BLOG: Trump has some leverage over Iran but not huge: experts say Iran can easily withstand blockade of oil exports — oil capacity will be largely restored after war — manageable small LNG production drop You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/trump-has-...

BLOG: Block on Hormuz strait nowhere enough to cause global recession — not even in IMF scenario where it's blocked to end of 2027 — and US IS affected — Trump under pressure to unblock well before midterms — and consumer price increases for G20: 1.2% robertinventor.substack.com/p/the-block-...

BLOG: Hantavirus outbreak is small — only 7 contacts infected from initial case — all infected on cruise ship — no contacts of contacts tested positive — may be more cases but no risk of epidemic You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/hantavirus...

BLOG: Iran negotiations underway for Memorandum of Understanding — Trump: US attempt to get ships through the blockade paused — Rubio: Epic Fury war has ended — Iran and US blockades continue for now You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-negot...

BLOG: Hantavirus outbreak on cruise ship is unlikely to spread far — human to human spread rare — dozens of disease outbreaks every year of various dieases — often in small clusters in special conditions You can read it here: shortdebunks.substack.com/p/hantavirus...

BLOG: How Trump can end the Iran negotiations impasse — just shift to a new position — and say he never shifted and that he's won — why you almost never catch him changing position You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/how-trump-...

BLOG: Trump needs a majority in each chamber to continue Iran war beyond 60 days — likely can't get it — told Congress war terminated before its one week recess — only minor breaches of ceasefire on Monday You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/trump-need...

Will post at some point about how Black African Americans have already achieved more than proportional representation in the House. Louisiana case won't change that. I make it 65 directly verified to the Clerk of House photos. 30 of the 65 women still in proportion. ddebunked.org/d/3828-graph...

BLOG: Minimal effect from SCOTUS Louisiana ruling: 1-2 seats for House in 2026 — at most 10 in 2028 likely counteracted by Dems — House margins typically larger — election of president or senate unchanged You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/effect-of-...

BLOG: New second round of talks in Islamabad at low level and indirect — with possibly Vance joining later — "the ice seems to be melting" — Pakistani journalist Anas Mallak You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/new-second...

BLOG: Iran / US close to a deal — built surprising though minimal level of trust — many issues resolved — but still stuck in a stand-off that may last days — probably over zero enrichment v. zero stockpiles You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-us-cl...

BLOG: US and Iran talks seem a go — likely simple Islamabad declaration with core points — America doesn't have experts for a robust deal — Iran does and offered far stronger than JCPOA before war started You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/us-and-ira...

BLOG: Shift of Hungary from far right to centre-right: Peter Mayar's 2/3 majority will completely overturn all far right changes Orban made — restore LGBT rights — won't block EU aid to Ukraine You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/hungary-el...

BLOG: Many signals suggest US and Iran close to a framework no nukes deal to end the war — likely second round of negotiations in Islamabad — Trump may go himself to sign the deal — then 60 days to complete You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/many-signa...

BLOG: Mythos AI is a coding tool that DETECTS vulnerabilities AND builds EXPLOITS for them — so Anthropic will use it to ALERT developers to vulnerabilities and not release it — to make software MORE SECURE You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/mythos-ai-...

BLOG: Replacing Powell by Warsh as FOMC Chair will likely have no significant effect on Federal Bank decisions — they attempt a consensus — or if no consensus, choose by majority of 7 out of 12 You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/replacing-...

BLOG: No risk of Emperor penguin or fur seal going extinct — Emperor penguin bounce back in second half of century on our low emissions path — Fur seal populations large and likely reach new equilibrium You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/no-risk-of...

BLOG: The long negotations in Islamabad were very positive — central issue: US wants zero enrichment — Iran wants zero stockpiles — both methods stop nukes — US likely concedes to Iran's demands eventually You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/the-long-n...

Peter Magyar set to win a 2/3 majority and Victor Orban already conceded, for Hungary. Shift away from far right: pro EU, pro LGBT, pro fair elections in Hungary, not exactly pro Ukraine but unlikely to block Ukraine aid in the EU. ddebunked.org/d/3551-updat...

Peter Magyar set to win a 2/3 majority and Victor Orban already conceded, for Hungary. Shift away from far right, pro EU, pro LGBT, pro fair elections in Hungary, not exactly pro Ukraine but unlikely to block Ukraine aid in the EU. ddebunked.org/d/3551-updat...

BLOG: Direct high level talks between Iran and the US in presence of Pakistani mediators in the same room — for first time since 1979 — Four sessions — last one 1.30 — 3.30 am! You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/direct-hig...

BLOG: Iran ceasefire holds and is very positive — the ceasefire holds so far and many things are promising for it to last You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-cease...

BLOG: Trump can't end a civilization in 4 hours — COULD get Israel to TEMPORARILY cut major bridges + disconnect major power plants — US generals would refuse — BIG risk is to Trump not US You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/trump-cant...

