@kaigreet.bsky.social has a nice article on delivery of last QF-16. I subconsciously assumed Air Force had a bottomless supply of old fighter converted to target drones, but no--QF-4 retired 2016 and exactly 127 QF-16s were ordered, pretty recently (2012) at that! They won't last forever.

This is what sticks with me from the famously wrong End of History theory. Seemed crazy to me given my materialist 'it's the economy stupid' beliefs. Admittedly it's conservative (as Fukuyama is) fixated on passions & human nature rather than human material well-being as drivers of conflict. 1/2

This is good, even if a result of regrettable U.S. withdrawal. But why Poland and not Ukraine, which unlike Warsaw already operates Strykers? (~400 received, about 80 lost) I fear we know why. Still, these vehicles (or ones retired early from Polish service) may wind up in Ukraine anyway.

SCOOP: Sources tell me Donald Trump's name was added to the exterior of the US Institute of Peace building ahead of Thursday's peace agreement signing between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which will be held inside the building. Confirming if it's been officially renamed.

Interesting, though the question remains whether Ukraine can get enough use of Tigers to compensate for costs of integrating a new aircraft type--this war hasn't been friendly to helicopters. Concepts I can image include drone hunting with APKWS, or max-range (5 miles) Hellfire missile strikes.

Below is a great post looking at the very long track record of aerial bombing failing as a means of coercion. But also it contains this hair rising anecdote from the Yemen air campaign. 1/2

For the third time in 25 years an attempt to build a major new U.S. Navy surface combat ship has failed with the cancelation of the Constellation-class frigate. You can read in depth about its serious development problems in my article last year. 1/2 www.popularmechanics.com/military/nav...

Shocking this is still a problem after the huge scandal sickened soldiers caused years earlier. The language about freezing use "out of an abundance of caution" seems an understatement! I wondered if this vehicle could evolve beyond its teething issues, but this doesn't look good.

Republican Senator Mike Rounds said Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a call to senators, confirmed the so-called 28-point “peace plan” was actually a Russian wishlist and is “not the administration’s position”. Nor is there any threat to cut off weapons or intelligence to Ukraine.

Thread recently brought up the aptness of 'kremlinology' to understand zig-zagging policies of Trump admins. I think we see more mapping of the interminable duel between neo-con-ish and isolationist wings of the administration. Different agendas when it comes to Ukraine, China, Latin America etc.

Russia once hyped the Kinzhal as an invincible superweapon. Now Ukraine is downing them by blasting it with music and making it think it's in Peru

Zelensky has announced a new deal for Ukraine to potentially acquire up to 100 Rafale fighters plus 8 SAMP-T air defense 'systems'. Abstractly exciting , but concretely the question of how to fund 100 Rafales and/or 150 Swedish Gripens overhangs all. 1/4

For Veteran's Day, a few stories of service, colorful and tragic alike. First of all, the island that blew up and the man who survived it. 1/5

Star Chamber courts for service members: "The Pentagon is now conducting a witch hunt to find trans people in the ranks. If a service member is accused of being trans, then a board will hear evidence and be tasked with deciding whether that person meets the military’s definition of trans..."

A typically egregious example of illiteracy by editor writing headlines. The text by article author doesn't say anything inaccurate to my knowledge, but editor-chosen headline says 'jets' when describing a helicopter + jet fighter; says they 'vanished' when both ditched and had crews rescued.

Kyiv says its working with Stockholm to buy 100-150 modern Gripen-E jet fighters starting 2029+. Read on for cost questions, why Kyiv is focusing on Gripens particularly & insights as to how this 4.5-generation fighter could challenge Russian airpower.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/dispersed-ch...

Good piece by @drfarls.bsky.social on dangerous misconception that a single nuke suffices to erase a metropolis and everybody in it. The point isn't to minimize horrific loss of life, but sheltering after early warning improves survival odds.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-question...

