With his confirmation by the Senate today, Scott Turner becomes the FIRST U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to come into the job with actual experience producing housing supply on the private side. ... and also the 2nd former NFL player to hold the office.

On earnings call today, the CEO of EQR (one of the nation's largest apartment owners) called out L.A.'s heavy-handed approach to apartment owners as a deterrent to new housing construction. "If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right signals."

Multifamily's biggest investor event, NMHC Annual Meeting, wraps up today. Here are some takeaways: 1) Lots of short-term uncertainty due to rates, but mid/long-term bullishness with strong demand and falling supply. A 50-year peak in supply is currently pushing rents negative, but...

Great chart from John Burns showing that more than HALF of the existing build-to-rent units were built in just the last two years. It's a good reminder that we're still in the early innings of build-to-rent.

What a difference 3 months make. This NMHC survey perfectly captures the mood swing among apartment executives. Back in October, bullishness was at a 2-year high. Here in January, optimism has been put on hold again. What changed? Not supply, demand, rents or the economy.

Final numbers for 2024: Multifamily builders started 254,100 fewer units than they completed. That's the second-biggest deficit on record, behind only 1974. And multifamily starts in 2024 totaled lowest since 2013. Yet another clear indicator that new apartment supply will plunge by 2026.

The rental housing business might be the most fragmented industry in the United States. Even the biggest owners are rounding errors in terms of market share. No company comes close to owning even 1% of U.S. apartments or single-family rentals.

For anyone concerned about junk fees and hidden costs driving up rents, try to plan/entitle/permit/build/operate a new apartment property in a large U.S. city.

The final numbers are in, and apartment demand came in WAYYYY above anyone's expectations for 2024. I was probably as bullish as anyone going into 2024, but not THIS bullish. The U.S. added ~600k apartment households in 2024, and the story isn't as simple as you might think.

Anything that makes housing construction more expensive makes housing costs/rents more expensive.

Voucher holders are often required to wait out bureaucratic box checking before they can move into a rental. Meanwhile, the unit just sits vacant. Lose/lose. Non-voucher holders just sign a lease and move in. Why do voucher programs treat voucher holders like 2nd class citizens?

This is why every apartment and single-family rental investor should CHEER for a strong, healthy for-sale housing market. The downstream impact of homebuying is massive. Rising tide boosts all ships. Strong years for homebuyers = strong years for rental investors, too.

Very simple and practical tips for renters here -- especially in high-supplied markets like Austin.

The consensus view going into 2024 was that single-family rent growth would re-accelerate due to a slow/pricey for-sale housing market pushing more demand into rentals. I said the opposite, and turned out to be right. No re-acceleration in 2024.

Multifamily housing starts dropped to the lowest levels in a decade, according to U.S. Census data released yesterday, further evidence that the apartment supply cooldown will be deeper than a mere return to pre-COVID norms.

Multifamily housing starts in November 2024 were the third lowest of any month since 2015 -- only higher than March 2024 (same headwinds) and April 2020 (COVID lockdowns).

It appears the FTC has excluded apartment and SFR owners from its new "junk fee" rules announced yesterday -- instead narrowing its scope to live-event ticketing and short-term lodging. Rental housing (application/screening fees etc.) was part of the FTC's initial scope announced last year.

Posting the same content on both Bluesky and X is kind of like having to send the same text message to two groups of friends separately b/c they don't interact with each other.

The free market cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own. The government cannot solve rental housing supply and affordability challenges on its own. Together, in good-faith partnership and collaboration, we can.

Statement from Senator Tim Scott lays out two of HUD Secretrary nominee Scott Turner's priorities after meeting together: - reduce red tape to build more housing - double down on Opportunity Zones to build more housing

CBRE is forecasting a big inflection point for multifamily in the next 12 months. Every major Sun Belt / Mountain market -- EXCEPT Austin and Salt Lake City -- is projected to return to positive rent growth + declining vacancy by early 2026. The two laggards take another qtr.

This is a helpful chart (with Census data) to illustrate a big reason why home prices have been so sticky. It's not investor driven, as conspiracy theorists argue. It's demand > supply. We've added more homeowners than we've added for-sale homes over the last decade.

The big 3 rental housing topics most studied in academia, and the consensus conclusions: 1) Rent control exacerbates affordability challenges in long run. 2) New "luxury" housing improves affordability at lower end of market. 3) Inclusionary zoning reduces total new housing supply. 🧵

I was once (a couple years ago) a skeptic of rental housing "filtering" -- the theory that new "luxury" apartments pull up higher-income renters from moderate-priced rentals, thereby benefitting moderate-income renters, and on down the line. I am no longer a skeptic.

In housing policy, Affordable Housing is a specific technical term that means “income-restricted, generally subsidized housing reserved for poor people.” Politicians often exploit people’s ignorance of this fact by claiming they’re for Affordable Housing while blocking inexpensive apartments.

