Le changement climatique (CC) n'augmente pas le nombre de cyclones mais la proportion des +intenses. Dit autrement, le CC inhibe en moyenne la formation des cyclones mais quand ils se forment, ils s'intensifient +rapidement, sont de catégories +élevées avec des effets (inondations...) démultipliés.

Here’s a 48-hour water vapor loop of Ex-Hurricane Erin spinning on its final approach to Europe. Truly mesmerizing.

The HuracanPy JOSS paper is officially out! 🌀 If you ever find yourself working with cyclone track data, we hope you'll find it useful! Feel free to contribute suggestions and code! doi.org/10.21105/jos...

Qques mots forts que j'ai prononcés avec émotion @franceinfo.fr C'est un mensonge de laisser croire que l'on s'adaptera sans casse irréversible dans une France à 4°C. On ne s'adapte pas a un effondrement de la biodiversité; on meurt avec! Les régressions actuelles sont irresponsables & suicidaires.

Il est cynique d'invoquer le changement climatique quand cela arrange pour invisibiliser les autres causes des catastrophes liées à des choix historiques&politiques (vulnérabilités). Raisonner ainsi actera l’échec de l'adaptation. Nous climatologues, le dénonçons! Fil🧵 www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 24/24: Danielle 2022. 🌀 Last of our series is Danielle 2022! Another subtropical storm, which caused flooding and landslides in Portugal.

"Chaque désastre est devenu une opportunité pour faire triompher ses valeurs, son idéologie et ses convictions, quitte à se livrer parfois à une instrumentalisation écœurante." Analyse de @magalireghezza.bsky.social sur la situation à Mayotte bonpote.com/mayotte-a-qu...

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 20/24: Lorenzo 2019. 🌀 Lorenzo was a category 5 major hurricane over the open Atlantic Ocean, that reached Ireland after having substantially weakened.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 19/24: Leslie 2018. 🌀 Leslie was a rather unusual subtropical storm that nearly hit Portugal with tropical characteristics. It made 2 direct and 15 indirect victims.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 18/24: Ophelia 2017. 🌀 Now for the celebrity of the show: Hurricane Ophelia. Ophelia hit Ireland and the UK with extremely powerful winds, causing 3 deaths. It became a benchmark storm for the field and is now subject of case studies.

Si le lien entre Chido et le réchauffement climatique est difficile à établir, la tendance à long terme est claire: les cyclones vont être plus puissants, associés à plus de pluies et s'intensifier rapidement en raison de la hausse des émissions de gaz à effet de serre www.lemonde.fr/planete/arti...

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 15/24: Henri 2015. 🌀 La tempête tropicale Henri de 2015, bien que inoffensive pendant sa phase tropicale, fit des dégâts en France et en Allemagne, et 3 victimes.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 14/24: Gonzalo 2014. 🌀 In 2014, Gonzalo managed to cross the entire Europe, from the UK to Greece. Unfortunately, it made three victims along the way.

🌀Le scénario que l’on considérait comme le pire vient de frapper #Mayotte, où le cyclone #Chido a causé au moins 2 morts & des destructions impensables pour une population vulnérable. ∙226 km/h - Dzaoudzi ∙218 km/h - Pamandzi Les rafales estimées en mer pourraient atteindre 280km/h. @meteociel.fr

Le scénario du pire est en cours. L'œil du cyclone frappe de plein fouet Mayotte, dont la population est très VULNERABLE : choléra, accès à l'eau, bidonville, 77% de pauvreté... La 1ère tâche de notre #PremierMinistre doit absolument garantir la sécurité de nos concitoyens ! Quelle tristesse !

Hélas le pire est en train de se dérouler à #Mayotte l'œil du cyclone va traverser l'île d'ici quelques minutes L'Alerte violette 🟣 est en cours, l'œil du cyclone va créer une accalmie temporaire avant le passage du second mur du cyclone #CHIDO

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 13/24: Katia 2011. 🌀 Katia was a powerful post-tropical cyclone that had impact in Northern UK, and made two victims.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 12/24: Gordon 2006. 🌀 Gordon was a powerful storm that affected strongly both the Iberian peninsula and the British Isles, cutting power to more than 200,000 people.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 11/24: Maria 2005. 🌀 We are moving North with Maria, which impacted Iceland and Scandinavia. It made 3 victims in Norway.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 🔟/24: Mitch 1998. 🌀 Hurricane Mitch was the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on reacord, with 11,374 fatalities. However, I am mentionning it here because it also impacted the British Isles (although with no victim there)

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 9️⃣/24: Lili 1996. 🌀 In the end of October 1996; ex-hurricane Lili hit the British Isles, bringing wind gusts up to 148 km/h (92 mph, about the order of magnitude of Darragh this week-end). Six person died in the UK.

📆 Calendrier de l'avent des ex-ouragans 8️⃣/24: Iris 1995. 🌀 Si Iris a atteint la France métropolitaine à la fin de son parcours, c'est en outre-mer qu'elle a fait l'intégralité de ses victimes, au nombre de 5.

📆 Calendrier de l'avent des ex-ouragans 7️⃣/24: Floyd 1993. 🌀 L'ex-ouragan Floyd a frappé la France et le Royaume-Uni le 13 Septembre 1993, avec des rafales jusqu'au 127 km/h, mais aucune victime.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 6️⃣/24: Charley 1986. 🌀 Charley was another deadly ex-hurricane that hit the British Isles, resulting in at least 11 deaths.

📆 Calendrier de l'avent des ex-ouragans 5️⃣/24: Chloe 1967. 🌀 (Today's one will be in French because it hit France) L'ouragan Chloe de 1967 est probablement l'ouragan qui a approché la France de plus près.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 4️⃣/24: Faith 1966. 🌀 Faith was a cat. 3 hurricane that reached Northern Europe and made 5 casualties, of which 4 in Europe, despite not making landfall before it was an extra-tropical remnant.

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 3️⃣/24: Debbie 1961. 🌀 Debbie is probably the cyclone we will study that made the most victims in Europe (18). In fact, Debbie is the "benchmark storm" for Ireland and "remains the most severe storm to have affected Ireland in modern memory" (Graham & Smart, 2021)

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 2️⃣/24: Carrie 1957. 🌀 Carrie was the most intense hurricane of the 1957, reaching category 4. It was one of the longest-travelling tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, and reached the British Isles shortly after transition. 🧵

📆 Ex-hurricanes advent calendar day 1️⃣/24: the "Halloween Tropical Storm of 1887". 🌀 It is challenging to find reliable information on storms before the satellite era, so this cyclone will be the only one pre-1950 and will illustrate how we can learn about historical storms!

🌀Ex-hurricanes advent calendar 📆 When Kirk hit France, I was asked how unusual ex-hurricanes reaching Europe were. I had the idea to describe some past events in a 1-a-day type of project. Not sure anyone needs it... But I do, so here we go! 🧵: background and links to the 📆.

Advertising for a PhD position at Oxford working with me and Tad Komacek. Project is on climate modelling using automatic differentiation with Enzyme in SpeedyWeather.jl applied to Earth and exoplanets. Plenty of space for ML/GPU/HPC/data visualisation projects within that PhD position too!

I've been around here for a bit but now seems like the right time make the actual shift, and I'm looking for rebuilding my feed. Trying to keep it academic&operational climate&meteo related, especially cyclones and extreme events, please say hi if that's you or point out to useful lists!