VPAP is the best way to follow early voting results and they update daily (of course not all localities do). Keep in mind that we don’t do party registration in Virginia so you are making inferences based turnout, geography, and past voting records.

1/ The biggest Trump counties in Virginia are almost universally in southwest Virginia and VA-9. They are very white and have fewer college graduates than the rest of the state. This means it’s possible to have a turnout bust there in a blue wave-type year.

In Virginia early voting starts at the registrar’s office and so who shows up on Day 1 to wait in line? Retirees, and college grads who have the enthusiasm and free time. Also note that Spanberger’s GOTV kickoff was in Henrico, which has the second highest turnout rate.

Network basically gets that anger is an incredibly motivating emotion, but you can’t channel it constantly IRL without drastic consequences. But any kind of media allows you to be angry and feel like you’re doing something without any consequences.

Soon Pam Bondi will be forced to file an indictment that's just a rambling TruthSocial post.

I told you the audience was asleep. Shoulda preempted the View lol

“Who knows how large his secret harem is” is an incredible line.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, France.

Wow Nate, if only people warned you.

Gotta see what the swing state Senators do. They caved last time.

Early voting starts in Virginia today, and though public polling has been quite sparse, the message is pretty clear - none of these races are close. Still, if you're in the Commonwealth, we've got an excellent Democratic ticket for you, and a House of Delegates majority to defend. Go vote!

Dolan should get a phone call from the Vatican for this nonsense. Comparing Charlie Kirk to the saints is something you'd expect an idiot convert to do.

So Elon's company is going about as well as we all thought, in the meantime, he isn't paying much attention to Tesla.

Okay, I kinda feel bad for the guy. People find making fun of Charlie Kirk more acceptable than Charlie Kirk.

My back of the envelope math on this was: Alabama: 73-25-2, Trump +52 Mississippi: 76-22-2, Trump +54 VoteHub has: Alabama: 82-18 , Trump +64 Mississippi: 87-13, Trump +Trump +66 Map has slightly different margins than the actual VoteHub page, idk what's happening there.

These all look correct to me except New Hampshire, because New Hampshire's electorate is at least 95% white. I also suspect Minnesota's white electorate is a little more Republican. But if you run the numbers the Deep South has the most conservative white people by far.

It's always funny when people learn Spanberger's professional background in any capacity. I remember in her first election people tried to leak her security clearance background work and anyone familiar with the process laughed (if you can get a clearance you lived a scandal-free life).

A lot of stuff has gone up $1 or $2 in price. My wife and I are upper-middle class so it's a nuisance not bank-breaking, but it's genuinely insane how much say, ground beef costs now.

The Bagram AFB thing is hilarious because unless they secure Taliban approval - and I can't imagine they would - they will get far more people killed trying to hold Bagram than trying to evacuate Kabul.

I'm not really possible to run a broadcast network if every piece of content you produce could you get your license revoked. Like I said this morning, it's easier to exit the market and that's what these companies should do.

I appreciate that Trump is dispelling the notion he gives a shit about Charlie Kirk.

Charlie was rejected from West Point, and then promptly decided he was too good for the military. He reminds me of my father-in-law, who was accepted to a military academy, but his mother hid the letter so there wasn't any way he could wind up Vietnam, and then he just never joined.

CNU has been a little favorable for Dems in the past but: Spanberger +12 Hashmi +11 Jones +7 Not much evidence these races are competitive at this point.

I watched the monologue that got him cancelled and it was just a ritual of insults. He operated the same way many conservative pundits do, and I'm sure they hated that.

A big gripe conservatives have with Jimmy Kimmel is his sense of humor closely matches theirs: crude, blunt, and bro. He doesn't pretend to be high-brow or intellectual, if you watch his monologues he shreds Trump for being old, fat, and unmanly. He made them look in the mirror.

Disney could look Sinclair in the eyes and say "we're getting out of broadcast and taking our content with us, you guys can keep the stations." Disney would be fine and Sinclair would fold.

FCC will probably auction off their band to somebody. I can assure you that very few media companies wanna start a TV channel in the year 2025.

If I were Disney, I quietly exit the broadcast space, and put all my broadcast shows on Hulu. Probably takes a couple years to do it, but the dead weight in cable is the infrastructure, not the content. Boomers will figure out to pay for Hulu.

I spend a few hours mindlessly shooting things in Borderlands to find out I have to praise Tucker Carlson AND Karl Rove in the same night????

Kimmel comes on close to midnight on the east coast lol

I do think the Trump admin will probably nuke what’s left of broadcast media minus Fox. Parts of them will survive in one form or another but your local broadcast will be infomercials, slop, and propaganda.

There has never been a better time to buy physical media you care about. Streaming services might all be slop in the next couple years.

The next 4 years could see a huge decimation of popular media and culture simply the executives are desperate to suck up to Republicans. Imagine streaming and theatrical content almost exclusively geared to conservatives over 50.

By 2028 all late-night shows will just be rebroadcasts of the Daily Wire. There will be 500k viewers nationwide because Shapiro’s biggest fans will all be asleep.

1. Why does Melania look like she's trying to avoid being ID'd in the historical record 2. You can tell the days where Trump has the time/patience to prep and when he doesn't. Bronzer is extra orange and hair is bright blond.

Almost a year since the last cut of 0.25%. This should make interest rates the lowest since 2022, at around 4%.

Hi @votehub.com, new precinct map of 2024 is incredible. Is there any way we could get a turnout change layer from 2020 to 2024 since the underlying data is there?

If I had to hedge a bet on sleeper House districts to flip, I'd look at the southern Texas gerrymandered ones and greater Miami. If conservative hispanic turnout falls off they're all in jeopardy.

RFK Jr is an extraordinarily stupid and dangerous person whose got a significant following simply by having the last name "Kennedy," which forever lives in the heads of brain-rotted Boomers.

Again, another psychic damage event for hardcore Trumpers will once again be the realization at that nobody is as corrupt as they are.

Current votes for government funding bill: 218 in the House (Massie is no, need 218) 54 in the Senate (Fetterman is a yes, need 60) Government shutdown odds probably like 50/50 at this point, need to see how committed the swing state Senators are.

The idea that the trans partner was the most ethical person is gonna give them psychic damage.

If a fair hate speech law were enforceable Matt Walsh would go bankrupt overnight.

I love that these people have just made up completely fictional versions of real people to notch into their worldview.

1/ We got Charlie Kirk polling from YouGov. First question asks about familiarity. 56% are very + somewhat familiar. Highest numbers are: - 77% Trump voters - 76% conservative - 72% Republican - 70% 100k+ - 67% male - 63% 18-29 Pretty obviously tracking his viewer base here.

I am announcing a lawsuit against all Bluesky users: not enough of you have liked, reposted, or replied to me. Your lack of engagement demonstrates actual malice against me, the greatest poster ever. I would like $15 billion dollars and a pony, and someone tell Sydney Sweeney I still love her.

1/ For those of you too young to remember/didn't pay attention to Obama's presidency, the average scandal went like this: Fox News: "the President wore a tan suit today, he hates formality, therefore he hates America and you" Obama: "uh, no it was just drycleaning day, we have those here"

The promise of Obama was let's forget about race, and guess what, a bunch of conservatives didn't actually wanna do that, that's why they said he was a secret Muslim born in Africa. You wouldn't know this from Shapiro but Obama was the last US President to leave office with positive approvals.

Gutfield doing some classic projection here.

Maximal example of the all stick no carrot admin. There’s not even an “I’m running for local office as a Republican” exemption to the RIFs.