Alongside dozens of videos showing the mass execution of civilians, including women, children, and medical staff, new satellite imagery analyzed for the 2nd consecutive day by HRL_YaleSPH reveals atrocities by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces so extensive they are visible from orbit

The proposed defense budget (NDAA) goes all in on drones--but how much does it spend on which programs? Read my magazine feature with a deep dive into Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps programs of record for UAVs, USVs and UGVs--and those that *didn't* make the record. 1/4

Shield AI says it's developing an X-BAT drone fighter last week intended to take off and lands vertically using an F-16 turbofan targeting greater range, speed, stealth and autonomy than current loyal wingmen. Read on for thoughts on underlying theory/application and challenges to realizing concept.

Saw old piece of mine on AIP/diesel-electric submarines cited here arguing their cost-efficiency for littoral sea denial missions. An interesting debate, but current events point to their risks! For U.S. they're a forward-basing, alliance commitment asset-and current admin is 100% opposed to that!

Why is the Air Force's 93rd Air Ground Operations Wing buying the C100 heavy quadcopter drones being procured for Army infantry companies? Official statements are vague, but it may have to do with lasers, F-35s and a founder of the drone racing league.

Interesting Atlantic piece on current frontline reality in Ukraine: low single-digit teams of soldiers hiding in forests and houses to avoid drone attacks. The author assess that Ukraine may have achieved a newly sustainable equilibrium vs. Russian attacks. www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

America's World War II battleships saw last combat use in 1991. Trump recently suggested they make a comeback. Aesthetics aside, read on for why that makes little sense in 21st century + thoughts on what future large future warships may look like instead. nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-great-u-...

Jacobsen's "Nuclear War: A Scenario"--which quotes one of my articles!--has made a splash with the public, but not with nuclear arms experts. This lengthy thread lists problems with the chain of events described in the book, including use of 1960s lens to current tech/doctrine.

I know these guys are all dumber than a sack of hammers, but it is fascinating to see the military decide “logistics are gay” in real time

A PR person for ABC asked me to stop asking about Pete Hegseth's speech during this episode about the death of Vanessa Guillén. They emailed me today and asked I not include the interruption in the final show. I will not. So tune in to listen to a lecture from a PR person about Guillén's legacy.

France and Germany are struggling to work together on their FCAS 6th-generation fighter. Read on for why, how each has different problems going it alone, whether Germany's ideas of partnering with UK or Sweden are viable, and why I think a divorce is an 'everyone loses' outcome.

The Pentagon is reequipping infantry brigades with M1301 Infantry Squad Vehicles-Chevy pickup trucks-more expensive than Humvees yet leaving troops far more exposed. Attached to combat squads but not intended for combat, an officer shares why he fears they're bad at both. DoD testers seem to agree.

China's large Jiutian 'mothership' drone supposedly could release a hundred small, killer drones from high altitude to search and destroy individual targets. A scary concept--but read on for why it must overcome multiple major practical problems in execution.

A military parade revealed China is simultaneously developing large exquisite stealth drone fighters AND lower cost Western-style Loyal Wingmen jets. Read on for a look at key features visible on these airframes, and thoughts on possible use cases for higher-end 'exquisite' drone fighters.

The Navy said it wasn't hurrying to develop drone fighters called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). But last week revealed 5x contracts for carrier-based CCA concepts! Read on for contractors, challenges of carrier drone ops, Navy's divergent CCA concept & politics behind Navy's about face.1/2

If the Navy's F/A-XX fighter ever happens, (unreliable) concept art hints it might resemble Boeing's F-47...or Northrop-Grumman's legendary YF-23 Black Widow prototype. Read on for YF-23's qualities vs rival YF-22, its carrier-based NATF-23 variant & the Congress vs. DoD battle over F/A-XX.

An illustrative break down: if Russia launched a full-scale nuclear counterforce attack, ie. one aimed at disabling U.S. nuclear forces & their command & control actuators, what are the obvious priority targets? (Make sure to go down thread for the full list.)

