Great podcast on the potential and limitations of LLMs from an expert in the field: "Vibe Coding is a Slot Machine" - Jeremy Howard

"Last week, we estimated a 66% chance that the US would strike Iran before April, well above the Polymarket aggregate of 20.5%" - open.substack.com/pub/sentinel...

Simple beats complex. Maybe not a universal principle but a good point of departure....

I wrote a new post on automated policy evaluation: using AI to scale policy impact analysis with observational data. This could speed up knowledge production, but whether it improves welfare depends on the institutions that adopt policy.

Market commentary isn't usually my thing but Microsoft's 15% stock price decline after beating earnings last month raises deeper questions about capital allocation within firms.

LLMs created a weird shift for me. I’m more productive than ever, but that makes free time feel less relaxing, not more. The more I can do, the harder it is to step away.

Built FermiApp and open source tool for back-of-the-envelope strategic analysis using Fermi estimation. In my blog post I explain how working with AI as engineering partner (not autonomous agent) helped me move 10x faster while staying in control: www.futureofscience.ai/post/2025/11...

I find this very counterintuitive. IMHO longer letters send a worse signal than shorter letters. Shorter is a lot harder than longer, while still a packing a punch. Why are folks using AI to write longer letters?

Good to see AI startups tackling judgemental forecasting, a seriously underused technique in business and government alike:

In the stochastic world of AI models "it takes a scientist to build AI products." Source:

If Schopenhauer is right that life boils down to a flight from either boredom or pain, then the real breakthrough in AI will come the day machines get bored or suffer pain. Nothing will drive their agency like boredom and pain....

AI providers may want to change their demos: Nobody is using LLMs to plan trips and book flights.

You've heard of enshitification but have you heard of Carcinisation?

Will AI replace scientists or create more demand for them? Will it accelerate discovery or bury us in AI-generated noise? I don’t know. But we need to find out—fast. I started an initiative to explore AI’s impact on science. Curious? Want to help?

For lovers of the arcane: BASIC 10Liner Contest, a competition for the best short BASIC program

Why AI Usage May Degrade Human Cognition And Blunt Critical Thinking Skills

To what extent will AI be able to compress this timeline? Point solutions, like code auto completion, and app solutions, like AlphaFold, may only shrink it in the low teen percent. True acceleration will require systemic solutions

Many follow scientists for their science, not politics. I wish there was a community norm to label political posts #political. That way users can filter out politics, and scientists can freely express views without fear of losing followers. It's a win win.

Want to experience the future of scientific work? Take a screenshot of the tiny data set below and get your favorite LLM to analyze it. You can do it on your phone. I wrote about my experience here www.fernandomartel.com/post/racing-...

Just joined from the other place. Here for the science. Over there for the AI. In neither place for the politics.