suggest keeping interest rates high. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

@edwardluce.bsky.social : "The official position of the world’s oldest constitutional republic is that the courts should have no say in who its executive deports and on what grounds. Foreign travellers to the US should beware." on.ft.com/4cygfhv

If "making stuff" is what we want, what is wrong with mining, construction, and farming? Total "making stuff" employment in US is stable, not falling! www.wsj.com/economy/us-m...

Paul Krugman makes 3 good points 1. Trump’s tariffs will hurt, not help, manufacturing 2. If you want to promote mfg, you should use industrial policy, not tariffs 3. Good jobs don’t have to be in manufacturing & manufacturing jobs aren’t necessarily good paulkrugman.substack.com/p/democrats-...