Coaching changes do not occur at random

When forming a draft list: the more limited your prospect evaluations the more "factoring in availability to maximize EV" becomes code for "regularizing towards consensus".

Sealing off this work for now. Popular NHLe models split up estimating league strength and predicting player outcomes. I attempt to do this under one roof in a way that I think is principled… but out of my depth. Am I contributing anything new in the space? Nah.

NHL Draft model v2. Wrote a rough draft about what I think was going wrong the first go. Not there yet. drydan.github.io/posts-hockey...

First go at a Poisson SSM for men's hockey. League str, F/D age curves & individuals modelled as RW1s. 14 leagues dating back to 2013 w/ no skater cutoffs. Schaefer an interesting case this year. Would bump to 3rd in draft given a full season and 1st if last season was punched up reasonably.

PWHL released the 2025 draft eligibility list. Here's some coeffs from a pois reg for a NCAA D1 team level model. Strength of schedule a focus for points based analysis, but most top scorers play tougher games. Wisconsin the kind of super team I wish would declare all at once

Siren's shift data from yesterdays PWHL game derived by recording live game summary updates for each players time on ice every 20 seconds.

@mikemurphyhky.bsky.social do you know what's up with PWHL TOI data? I scraped last game's live summary updates to try and create a substitute shift chart but it did not turn out well for me. The final reported TOIs don't appear to add up either. Any work out there on this?