Cogs of War
@cogs0fwar.bsky.social
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đź“ť 62
https://warontherocks.com/category/blogs/cogs-of-war/
The politics were complicated, and the costs and tradeoffs were real. Roosevelt opened the new year in 1941 on familiar terrain.
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/fdrs-message-on-the-defense-industry-for-the-new-year/
about 8 hours ago
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Defense innovation and industry sparked no shortage of ideas this year. These were the arguments readers returned to most.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/most-read-cogs-of-war-articles-of-2025/
2 days ago
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The AI debate inside the Pentagon is often framed as evolution or revolution. Is the military focused on being ready, or just on being early?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Case for Caution: Why the U.S. Military Shouldn't Organize Around AI… Yet
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense and Congress. Please also read the first,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-case-for-caution-why-the-u-s-military-shouldnt-organize-around-ai-yet/
10 days ago
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In space competition with China and Russia, how much the United States can lift and where it can put it still shapes power on Earth.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/at-a...
13 days ago
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Manhattan and Apollo worked because America chose to build, not just discover. Quantum will fail if it is treated differently.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Genesis Mission and Quantum Technologies
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth article in a four-part series exploring quantum technologies and industrial policy. Please also read the first,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-genesis-mission-and-quantum-technologies/
15 days ago
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The defense sector has tested the limits of additive manufacturing. Now it has to confront what actually drives production at scale.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/hybr...
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Hybrid Manufacturing: The Case for Agile Factories
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series exploring the modernization of defense manufacturing. Please also read the first: “The Additive
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/hybrid-manufacturing-the-case-for-agile-factories/
17 days ago
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Defense's vision for additive manufacturing is bold. Does reality match the hype?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Additive Manufacturing Mirage in Defense
Editor's note: This is the first article in a two-part series exploring additive manufacturing. The Pentagon has poured unprecedented funds into additive
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-additive-manufacturing-mirage-in-defense/
21 days ago
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America’s edge depends on talent, ideas, and long bets, many of which originate in the university system. What does that ecosystem look like today? Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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23 days ago
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Another ship program ends the same way: overspent, overdue, and unfinished. Will the Navy take its lessons seriously this time?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/afte...
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After the Constellation-Class: Lessons of the Navy’s Latest Shipbuilding Debacle
At a moment where many Navy shipbuilding programs are stalling, the Constellation-class guided missile frigate stands out as the most behind schedule, the
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/after-the-constellation-class-lessons-of-the-navys-latest-shipbuilding-debacle/
24 days ago
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The policy world may be lining up behind more agile portfolio management, but the committees that hold the purse haven’t moved an inch.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/acqu...
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Acquisition Reform vs. Congress: Who Will Win?
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law -Article I, Section 9, Clause 7, U.S. Constitution Weeks ago,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/acquisition-reform-vs-congress-who-will-win/
28 days ago
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The Small Business Innovation Research program is in limbo. The data points to a system that rewards insiders, while the innovators it was built for struggle to get a foothold.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/deca...
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Decades of Lost Potential in Defense Research and Development
America's greatest national security threat is an enemy born from and nurtured by the Pentagon: crippling bureaucracy. It starves the oxygen from good
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/decades-of-lost-potential-in-defense-research-and-development/
28 days ago
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An AI model that’s ethical on the battlefield may be corrosive across the other instruments of power. What happens to gray-zone competition when those boundaries start to erode?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/oper...
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Operating AI in the Gray Zone: Drawing Clear Lines Before They Blur
Editor’s Note: This is the third in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense & Congress. Please also read the first
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/operating-ai-in-the-gray-zone-drawing-clear-lines-before-they-blur/
about 1 month ago
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Washington is betting on innovation while competitors are betting on compliance. Right now, compliance is winning.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/how-...
