Cogs of War
@cogs0fwar.bsky.social
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https://warontherocks.com/category/blogs/cogs-of-war/
Chinese AI models have flooded the global market this year. Americans are building on them and handing over code, strategy, and sensitive data along the way.
warontherocks.com/2026/04/chin...
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China’s AI Is Spreading Fast. Here’s How to Stop the Security Risks
In late 2024, Chinese models accounted for one percent of global AI workloads. By the end of 2025, that figure had surged to 30 percent. Alibaba’s Qwen
https://warontherocks.com/2026/04/chinas-ai-is-spreading-fast-heres-how-to-stop-the-security-risks/
about 18 hours ago
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The U.S. military is racing to field faster command systems. But if it doesn’t control the definitions inside them, it may be accelerating decisions it doesn’t actually understand.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-...
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The U.S. Military Risks Letting Contractors Define How It Sees the Battlefield
In the 1964 black comedy Dr. Strangelove, an emergency war plan called “Plan R” allows an unhinged U.S. Air Force commander, Jack Ripper, to launch a
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-u-s-military-risks-letting-contractors-define-how-it-sees-the-battlefield/
1 day ago
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For years, the hardest part of building software for the Army was getting it approved. Now that barrier is lower, and a different problem is taking its place.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/ever...
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Every Soldier a Software Builder: Governing the Army’s New Digital Workforce
Over the past decade, the Department of Defense has tested internal software development through efforts like the Air Force’s Kessel Run, the Army
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/every-soldier-a-software-builder-governing-the-armys-new-digital-workforce/
3 days ago
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Congress spent a century protecting contractors from patent suits. That protection may not extend to the neoprimes driving dual-use innovation.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-...
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The Pentagon Wants Dual-Use Innovation. Patent Law Might Punish It.
In 1918, the U.S. Supreme Court held that government contractors could be sued for patent infringement even if their products were manufactured
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-pentagon-wants-dual-use-innovation-patent-law-might-punish-it/
6 days ago
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An extraordinary cybersecurity risk has spread across the national security community. It did not arrive through a breach, but through the tools everyone is already using.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/your...
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Your Defense Code Is Already AI-Generated. Now What?
Somewhere in a defense ministry, someone is drafting a policy on whether to permit AI-assisted software development in defense procurement. The sentiment
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/your-defense-code-is-already-ai-generated-now-what/
7 days ago
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As demand for new ships grows, America’s largest military shipbuilder is rethinking how they get built.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-...
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The Next Transformation of U.S. Shipbuilding
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Eric Chewning, the executive vice president of maritime systems and corporate strategy at HII. As HII is
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-next-transformation-of-u-s-shipbuilding/
9 days ago
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America needs more counter-drone technology, and quickly. Industry leaders join the pod to discuss how to create integrated defenses and what it will take to field them at scale and deliver results. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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14 days ago
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Before concluding that operational art is in decline, planners should ask whether the problem has outgrown the lens they are using.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/mili...
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Military Operational Thinking in an Age of Artificial Intelligence
In recent years, as AI has begun to enter military planning and operational design, a persistent unease has surfaced among practitioners. Even with
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/military-operational-thinking-in-an-age-of-artificial-intelligence/
15 days ago
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What happens when people who build the tools of war can claim its moral weight without bearing its risks?
warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-...
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The Danger of Vibe Patriotism in Defense Tech
At conferences, in pitch decks, and increasingly in public writing, “service” is increasingly being used to describe the work of startup founders,
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-danger-of-vibe-patriotism-in-defense-tech/
17 days ago
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After meetings with industry and continued calls to surge missile production, Washington’s plan is to build more. That will not be enough.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/maga...
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Magazine Breadth — Not Just Depth — Is Key to Munitions Industrial Base Resilience
Is America running out of missiles? The attacks on Iranian forces and leadership have had a devastating impact on the regime, but the repeated salvos of
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/magazine-breadth-not-just-depth-is-key-to-munitions-industrial-base-resilience/
21 days ago
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Years of mass drone attacks have stress-tested Ukraine’s air defenses, resulting in a system that has held up under relentless pressure. The United States and its allies should be paying attention.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/less...
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Lessons from Ukraine for Defending Gulf Airspace from Shaheds
In early March 2026, U.S. Central Command confirmed the first U.S. fatalities of the Iran conflict. A drone strike at Port Shuaiba in Kuwait killed six
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/lessons-from-ukraine-for-defending-gulf-airspace-from-shaheds/
22 days ago
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America has world-class scientific data. What it lacks is the infrastructure to turn it into strategic power.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/ai-r...
