This week's brief takes a look at the newly declared state in South Yemen, the US arrest of Maduro last week, and the ongoing protests in Iran open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

Happy New Year everyone! 🎊🎉

This week's brief looks at the Armed Chinese container ship, US strikes on IS in Nigeria, and a plane crash that killed Libya's top General. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

Merry Christmas everyone! 🎄

A look at the failed coup attempt in Benin and the regional response, plus an update on Niger’s uranium convoy. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

A map of the current situation in the western Sahel, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are fighting jihadist and separatist insurgencies. Due to the nature of the conflict, the operational areas of the insurgent groups are shown rather than 'control'.

It’s been a frustrating few months, as other life priorities have kept me from working on anything for this account (USAID funding 😉). I won’t commit to a return date as I’ve tried that before and wasn’t able to stick to it.

Close-up satellite imagery of the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran following Israeli strikes last night. High-resolution visuals show visible damage to multiple structures across the site. soar.earth/draw/2257

Ukraine updates for the past fortnight: Russian forces advancing west of Nevske and Terny have reached and taken Katerynivka as well as positions along the Ukrainian fortification line in the area.

I didn't want my investments to go up anyway

As of the end of March 2025, Russia occupies 18.3% (+0.05%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 272.72km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: A new Ukrainian incursion has entered the settlements of Demidovka and Popovka in Belgorod oblast, directly south of the previous Ukrainian offensive into Kursk.

As of the end of February 2025, Russia occupied 18.26% (+0.05%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 251km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: In Kursk, Russian forces have successfully pushed Ukrainian units out. Continued pressure on the flanks of the incursion ultimately forced the withdrawal. While some Ukrainian elements may still be present in the forests to the south, the incursion can largely be considered over.

With Russia rejecting a ceasefire, it will soon be clear whether Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine was an aim for peace or favouring Russia. Russia's refusal suggests they don’t see resumed U.S. support as likely, as their only motive to accept a ceasefire would be to prevent it.

Ukraine updates: In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.

Ukraine updates: Ukraine have carried out a counterattack in Kursk securing the precarious position that had been developing south of Sudzha. Meanwhile, Russia has taken positions inside Sverdlikovo, northwest of Sudzha.

But first, I want to thank today's sponsor TahrirVPN.

As of the end of January 2025, Russia occupied 18.21% (+0.07%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 427.47km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: In Kharkiv, Russia has significantly expanded its positions on the western bank of the Oskil River. They have taken positions both north and south of the previous area of control in Dvorichna.

Ukraine map updates: Russian forces have taken control of Vremivka and thus the final road out of Velyka Novosilka. The settlement is now effectively cut off and Russia has begun assaulting from the west. Some Ukrainian forces remain in the town.

Ukraine war updates: Russia has continued retaking lost areas of Kursk. Pogrebki is again contested. Further east, Russia has retaken control of Russskoye Porechnoye.

I have put together a brief background on the historical leadership of Mali as an introduction to a planned series of articles on the current situation in Mali. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

In 2024, Russian forces expanded their control in Ukraine by approximately 3,200 km², increasing the total occupied area to 18.14% of the country. This represents an additional 0.54% of Ukraine’s total territory coming under Russian control during the year.

As of the end of December 2024, Russia occupied 18.14% (+0.07%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 408km² over the month.

Uncovered some old research of mine. Willing to offer expertise for the upcoming movie.

Happy New Year!

Merry Christmas everyone!

Ukraine map updates: In Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces have crossed the Oskil River north of Kup’yans’k and entered the settlement of Dvorichna.

🇷🇺Med Sea Flotilla🇷🇺 3m📷 from the port of Tartus on 9 December 2024 Appears that all 🇷🇺navy vessels have departed from the military piers Doesn't 100% mean that they've evacuated but it's starting to look that way... Time to watch Tobruk maybe?

Welcome back Principality of Antioch

Syria Overview: - The Syrian Regime has fallen as Damascus and the SAF surrendered to rebel factions after HTS advanced from the north and civilians and rebel groups rose up in the south. - The last remaining SAF 'control' along the Mediterranean coast remains to be formally taken over.

Ukraine war updates: Russia has made significant gains east of Velyka Novosilka, capturing Blahodatne and Rozdol’ne and advancing towards Ukraine’s primary fortifications further west.

Russia has achieved net territorial gains inside Ukraine every month since November 2023. Since June 2024, these gains have grown consistently larger each month, reflecting a steady acceleration in the pace of their advance.

As of the end of November, Russia occupies 18.07% (+0.12%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 702.15km².

Breakdown will be out tomorrow. I mean it this time 😁

As of the end of November, Russia occupies 18.07% (+0.12%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 702.15km².

Preliminary Syria update: Syrian rebels have launched a rapid offensive in the northwest of the country, capturing Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city. Rebel forces have also advanced southward, reaching the outskirts of Hamah.

#Syria: first visual confirmation of rebel forces in control of the town of Khan al-Asal. This means rebels are now AT THE GATES of #Aleppo city.

20k mark already! 😮 Thank you!

This week's update is a little delayed; I've been out with the flu for a few days, but posts should be out tomorrow 🤞.

#Sudan 🇸🇩: in what is the biggest government victory to date, #SAF troops have recaptured the city of #Singa in #Sennar state. Singa is the first regional capital to be retaken from the #RSF.

How early is too early?

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Ukraine weekly updates: Russia has continued to diminish Ukrainian control within the Kursk region, crossing the Snagost’ River into Dar’ino and repelling last week’s Ukrainian attempt to hold the line at Novoivanovka. Additionally, Russian forces are clearing grey zones in the northwest.

Ukraine weekly updates: Russia has continued to diminish Ukrainian control within the Kursk region, crossing the Snagost’ River into Dar’ino and repelling last week’s Ukrainian attempt to hold the line at Novoivanovka. Additionally, Russian forces are clearing grey zones in the northwest.

Things are going well over at Twitter

I kinda made a pack for OSINT, flight tracking and event geolocations. Work in progress. go.bsky.app/NKZeoR9

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