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How Washington Is Losing the AI Race No One Is Tracking
Spain — a NATO ally and founding member of the European Union — chose a Chinese company to manage its law enforcement wiretap systems. The €12.3 million
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/how-washington-is-losing-the-ai-race-no-one-is-tracking/
about 1 month ago
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Congress designed a bill to keep advanced chips from China. Why is the Trump administration trying to bury it?
warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
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The White House Risks Squandering Its Own AI Leadership
The White House is reportedly lobbying Congress to kill the GAIN AI Act. If accurate, this represents one of the more baffling policy reversals of the
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-white-house-risks-squandering-its-own-ai-leadership/
about 1 month ago
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Future AI agents can fuse sensor data, predict adversary tactics, and cue fires. What they can’t do is break out of stovepipes on their own.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/stov...
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Stove-Piped Systems Will Strangle Advanced AI in the Cradle
Imagine deploying groundbreaking AI technologies — like machine learning and large language models — within defense organizations, only to confine them in
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/stove-piped-systems-will-strangle-advanced-ai-in-the-cradle/
about 1 month ago
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Modernization isn’t just about fielding more systems. It’s about making sure they’re actually ready when it counts.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/repl...
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Replicator 3 Should Be the Sustainment Revolution
Under the Arizona sun, mothballed aircraft glisten in perfect rows at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. In the brackish calm of the James River, reserve ships
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/replicator-3-should-be-the-sustainment-revolution/
about 1 month ago
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Slick marketing helps defense startups find investors and partners. It also helps America's adversaries map future capabilities.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/are-...
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Are New Defense Companies Giving Away Sensitive Info Through Marketing?
“Loose lips sink ships.” It was catchy, memorable, and above all, true. That wisdom feels incompatible with Silicon Valley’s culture and business model,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/are-new-defense-companies-giving-away-sensitive-info-through-marketing/
about 2 months ago
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The secretary’s speech made the case for speed and reform. The system will only deliver it if budget law, training, and congressional trust evolve with it.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/acqu...
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Acquisition Transformation: How to Make it Last
There are plenty of elements to praise in Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s acquisition transformation announcement last week. The emphasis on speed and
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/acquisition-transformation-how-to-make-it-last/
about 2 months ago
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The U.S. military has more autonomy programs than it can count — and fewer standards than it takes to make them work.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/with...
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Without a Standard for Autonomy, the U.S. Military Will Get Lost in the Fog of War
Popular culture often distorts autonomy into science fiction caricatures. This framing obscures the real challenges and opportunities facing the U.S.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/without-a-standard-for-autonomy-the-u-s-military-will-get-lost-in-the-fog-of-war/
about 2 months ago
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Modern intelligence lives in the open, but it takes mastery to stay unseen. This conversation explores the new hidden tradecraft of the open web. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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about 2 months ago
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The U.S. Navy’s production bottleneck isn’t theoretical. It’s now, and onshoring commercial shipping won’t fix it.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/amer...
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America Should Build Its Own Warships While Buying Tankers
Shipbuilding is having a moment in Washington. That’s great, but hype doesn’t float boats. Reshoring commercial shipbuilding is billed as the key to
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/america-should-build-its-own-warships-while-buying-tankers/
about 2 months ago
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Engineers measure trust in data integrity. Lawyers measure it in liability. Operators measure it in survival. The Pentagon needs an arbiter who can make those tradeoffs real.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/warf...
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Warfighters, Not Engineers, Decide What AI Can Be Trusted
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense and Congress. Please also read the first:
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/warfighters-not-engineers-decide-what-ai-can-be-trusted/
about 2 months ago
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The defense enterprise keeps choosing the easy wrong: another patch, another pilot, another promise. The harder right is to rebuild.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-cl...
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A Clean Sheet Redesign of the Small Business Innovation Research Program
At a certain point in software development, patches, fixes, and repairs hit a point of diminishing returns. The system becomes so saturated with technical
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/a-clean-sheet-redesign-of-the-small-business-innovation-research-program/
about 2 months ago
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The United States has built momentum in quantum. Smart policy will decide if it becomes an American jobs story.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/igni...
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Igniting the American Quantum Economy
Editor’s Note: This is the third article in a four-part series. The first article, “America’s Quantum Moment,” was published on Oct. 13, 2025, and the
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/igniting-the-american-quantum-economy/
2 months ago
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These companies are building fast, cheap, and upgradable missiles. Will Washington catch up? Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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2 months ago
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A policy meant to streamline software procurement could instead grind innovation to a halt.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...