If Atlas Van Lines is to believed, it took until 2024 for people to realize Texas is hot and that a 50% discount in housing prices/rents relative to a typical coastal market isn't enough.

This statement -- by a Moody's economist!!! (sheesh) -- in today's WSJ reflects a common misunderstanding of the build-to-rent housing market. Anyone listening to builders knows that BTR is generally net additive supply -- not supply "being diverted" from for-sale housing.

The average age of an American rental unit? 44 years old! Oldest in history. Adds up to $51.5 BILLION in deferred costs to repair America's existing rental units. Great nugget from @harvard-jchs.bsky.social 2024 report.

Inclusionary zoning—the practice of requiring developers to rent new apartments at a loss to low-income tenants—is bad policy that exacerbates the housing shortage, increases housing prices, and leaves most poor people worse off. We should stop doing it!

In the Texas vs. SoCal debates, the fanboys and haters both tend to get it wrong. Over the long haul, the different headwinds and tailwinds balance out. From this week's podcast:

Looks like the RealPage DOJ investigation on their algorithm pricing … is over

If the four regions of the country were four housing bros, I think this is who each would be: Sun Belt: The youngest bro. The little twerp used to be the one everyone beat up on, but then he grew into the tallest and most athletic -- and lets his brothers know it. Still acts like a kid sometimes.

On "The Rent Roll" podcast this week, I talked with Waterford co-founder John Drachman, aka "Dr. Doom," about the differences in investing in California vs Texas (he's a believer in both) and on workforce/attainable housing in particular. I think he's right on the emerging need/opportunity.

Who had Detroit on their bingo card for No. 1 market for apartment rent growth? No surprise that the top 10 includes only markets with little-to-moderate supply growth.

If you're a renter planning to renew your lease over the next few months, you might consider seeing if your property manager would offer a longer term (15-18 months) in exchange for a lower monthly rent. Might be a win if rents re-accelerate next year (depending where you live).

Texas led the nation in apartment demand over the last 12 months. And yet rents fell in Texas more than most of the country... I wonder why. 🤔 j/k. It's obvious to everyone but science deniers: SUPPLY. Texas is building A LOT.

Brookfield buying 4,143 apartment units (8 properties) from Blackstone in an eclectic mix of markets -- Las Vegas, Phoenix, Columbus OH, Charlotte and Chapel Hill NC -- for $845m.

The discount to rent-vs-buy remains stuck at the highest level in decades. And John Burns Research & Consulting thinks that wide margin will linger for at least the next several years.

Good read on Greystar's dive into modular apartment construction. As article notes: Modular only works in specific situations (& close to factories), so it's probably not "the next big thing," but it can be effective way to build moderately cheaper and therefore deliver moderately cheaper rents.

Multifamily construction jobs surged from 2021-23 as rent growth led to a construction boomed. But it's been flat-ish in recent months as more units complete than start -- meaning it's harder for construction workers wrapping up projects to find the next gig.

Black Friday provides an excellent, consolidated list of all the marketing email lists I need to unsubscribe from.

New episode of The Rent Roll podcast out today, talking about the institutional buy box for affordable and workforce housing with FCP's Alecia Hill -- reigning champ of NMHC's "young guns" investment pitch competition.

If confirmed by the Senate, Scott would become (I believe) the first Secretary of Housing and Urban Development who has experience in the field as a private-sector housing developer. He understands how to build more housing -- and the obstacles to doing so.

Scott Turner, Trump's pick for HUD Secretary, is a man of incredibly infectious optimism, faith and love for people. Genuine love for helping others. AND a guy with a background in multifamily housing development! Plus champion of Opportunity Zones. (And a former NFL player.) Home run.

Headline writers: In real estate, "Private Equity" is a massive umbrella term for anything that isn't a publicly traded REIT or government. It's not a synonym for "large company." Additionally, "private equity" can invest in publicly traded companies, too.

What's going on in Atlanta? It's one of the softness rental housing markets in the U.S. right now. New lease apartment rents fell 5.7% in Q3, 3rd-lowest in country behind Austin and Jacksonville. Its occupancy rate, 92.6%, is also one of the nation’s weakest.

Reducing renter turnover = $$$ UDR (big apartment REIT) estimates that "for every individual we save, it's approximately $5,000." Reducing turnover by 1,800 units in last 12 months "translates to about $9 million in NOI" for UDR.

Enjoying Bluesky, but I have one gripe: The clickbaity stuff from other platforms seems to be replaced by "Bluesky is awesome, the other platform isn't" fan spam. Just a different type of clutter in feed. Need to figure out how to better use those customizable algo features, I suppose.

Affordable housing "preservation" is a hot topic, and for good reason -- w/ 350k+ units tied to expiring tax credits over next 5 years. But we need to expand our definition of "preservation." It's not just preserving affordability. It's also preserving the physical buildings.

Bill Freeman was a founding father of the modern Nashville apartment market. He was in on it long before it was cool. His company, Freeman Webb, today owns 9k units in metro Nashville. Sad to read of his passing. Legend.