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AI-Ready Biodata Is America’s Next Strategic Infrastructure
There is little doubt in Washington that AI is a powerful technology that will help determine which country rules the 21st century. Policymakers from the
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/ai-ready-biodata-is-americas-next-strategic-infrastructure/
24 days ago
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History shows Congress rarely funds defense requests in full. What happens when the shortfall runs into the hundreds of billions?
warontherocks.com/2026/03/why-...
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Why a $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Request Might Slow the Pentagon’s Reform Efforts
On Jan. 7, 2026, President Donald Trump announced: I have determined that, for the Good of our Country, especially in these very troubled and dangerous
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/why-a-1-5-trillion-defense-budget-request-might-slow-the-pentagons-reform-efforts/
28 days ago
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Threats to commercial space systems are expanding in scale and variety. Some of the most serious never leave Earth.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/why-...
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Why Satellites Fail — and How to Protect Them
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Jean-François Morizur, the CEO and founder of Cailabs, a French company focused on ground-to-satellite laser
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/why-satellites-fail-and-how-to-protect-them/
30 days ago
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The Genesis Mission unifies America’s exascale infrastructure for AI development. It did not unify the allies who are supposed to build those systems together.
warontherocks.com/2026/03/wash...
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Washington Built the AI Infrastructure AUKUS Needs — Then Locked Allies Out
The Manhattan Project brought allied scientists to Los Alamos because winning required pooling allied scientific capacity. Today, as Australia
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/washington-built-the-ai-infrastructure-aukus-needs-then-locked-allies-out/
about 1 month ago
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Consumer neurotechnology is advancing quickly. The military has long tested its potential. What is holding it back?
warontherocks.com/2026/02/all-...
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All Too Quiet on the Western Neuroenhancement Front
“A merry little surge of electricity piped by automatic alarm from the mood organ beside his bed awakened Rick Deckard.” The characters in Philip K.
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/all-too-quiet-on-the-western-neuroenhancement-front/
about 1 month ago
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AI now produces balanced lines of effort, evenly weighted objectives, and fully populated task lists on demand. What it cannot produce is judgment.
warontherocks.com/2026/02/ai-i...
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AI Is Being Misunderstood as a Breakthrough in Planning. It’s Not.
In the age of AI, the scarcest resource in headquarters is no longer time. It is, rather, the willingness to say no. Artificial intelligence is moving
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/ai-is-being-misunderstood-as-a-breakthrough-in-planning-its-not/
about 1 month ago
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Agentic AI is beginning to move from Pentagon pilots into operational environments. That means confronting degraded networks, legacy workflows, and acquisition timelines that lag the technology. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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about 1 month ago
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Precision warfare depends on position, navigation, and timing. All now operate inside a highly contested electromagnetic spectrum that is cheap to disrupt and hard to defend.
warontherocks.com/2026/02/when...
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When GPS Goes Dark: Building a Force That Navigates from Orbit to Seabed
GPS denial is no longer a theoretical future threat. It is the environment in which modern forces increasingly operate. China has invested heavily in
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/when-gps-goes-dark-building-a-force-that-navigates-from-orbit-to-seabed/
about 1 month ago
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For thirty years, fielding timelines have only stretched longer while the Defense Department has pursued acquisition reform. Why does reform fail to translate into speed?
warontherocks.com/2026/02/the-...
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The Greatest Threat to Acquisition Transformation Is Fear
The Department of Defense’s acquisition and sustainment culture is pathologically risk-averse. The greatest threat to acquisition transformation is not
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/the-greatest-threat-to-acquisition-transformation-is-fear/
about 1 month ago
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The Pentagon wants speed, AI dominance, and industrial discipline. Without clear benchmarks and ownership, reform could mean more uncertainty for the firms it depends on.
warontherocks.com/2026/02/will...
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Will These Four Defense Innovation Reforms Improve Industry’s Lot?
When everyone is accountable, who is actually responsible? I can’t help but think of this question as I consider the flurry of new top-down activity on
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/will-these-four-defense-innovation-reforms-improve-industrys-lot/
about 2 months ago
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The current U.S. biodefense model assumes threats shaped by biology’s constraints. AI-driven tools allow those constraints to be engineered away.
warontherocks.com/2026/02/biod...
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Biodefense Blind Spot: Why Washington Confuses Pandemics with Bioweapons
The next great biological threat may not begin in a wet market, a jungle, or a laboratory accident. It may begin on a laptop with a commercially available
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/biodefense-blind-spot-why-washington-confuses-pandemics-with-bioweapons/
about 2 months ago
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Each budget cycle raises the same underlying question about how the force should judge its investments. Force design demands judging weapons by value in war, and the Pentagon isn’t there yet.
warontherocks.com/2026/02/beyo...