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The Air Force is Kneecapping Software Innovation
The Department of the Air Force chief information officer announced a new policy change by sharing a post from a contractor, with the tag, “Strategic
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-air-force-is-kneecapping-software-innovation/
2 months ago
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The quantum race isn’t just about qubits. It’s about what keeps them cold, powered, and pure. The second piece in our series examines the supply chains that decide who will build the future.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...
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The Supply Chain Chokepoints in Quantum
Editor’s Note: This is the second article in a four-part series. The first article, “America’s Quantum Moment,” was published on Oct. 13, 2025. As
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-supply-chain-chokepoints-in-quantum/
2 months ago
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Quantum technology is moving from labs to markets. America’s strategy needs to keep pace.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/amer...
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America’s Quantum Manufacturing Moment
Editor’s Note: This is the first in a four-part series. The world is in the early stages of the next industrial revolution: quantum technology. The
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/americas-quantum-manufacturing-moment/
3 months ago
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Most AI debates fixate on budgets or “killer robots.” The deeper questions are harder. This article is the first in a series confronting them.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/four...
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Four AI Policy Choices Policymakers Can’t Afford to Get Wrong
Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of articles. Subsequent articles will examine answers to each of the four questions laid out below. As
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/four-ai-policy-choices-policymakers-cant-afford-to-get-wrong/
3 months ago
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The U.S. government can build fabs. The real test is whether “chip-for-chip” can make them run.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/can-...
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Can Lutnick’s Chip-for-Chip Idea Work?
The Commerce Department’s imminent Section 232 investigation — launched in April and expected to conclude soon — may fundamentally shift how the United
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/can-lutnicks-chip-for-chip-idea-work/
3 months ago
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Dual-use tech is booming, but inflated valuations and shaky defense budgets could spell trouble. What does it take to succeed? Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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3 months ago
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The future of war isn’t just cyber and space. Biology is moving to the front lines.
warontherocks.com/2025/10/when...
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https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/when-biology-meets-the-battlefield-an-interview-with-diane-dieuliis/
3 months ago
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Politics, profit, and propulsion collide in the story of this American space launch company. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762
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3 months ago
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Golden Dome is not one design but many. Each architecture carries its own price and its own risks.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/gold...
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Golden Dome is a Trillion Dollar Gambit
U.S. President Donald Trump set high expectations for “Golden Dome.” His executive order directing development of this homeland air and missile defense
https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/golden-dome-is-a-trillion-dollar-gambit/
3 months ago
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These authors reflect on their war techno-thriller that imagined the future fight — and then watched much of it come true.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/ghos...
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Ghost Fleet, Ten Years Later: An Interview with P.W. Singer and August Cole
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with P.W. Singer and August Cole, who in 2015 published Ghost Fleet, a futuristic thriller depicting the next
https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/ghost-fleet-ten-years-later-an-interview-with-p-w-singer-and-august-cole/
4 months ago
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House and Senate appropriators shape the future of U.S. defense. This year, their bills reveal clear strategic contrasts.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/exam...
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Examining House–Senate Differences in FY2026 Defense Appropriations
The House and Senate appropriations committees each approved their own versions of the Fiscal Year 2026 Department of Defense Appropriations Act in July,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/examining-house-senate-differences-in-fy2026-defense-appropriations/
4 months ago
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Data centers are no longer back-end utilities. They are strategic assets — and prime targets.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/data...
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Data Centers on the 21st Century Battlefield
The most decisive infrastructure of the twenty-first century isn’t an aircraft carrier floating in the Pacific or buried in a missile silo. It hums
https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/data-centers-on-the-21st-century-battlefield/
4 months ago
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Testing doesn’t have to slow innovation. With the right tools, it can accelerate it.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/the-...
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The Pentagon’s Software Revolution and Its Testing Dilemma
On a desert airstrip, swarms of autonomous drones rise into the sky — a glimpse of the Pentagon’s vision for future war. The Navy has even shown it can
https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/the-pentagons-software-revolution-and-its-testing-dilemma/
4 months ago
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The Pentagon’s rare earth deal showed chokepoints can be fixed with the right tools. The same playbook must be extended across the materials supply chain before it is too late.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/thes...