(Offtopic) Artemis astronauts are now behind the moon. Their view of Earth disappearing behind the Moon as seen from Orion capsule Integrity. Sadly the Moon is below the horizon right now as seen from the UK Image was stretched horizontally - shrunk it a bit horizontally to compensate

BLOG: Trump's tweet does NOT risk larger war in Iran — rather a personal risk to Trump if he gives green light for Israel to attack a large civilian power plant and bridge in Iran — US generals would REFUSE You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-there-...

BLOG: The missing F-15E American Weapons System Officer has been rescued from Iran — upholding the US Airman's creed — "I will never leave an Airman behind" — shows air superiority but NOT air dominance You can read it here: shortdebunks.substack.com/p/the-missin...

BLOG: Iran likely used very small payloads to try to reach 3,800 km to UK territory of Diego Garcia — mainly symbolic value — Iran now fires few rockets per day at its neighbours — most shot down You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-likel...

BLOG: World Health Organization prepares Iran for UNLIKELY nuclear accident: mainly hit on power plant — worst case like Fukushima — VERY LOCAL — Israel and US will NOT use a nuke — Iran doesn’t have them You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/world-heal...

BLOG: 😔😊: Sad but positive — 😔: Trump attacked Iran — because Wiktoff didn’t have the technical knowledge to understand — 😊: he achieved a historic breakthrough — if signed, Iran will never have nukes You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/positive-b...

BLOG: Multiple wars going on at the same time do NOT mean a world war — very common — 6 occasions with 3 simultaneous wars — and 2 other occasions with 4 at once — from when I was a teenager to age 50 You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/multiple-w...

BLOG: Why Iran couldn't develop a nuke in less than years even before its program was obliterated — and few know that Iran votes every year for a nuclear weapons free Middle East You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-iran-c...

BLOG: Why you won't be drafted for Iran — even Gulf war didn't need draft — six months training before a draftee can fight — many anxiety disorders etc disqualify — and Congress has to pass a law to draft — can be filibustered You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-you-wo...

Video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc6H... BLOG: Why Trump can stop the Iran war at any time — not with a ceasefire — just when US and Israel stop their attacks — Iran will stop too once it is clear that they really have stopped You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-trump-...

Video: youtu.be/6xyQ2SE5W5A BLOG: Why US may stop Iran war soon — for a dozen sea mines — already releasing oil reserves for 3 weeks of blockage — Putin's unwavering support is words only + Supreme Leader's 1st message is as expected It's here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-us-may...

BLOG: Yes the US likely DID hit an elementary school BY MISTAKE — killed 160 girls and 5 staff — used to be a military building in 2013 — if true — impact is to reputation and should make reparations You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/yes-the-us...

BLOG: Why the oil price spikes from the Iran war are likely to be short — and large reserves to manage them if necessary You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-the-oi...

BLOG: Iran invasion not about nukes — not targeting nuclear sites — and Iran proposed a historic agreement to make them impossible for ever — no sunset clause — still within reach when war stops You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-invas...

BLOG: Why you won't be drafted for Ir an — Gulf war, Iraq war, Afghanistan and Syria didn't need draft — six months training to not be a liability on the battlefield — many anxiety disorders etc disqualify You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/why-you-wo...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Mar 7) — paused for no-news — trilateral in Abu Dhabi delayed because of Iran war — Russia pushed back — after Russia throttled Telegram & Musk blocked Starlink You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/updates-te...

BLOG: Motjabe Khameini as best successor for Ali Khameini in Iranian law to decide whether to agree to America's demands — as heir, he can set aside revenge, and choose forgiveness to preserve the system You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/motjabe-kh...

BLOG: Iran war likely short and limited in participants on both sides — and rapidly reduce in intensity of strikes on Iranian side — No risk of world war no matter how many join conflict — though unlikely to expand much beyond Israel + US v. Iran robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-war-l...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (March 2) — no new news — Ukrainians welcome the warmth of spring You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...

BLOG: Persona is respected — does NOT send anything to ICE — won't let its software be used for surveillance — and its "leak" was as inconsequential as a "leak" of the HTML code of a web page You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/persona-is...

BLOG: Iran war likely to be short: Iran wants to de-escalate and return to negotiations — Ayatollah likely soon replaced — no real possibility of regime change — and US can't sustain air defences for long — MID EDIT You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/iran-war-l...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Feb 27) — no new news You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Feb 26) — trilateral talks to continue in March — Russia's advance stopped and reversed for now — may encourage Russia to stop fighting if it is losing ground You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...

BLOG: Zelensky told BBC: Ukraine WILL WIN — STOPPED a world war — CONTINUES TO STOP a world war Putin already STARTED (Feb 24, 2022) — in English as usually understood — there never was a world war — may make more sense in Ukrainian You can read it here: robertinventor.substack.com/p/zelensky-t...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Feb 25) — US and Ukraine will meet on Feb 26 in Geneva — Russia not yet confirmed You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Feb 24) — Budanov: there is progress — cautious optimism — nothing will be revealed until it concludes — all about territory — either war continues or stops You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...

BLOG: 1960s LOD Ukraine News — all good (Feb 22) — next US / Ukraine / Russia meeting likely Feb 26 You can read it here: 1960styleukrainenews.substack.com/p/1960s-lod-...