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Beyond the Missile: A Cost-Per-Effect Blueprint for the Future Force
Should the United States buy more destroyers, or would the money be better spent developing bases, munitions, or software? These are the kinds of
https://warontherocks.com/2026/02/beyond-the-missile-a-cost-per-effect-blueprint-for-the-future-force/
about 2 months ago
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A major drone bill from Capitol Hill aims to build the capacity to manufacture drones at scale. Rep. Pat Harrigan joins the show to discuss how it will work and how it squares with the way America fights. Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762?v...
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about 2 months ago
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As biological threats get faster and cheaper, the United States is dismantling its fastest countermeasure.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/defe...
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Defending Against the Next Bioweapon: the mRNA Imperative
Modern synthetic biology and AI represent both medicine’s greatest breakthrough and warfare’s most terrifying evolution. In this new landscape, where
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/defending-against-the-next-bioweapon-the-mrna-imperative/
2 months ago
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The defense industrial base is typically defined by its prime contractors, but its real vulnerabilities lie below the surface.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/at-a...
2 months ago
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When lower-tier suppliers lack money or spare capacity, pushing the primes won’t make weapons arrive faster.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-...
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The Primes Aren’t the Real Bottleneck in U.S. Weapons Production
In 2021, a single explosion in Minden, Louisiana, sent shockwaves across the U.S. defense industrial base. For nearly two years, the nation’s only
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-primes-arent-the-real-bottleneck-in-u-s-weapons-production/
2 months ago
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The U.S. military still owns the depots that sustain its force. Increasingly, it is designing a system that sidelines them.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-...
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The Organic Industrial Base and the Risks of Competing Against Ourselves
When I was in middle school, I ate lunch every day with the same group of boys. Most of us brought the same brown-bagged peanut butter and jelly
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-organic-industrial-base-and-the-risks-of-competing-against-ourselves/
2 months ago
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When strategists argue about unmanned surface vessels, the most important question often goes unasked. Are these ships, or are they munitions?
warontherocks.com/2026/01/ship...
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Ships or Munitions? Clarifying the Discussion on Unmanned Surface Vessels
Many strategists, myself included, believe that unmanned surface vessels could be part of an approach to help the U.S. Navy maintain an edge over its
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/ships-or-munitions-clarifying-the-discussion-on-unmanned-surface-vessels/
2 months ago
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No one owns the full journey from problem definition to procurement in commercial space engagement — and startups pay the price.
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-front-door-problem-in-national-security-space/
2 months ago
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In future conflicts, a human will likely still approve a military action. But if an AI system decides which options appear, what remains of command judgment?
warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-...
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The Triage Trap: When AI Speed Replaces Command Judgment
A targeting screen fills with structures, heat signatures, and a rapidly closing window. Aircraft have only minutes of fuel left when an AI highlights a
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/the-triage-trap-when-ai-speed-replaces-command-judgment/
3 months ago
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For generations, historians have framed the Peloponnesian War as a story of battlefield innovation. Thucydides emphasized something else.
warontherocks.com/2026/01/what...
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What Thucydides Really Thought About Technology and War
This exclusive Cogs of War interview is with Bret C. Devereaux, an ancient military historian and Teaching Assistant Professor in the Department of World
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/what-thucydides-really-thought-about-technology-and-war/
3 months ago
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The politics were complicated, and the costs and tradeoffs were real. Roosevelt opened the new year in 1941 on familiar terrain.
https://warontherocks.com/2026/01/fdrs-message-on-the-defense-industry-for-the-new-year/
3 months ago
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Defense innovation and industry sparked no shortage of ideas this year. These were the arguments readers returned to most.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/most-read-cogs-of-war-articles-of-2025/
3 months ago
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The AI debate inside the Pentagon is often framed as evolution or revolution. Is the military focused on being ready, or just on being early?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Case for Caution: Why the U.S. Military Shouldn't Organize Around AI… Yet
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense and Congress. Please also read the first,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-case-for-caution-why-the-u-s-military-shouldnt-organize-around-ai-yet/
3 months ago
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In space competition with China and Russia, how much the United States can lift and where it can put it still shapes power on Earth.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/at-a...
3 months ago
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Manhattan and Apollo worked because America chose to build, not just discover. Quantum will fail if it is treated differently.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Genesis Mission and Quantum Technologies
Editor’s Note: This is the fourth article in a four-part series exploring quantum technologies and industrial policy. Please also read the first,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-genesis-mission-and-quantum-technologies/
4 months ago
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The defense sector has tested the limits of additive manufacturing. Now it has to confront what actually drives production at scale.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/hybr...