Gift link to NYT piece on the newly revealed failed Navy SEAL mission in 2019 that resulted in the death of North Korean civilians.

Recently photo emerged of a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol plane fitted with an AGM-158 LRASM missile, the U.S.'s most advanced anti-ship missile. Based on 737 airliner, P-8s ordinarily focus on anti-submarine patrols. Now it can also serve as anti-ship bomber, a concept I wrote about in 2020. 1/3

A decade ago China's military mustered just a handful of stealth aircraft. Now it has hundreds, it's no longer a niche component. Read on to learn about PLA stealth fleet's quantitative & qualitive growth, why it's happening, and its tactical implications.

It looks like Chinese Coast Guard corvette 3104's bow got sheered off at the tip, short of the 76mm gun. There were several crew visible here before impact, I hope they escaped but this doesn't look great.

This is like the scene in Phantom Menace where the giant sea monster chasing the minisub abruptly gets slammed by an even bigger colossus. Here, a 320-ton Phillipines Parola-class patrol boat is being harried by a 1,500 ton corvette only for a 7,500 ton destroyer to plow straight into it.

Air-to-air missiles on these is a good look! We now need to make a 'jet fighter alignment chart' and put this beastie on the bottom right corner. Hunting Shaheds (without endangering actual jet fighters) is the lord's work, proverbially speaking.

So Russia just declared it's ending a 'moratorium' on deploying medium-range missiles in Europe per the defunct INF treaty--a treaty it was caught violating a decade ago with the 9M729 cruise missile. Then, Moscow openly trumpeted use of a non-nuclear IRBM against Ukraine in 2024. Some moratorium!

Hegseth's DoD and Navy are battling over latter's near-cancelation of service's 6th-gen F/A-XX jet--and the Senate is wading in. Read on for how this arguably reflects opposing views on the future of aircraft carriers, and how F/A-XX development could impact carrier air wings & drone integration.

What's Japan's Self Maritime Defense Force (JMSDF) doing with drones? It's finally putting some on ships! Read on to learn about procurement of MQ-35 V-BATS to operate from Next Gen Offshore Patrol Vessels, V-BAT's combat ops in Ukraine & how its 5.3 submodel improved range, endurance & safety. 1/2

Hegseth's DoD is trying to jump start integrating small drones (SUAS) into military services by new de-regulations reducing testing, training, procurement & design-standard requirements; new program offices & drone "ranges"; and re-classifying smallest drones as 'consumables' like ammunition. 1/2

Rumors are circulating that U.S. is "considering" transfer of JASSM stealth cruise missiles to equip Ukraine's F-16s. That's possible if Trump is in retaliatory mood re: Putin. But rumor's source is not very reliable (in "3 F-35s shot down by Iran" kind of way) and generally Russia-leaning. 1/3

One thing I like about Murderbot is that its main human characters are sincerely idealistic. Not in a cynical faux way with underlying agenda, they actually just believe in their ideals! On the other hand, the show also portrays them as very stupid and naive! And everyone not them is just terrible.

Glad some are calling the obvious mendacity. Blocked aid included missiles U.S. has retired/is retiring from use, 30 PAC-3 missiles of $120 million value (=1x F-35), artillery shells equal to a fraction of U.S. monthly production. U.S. likely just spent $1 billion-ish in missiles protecting Israel.

A look into the numbers of the Iran-Israel ballistic missile war: how many missiles and defensive interceptors were launched, how many reached their target, and which side could last longer.

The UN Office of High Commission for Human Rights (OHCHR) just released a report describing how in 2022 Russia deliberately murdered a barracks full of Ukrainian prisoners at Olenivka & blamed it on Western artillery. I wrote on this incident at the time & why Russia's account was incredible. 1/3

Looks like UK's Royal Air Force is re-introducing a nuclear role it had abandoned, carrying B61 nuclear gravity bombs on short-range fighters. This involves acquiring UK's first F-35A stealth jets; until now, UK has only operated F-35B jump jets useable for carrier operations.