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These Materials Could Cripple America’s Defense Industrial Base - War on the Rocks
The Pentagon’s arsenal and defense industrial base is built on materials that China can turn off like a light switch. Growing uncertainty in critical
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/these-materials-could-cripple-americas-defense-industrial-base/
4 months ago
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Silicon Valley promises to reinvent defense. But behind the hype, Jonathan Panter argues, the business model looks familiar.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/a-sk...
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A Skeptic’s View of the Hype Machine and Business Model of Neo-Defense Tech - War on the Rocks
Anduril, the $30 billion defense startup, is on a roll. In May, it partnered with Meta to build virtual reality devices for the U.S. Army. In July, it won
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/a-skeptics-view-of-the-hype-machine-and-business-model-of-neo-defense-tech/
4 months ago
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This CEO made America home — and he knows pushing defense innovation faster is the only way forward. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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4 months ago
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Some interceptors must push physics. Others must roll off the line. Golden Dome needs both.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/gold...
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Golden Dome’s Gamble: Can Industry Move Fast Enough to Matter? - War on the Rocks
In 2019, China's military showcased a hypersonic ballistic missile reportedly capable of breaching existing anti-missile shields. The question facing U.S.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/golden-domes-gamble-can-industry-move-fast-enough-to-matter/
4 months ago
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Kicking off our written interview series, Perry Boyle takes us inside Ukraine’s growing defense industry and his mission to scale its wartime tech.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/inve...
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Investing in Ukraine’s Defense Edge: A Conversation with Perry Boyle - War on the Rocks
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Perry Boyle, the CEO and co-founder of MITS Capital LLC, which is working to bring capital to the Ukrainian
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/investing-in-ukraines-defense-edge-a-conversation-with-perry-boyle/
5 months ago
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A career-ending injury could have ended Joe Musselman's commitment to serve. Instead, it fueled a new mission. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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5 months ago
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A military equipped with AI is not the same as a military prepared to use it well.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/buil...
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Building Trust in Military AI Starts with Opening the Black Box - War on the Rocks
At high-profile TED-style events with millions of online viewers, charismatic tech CEOs take the stage to unveil their latest gadgets. In slick,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/building-trust-in-military-ai-starts-with-opening-the-black-box/
5 months ago
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Not all AI innovation should fly under the regulatory radar.
warontherocks.com/2025/08/high...
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High-Risk AI Models Need Military-Grade Security - War on the Rocks
The race to develop artificial general intelligence is accelerating, but America’s approach to securing it remains dangerously inadequate. While
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/high-risk-ai-models-need-military-grade-security/
5 months ago
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Fear culture still rules Pentagon acquisitions. What can leaders do to fix it? Listen here:
warontherocks.com/2025/07/solv...
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5 months ago
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Despite recent top-down orders and reforms, fear of getting it wrong keeps the Pentagon locked in old acquisition habits. What would it take to break free? Listen here:
open.spotify.com/episode/5sIx...
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5 months ago
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As NATO works to restore the alliance’s technological edge, Europe’s tech entrepreneurs are experiencing a new innovation renaissance.
warontherocks.com/2025/07/time...
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Time to Supercharge Europe’s Innovation Ecosystem - War on the Rocks
Commercial drones repurposed within weeks, counter-drone systems developed and tested in real time — Ukraine’s battlefield innovations have shown that
https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/time-to-supercharge-europes-innovation-ecosystem/
5 months ago
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America’s defense edge comes from tapping all strengths, not narrowing the field.
warontherocks.com/2025/07/tita...
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Titans, Trailblazers, and Translators: Forging a Unified Defense Industrial Paradigm - War on the Rocks
A foundational, and increasingly dangerous, tension defines the American defense enterprise. It is a narrative that pits industrial mass against digital
https://warontherocks.com/2025/07/titans-trailblazers-and-translators-forging-a-unified-defense-industrial-paradigm/
5 months ago
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