yimmy
@yimmymcbill.bsky.social
📤 34
📥 148
📝 30
trying to learn stats unfortunately through hockey.
https://drydan.github.io/
Coaching changes do not occur at random
4 days ago
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When forming a draft list: the more limited your prospect evaluations the more "factoring in availability to maximize EV" becomes code for "regularizing towards consensus".
3 months ago
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Sealing off this work for now. Popular NHLe models split up estimating league strength and predicting player outcomes. I attempt to do this under one roof in a way that I think is principled… but out of my depth. Am I contributing anything new in the space? Nah.
5 months ago
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NHL Draft model v2. Wrote a rough draft about what I think was going wrong the first go. Not there yet.
drydan.github.io/posts-hockey...
7 months ago
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First go at a Poisson SSM for men's hockey. League str, F/D age curves & individuals modelled as RW1s. 14 leagues dating back to 2013 w/ no skater cutoffs. Schaefer an interesting case this year. Would bump to 3rd in draft given a full season and 1st if last season was punched up reasonably.
7 months ago
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PWHL released the 2025 draft eligibility list. Here's some coeffs from a pois reg for a NCAA D1 team level model. Strength of schedule a focus for points based analysis, but most top scorers play tougher games. Wisconsin the kind of super team I wish would declare all at once
7 months ago
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Siren's shift data from yesterdays PWHL game derived by recording live game summary updates for each players time on ice every 20 seconds.
about 1 year ago
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@mikemurphyhky.bsky.social
do you know what's up with PWHL TOI data? I scraped last game's live summary updates to try and create a substitute shift chart but it did not turn out well for me. The final reported TOIs don't appear to add up either. Any work out there on this?
about 1 year ago
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