It can feel like bases in Mali are captured by insurgents fairly regularly, but very little progress is made. Here's why that is👇 open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

A Russian MoD map has been leaked. While it's not particularly accurate, it can still be useful in understanding the war in Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

After seeing more and more AI maps come up on my feed this month, I've written up some of the ways you can identify them. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

For some reason, almost all of the AI maps I've seen have been for Mali/Sahel. Some of them do look good at first glance, but they are full of inaccuracies.

An update article on the situation in Mali after the attacks over the weekend and Islamic State starting attacks of its own. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

🇲🇱 A map of the current situation in Mali as attacks by the JNIM and FLA coalition continue. The coalition has taken control of Kidal, Tessalit, Tessit, Ber, and the mines at In-Tahaka. Not wanting to miss out, ISSP seized Labbezanga, but their attempt to take Ménaka failed.

A heatmap for the strikes in Iran that have been possible to verify so far. The greatest concentration is, of course, Tehran.

Updated Strike map for Iran. You can check through datapoints for yourself here: warmapper.org/iran-strikes

I thought I would share some of the strike data that I have. It's a work in progress, and a lot of the labelling and sourcing are still being moved across. warmapper.org/iran-strikes

Close-up satellite imagery from @vantortech.bsky.social showing damage to hardened shelters at the Iranian drone base at Konarak airport.

Close-up satellite imagery from @vantortech.bsky.social showing impacts at the Iranian naval base in Konarak.

Middle East strike map update: 🇮🇷 Nationwide demonstrations that had resumed in the wake of the Ayatollah's death were suppressed by police and government forces. There has been a notable increase in strikes confirmed against police sites across Iran in the past day.

Saudi Arabia and Cyprus/UK? are both now on the list of countries targeted. --> A Saudi Aramco facility in Dammam, near Bahrain, was targeted. --> The UK military base RAF Akrotiri, located in Cyprus, was targeted by drones.

Updated strike map. Notable new strike locations include: --> The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi, --> Port of Duqm in Oman, --> Tabriz North Missile Base in northern Iran. Note: Only an approximate 4% of claimed strikes on Iran have been confirmed and marked.

An updated map of confirmed strikes. Notable new strikes include: Abu Dhabi International Airport, Dubai International Airport, Bahrain International Airport, and at least 3 strikes on Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

A preliminary map of the strikes by Israel and the United States on Iran, and the strikes by Iran on Israel and US bases across the Middle East. Strikes have been more widespread than is represented; these are based only on reliable reports and confirmations.

Ukraine map updates: On the approach to Slov'iansk, Russia has continued the gradual advances of the past few weeks. They have now pushed beyond the northern edge of Nykyforivka.

As I mentioned on Twitter, 90% of the counteroffensive maps you'll have seen are mappers correcting overmarking of Russian advances. Those villages were never truly under Russian control. It was small forward units in contested areas; these are largely just fluctuations in the contested zones.

Ukraine map updates: Russian forces have continued to make advances around Kostiantynivka over the past week, entering the western side of the settlement.

Ukraine map updates: On the approach to Slov’iansk, Russia has pushed south from their positions in Zakitne, on the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Russia has also continued advancing along the E40 and now holds positions on the northern edge of the settlement of Pryvillia.

Map updates will be starting again this week for Ukraine. There have been a couple of small changes to the way I make them, which are detailed here:

A look at the changes in Syria and what it could mean for the Kurdish people. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

This week's brief takes a look at the newly declared state in South Yemen, the US arrest of Maduro last week, and the ongoing protests in Iran open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

Happy New Year everyone! 🎊🎉

This week's brief looks at the Armed Chinese container ship, US strikes on IS in Nigeria, and a plane crash that killed Libya's top General. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

Merry Christmas everyone! 🎄

A look at the failed coup attempt in Benin and the regional response, plus an update on Niger’s uranium convoy. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

A map of the current situation in the western Sahel, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are fighting jihadist and separatist insurgencies. Due to the nature of the conflict, the operational areas of the insurgent groups are shown rather than 'control'.

It’s been a frustrating few months, as other life priorities have kept me from working on anything for this account (USAID funding 😉). I won’t commit to a return date as I’ve tried that before and wasn’t able to stick to it.

Close-up satellite imagery of the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran following Israeli strikes last night. High-resolution visuals show visible damage to multiple structures across the site. soar.earth/draw/2257

Ukraine updates for the past fortnight: Russian forces advancing west of Nevske and Terny have reached and taken Katerynivka as well as positions along the Ukrainian fortification line in the area.

I didn't want my investments to go up anyway

As of the end of March 2025, Russia occupies 18.3% (+0.05%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 272.72km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: A new Ukrainian incursion has entered the settlements of Demidovka and Popovka in Belgorod oblast, directly south of the previous Ukrainian offensive into Kursk.

As of the end of February 2025, Russia occupied 18.26% (+0.05%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 251km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: In Kursk, Russian forces have successfully pushed Ukrainian units out. Continued pressure on the flanks of the incursion ultimately forced the withdrawal. While some Ukrainian elements may still be present in the forests to the south, the incursion can largely be considered over.

With Russia rejecting a ceasefire, it will soon be clear whether Trump’s tough stance on Ukraine was an aim for peace or favouring Russia. Russia's refusal suggests they don’t see resumed U.S. support as likely, as their only motive to accept a ceasefire would be to prevent it.

Ukraine updates: In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.

Ukraine updates: Ukraine have carried out a counterattack in Kursk securing the precarious position that had been developing south of Sudzha. Meanwhile, Russia has taken positions inside Sverdlikovo, northwest of Sudzha.

But first, I want to thank today's sponsor TahrirVPN.

As of the end of January 2025, Russia occupied 18.21% (+0.07%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 427.47km² over the month.

Ukraine updates: In Kharkiv, Russia has significantly expanded its positions on the western bank of the Oskil River. They have taken positions both north and south of the previous area of control in Dvorichna.

Ukraine map updates: Russian forces have taken control of Vremivka and thus the final road out of Velyka Novosilka. The settlement is now effectively cut off and Russia has begun assaulting from the west. Some Ukrainian forces remain in the town.

Ukraine war updates: Russia has continued retaking lost areas of Kursk. Pogrebki is again contested. Further east, Russia has retaken control of Russskoye Porechnoye.

I have put together a brief background on the historical leadership of Mali as an introduction to a planned series of articles on the current situation in Mali. open.substack.com/pub/warmappe...

In 2024, Russian forces expanded their control in Ukraine by approximately 3,200 km², increasing the total occupied area to 18.14% of the country. This represents an additional 0.54% of Ukraine’s total territory coming under Russian control during the year.

As of the end of December 2024, Russia occupied 18.14% (+0.07%) of Ukraine, including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk occupied before 2022, shown in purple. This represents a net gain by Russia of approximately 408km² over the month.

Uncovered some old research of mine. Willing to offer expertise for the upcoming movie.

Happy New Year!