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Happy scenario season! We have our week 10 playoff picture up! While we only have 1 tiny scenario in our post this week, we do again have the seed probability charts as well as the seed control calculations! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/10...

Always fun to make a gigantic editing mistake in your grand entrance of the season 🤦‍♂️

Happy scenario season! We have our week 10 playoff picture up! While we only have 1 tiny scenario in our post this week, we do again have the seed probability charts as well as the seed control calculations! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/10...

It's possible this upcoming week could be the last week without some sort of scenario. My initial calculations indicate that if TEN loses to LAC & IND defeats PIT in week 9, then TEN will have a week 10 division elimination scenario, despite week 10 being their bye week.

I've never seen this before. We occasionally have a tie and non-tie team have to go to a tiebreaker at .500 during byes (DAL had that with ATL & MIN going into the week). I don't recall at any point during a week a non-.500 tiebreaker between a tie and non-tie team, but NFC 1 seed has one right now

Graham Gano's game-tying kick for CAR vs CIN in 2014 came with 2:19 left in overtime, which until tonight was the latest in an overtime period for such a kick to be completed.

Probably won't be true by the end of the week, but as of the end of MIN/PIT, we have our first non-ambiguous standings of the season (i.e., no need to handle 0-0 tiebreakers, which has no official comparison metric)

Welcome to a new season! The Week 1 standings are up on the site now! nflplayoffscenarios.com

And with 272 games in the books, it is time for me to sign off for the season! Before I do, though, I want to acknowledge everyone who has played a part in my work: @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social @kylestan.bsky.social @ivanurena.bsky.social @ray.playoffpredictors.com

We have the 2024 season summary up, including bracket and draft order. This will be the final post of the season, but will be updated throughout the playoffs, both bracket and draft order. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2024/week/18...

And your 2024 draft order for non-playoff teams

2024 Playoff Bracket

Your final NFC Playoff Picture Image Courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the DET win, DET has clinched the NFC North division title, a first-round bye and homefield advantage Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

This would be the 7th time we have had a playoff spot or seed come down to SoV since realignment in 2002. It's the first time since realignment that a division has come down to SoV. (h/t @ivanurena.bsky.social )

What to watch in game 272: 1) DET clinches the NFC North title, a bye week, and home-field advantage with a win/tie, and MIN gets the 5 seed. 2) MIN clinches the NFC North title, a bye week, and home-field advantage with a win, and DET gets the 5 seed.

With the LAR loss, LAR is locked into the 4 seed and TB is locked into the 3 seed. TB will host WAS, and LAR will host the loser of DET/MIN (or MIN if DET & MIN tie).

Your final AFC Playoff Picture Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the DEN win, CIN has been eliminated from playoff contention. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the DEN win, MIA has been eliminated from playoff contention. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the DEN win, DEN has clinched a playoff berth. They are the 7 seed and will travel to Buffalo on wildcard weekend. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

The top 5 picks in the draft are now set: 1) TEN 2) CLE 3) NYG 4) NE 5) JAX

What to watch for in the late slate: 1) DEN clinches a playoff berth and is locked into the 7 seed with a win/tie 2) MIA clinches a playoff berth and is locked into the 7 seed with a win + DEN loss 3) CIN clinches a playoff berth and is locked into the 7 seed with DEN loss + MIA loss

With the TB win, ATL has been eliminated from playoff contention. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the TB win, TB has clinched the NFC South division title. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

With the GB loss, GB is locked into the 7 seed and WAS is locked into the 6 seed. GB will go to PHI in wildcard weekend.

With the NE win, TEN has clinched the 1st overall draft pick.

With the TEN loss, CLE has been eliminated from 1st overall draft pick contention.

Welcome to the final day of the regular season! What to watch for in the early slate: 1) TB clinches the NFC South title with a win/tie or ATL loss/tie 2) TB is locked into the 4 seed with a tie OR a loss + ATL loss/tie 3) TB is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss + ATL win

Forgot to say it earlier: with the CLE loss, NYG was eliminated from 1st overall draft pick contention.

What to watch for in PIT/CIN: 1) PIT is locked into the 5 seed with a win 2) CIN is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss/tie

With the BAL win, BAL has clinched the AFC North division title. They are locked into the 3 seed and will host either PIT or LAC in wildcard weekend. Image courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social

Happy week 18! What to watch for in BAL/CLE: 1) BAL clinches the AFC North division title and is locked into the 3 seed with a win/tie 2) CLE is eliminated from 1st overall pick contention with a win 3) NYG is eliminated from 1st overall pick contention with CLE loss

The week 18 post now has scenarios for the 1st overall draft pick! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2024/week/18...

2024 Week 18 AFC and NFC Seeding Possibilities:

The week 18 post is up! Since all that SF/DET affects is who wins the 1 seed in the event of a MIN/DET tie, we don't really have to wait on that for a detailed picture. nflplayoffscenarios.com/2024/week/18...

With the WAS win, SEA has been eliminated from playoff contention. (Image Courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social)

With the WAS win, LAR has clinched the NFC West division title (Image Courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social)

With the WAS win, WAS has clinched a playoff berth. (Image Courtesy of @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social)

Only the 3-12 teams (NE, TEN, CLE, NYG). I mistakenly posted a moment ago that JAX was in contention, but they can only tie SoS if all 3-12 teams win, and would lose H2H to NE.

What to watch for in WAS/ATL: 1) WAS clinches a playoff berth with a win/tie 2) LAR clinches a playoff berth with WAS win/tie

SEA has a simple path to the playoffs now. All they need is SEA win + CHI win + ATL win + ARI win + NE win + DEN win + DET win + TB win + MIA win + LAC win + ATL win week 17 + DET win week 17

With the MIN win, PHI is locked into the 2 seed.

With the MIN win, MIN/DET next week is guaranteed to be for the NFC North title and the 1 seed. Winner gets 1 seed, Loser gets 5 seed.

With the MIN win, PHI has been knocked out of 1 seed contention.

With the MIA win, MIA cannot be eliminated from playoff contention in week 17.

What to watch for in the late slate: 1) LAR clinches the NFC West division title with MIN win + CLE win (or one wins and one ties) 2) MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss/tie 3) PHI is knocked out of 1 seed contention with MIN win

With the BUF win, BUF is locked into the AFC 2 seed.

With the IND loss, IND has been eliminated from playoff contention.