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Hybrid Manufacturing: The Case for Agile Factories
Editor’s Note: This is the second in a series exploring the modernization of defense manufacturing. Please also read the first: “The Additive
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/hybrid-manufacturing-the-case-for-agile-factories/
4 months ago
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Defense's vision for additive manufacturing is bold. Does reality match the hype?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-...
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The Additive Manufacturing Mirage in Defense
Editor's note: This is the first article in a two-part series exploring additive manufacturing. The Pentagon has poured unprecedented funds into additive
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/the-additive-manufacturing-mirage-in-defense/
4 months ago
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America’s edge depends on talent, ideas, and long bets, many of which originate in the university system. What does that ecosystem look like today? Listen here:
pod.link/1818133762/e...
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4 months ago
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Another ship program ends the same way: overspent, overdue, and unfinished. Will the Navy take its lessons seriously this time?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/afte...
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After the Constellation-Class: Lessons of the Navy’s Latest Shipbuilding Debacle
At a moment where many Navy shipbuilding programs are stalling, the Constellation-class guided missile frigate stands out as the most behind schedule, the
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/after-the-constellation-class-lessons-of-the-navys-latest-shipbuilding-debacle/
4 months ago
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The policy world may be lining up behind more agile portfolio management, but the committees that hold the purse haven’t moved an inch.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/acqu...
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Acquisition Reform vs. Congress: Who Will Win?
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law -Article I, Section 9, Clause 7, U.S. Constitution Weeks ago,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/acquisition-reform-vs-congress-who-will-win/
4 months ago
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The Small Business Innovation Research program is in limbo. The data points to a system that rewards insiders, while the innovators it was built for struggle to get a foothold.
warontherocks.com/2025/12/deca...
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Decades of Lost Potential in Defense Research and Development
America's greatest national security threat is an enemy born from and nurtured by the Pentagon: crippling bureaucracy. It starves the oxygen from good
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/decades-of-lost-potential-in-defense-research-and-development/
4 months ago
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An AI model that’s ethical on the battlefield may be corrosive across the other instruments of power. What happens to gray-zone competition when those boundaries start to erode?
warontherocks.com/2025/12/oper...
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Operating AI in the Gray Zone: Drawing Clear Lines Before They Blur
Editor’s Note: This is the third in a series exploring key AI policy choices faced by the Department of Defense & Congress. Please also read the first
https://warontherocks.com/2025/12/operating-ai-in-the-gray-zone-drawing-clear-lines-before-they-blur/
4 months ago
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Washington is betting on innovation while competitors are betting on compliance. Right now, compliance is winning.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/how-...
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How Washington Is Losing the AI Race No One Is Tracking
Spain — a NATO ally and founding member of the European Union — chose a Chinese company to manage its law enforcement wiretap systems. The €12.3 million
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/how-washington-is-losing-the-ai-race-no-one-is-tracking/
4 months ago
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Congress designed a bill to keep advanced chips from China. Why is the Trump administration trying to bury it?
warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...
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The White House Risks Squandering Its Own AI Leadership
The White House is reportedly lobbying Congress to kill the GAIN AI Act. If accurate, this represents one of the more baffling policy reversals of the
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-white-house-risks-squandering-its-own-ai-leadership/
4 months ago
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Future AI agents can fuse sensor data, predict adversary tactics, and cue fires. What they can’t do is break out of stovepipes on their own.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/stov...
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Stove-Piped Systems Will Strangle Advanced AI in the Cradle
Imagine deploying groundbreaking AI technologies — like machine learning and large language models — within defense organizations, only to confine them in
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/stove-piped-systems-will-strangle-advanced-ai-in-the-cradle/
4 months ago
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Modernization isn’t just about fielding more systems. It’s about making sure they’re actually ready when it counts.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/repl...
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Replicator 3 Should Be the Sustainment Revolution
Under the Arizona sun, mothballed aircraft glisten in perfect rows at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. In the brackish calm of the James River, reserve ships
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/replicator-3-should-be-the-sustainment-revolution/
4 months ago
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Slick marketing helps defense startups find investors and partners. It also helps America's adversaries map future capabilities.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/are-...
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Are New Defense Companies Giving Away Sensitive Info Through Marketing?
“Loose lips sink ships.” It was catchy, memorable, and above all, true. That wisdom feels incompatible with Silicon Valley’s culture and business model,
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/are-new-defense-companies-giving-away-sensitive-info-through-marketing/
5 months ago
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The secretary’s speech made the case for speed and reform. The system will only deliver it if budget law, training, and congressional trust evolve with it.
warontherocks.com/2025/11/acqu...
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Acquisition Transformation: How to Make it Last
There are plenty of elements to praise in Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s acquisition transformation announcement last week. The emphasis on speed and
https://warontherocks.com/2025/11/acquisition-transformation-how-to-make-it-last/
5 months ago
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