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Week 14. The stakes are high. I’ve got some starts and sits. I also picked my favorite bets for the college conference championships and some Super Bowl dark horses. Friday’s TLFL: YT: youtu.be/iPLIi5TrC6s Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

In The Lab is live in an hour. Follow @FBOverExpected for the Twitter stream. You can also check it out on the Twitch and Kick channels. I'm researching your toughest fantasy calls, live. Drop them in the chat, and I'll help you find an answer. Links ⬇️

Streams are back. I'll be live tonight on In The Lab at 4:45 on the Football Over Expected Twitter, Twitch, and Kick. I'm researching your toughest fantasy calls, live. Drop them in the chat, and I'll help you find an answer.

Initial rankings for Week 14 are live. Want the late-week updates? Subscribe to the Football Over Expected Substack and get the Friday and Saturday update sent directly to you. shorturl.at/V2bog

My first set of Week 14 rankings drops tomorrow. Subscribe below to get them in your inbox. Updated versions will go out on Friday and Saturday. open.substack.com/pub/football...

Since Week 7, Jameson Williams has finished with zero fantasy points twice. He’s the WR14 in Half-PPR over that span, and tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown in PPG with 12.8. Since Week 9, Williams is the WR3 and 10th in PPG with 15.3.

Entering Week 14, Jacoby Brissett now has as many top-12 quarterback finishes (6) as Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, and Jaxson Dart.

A Bryce Young peak, De’Von Achane keeps on keeping on, and Troy Franklin ghosts. It’s all in this week’s Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. For @footballguys.com www.footballguys.com/article/2025...

I’m back. I’m looking at a wild weekend in college football, a waiver vibe check, and players destined for fantasy titles. Tuesday’s TLFL: YT: youtu.be/TaIHVKqVrCU Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

Rome Odunze averaged 14.8 Half-PPR PPG from Weeks 1-6. He was the WR7 through six games. Since Week 7, he's the WR51, scoring 7.2 PPG. Despite six end zone targets since Week 9, he's caught one touchdown. He's also up to 357 incomplete air yards over that span.

In Samaje Perine's return, Chase Brown played 58.8 percent of Cincinnati's snaps, his smallest share since Week 8. His share of third-down snap share dropped from 84.6 percent in Week 12 to 21.1 percent in Week 13. He still totaled 22 opportunities and 0.7 Half-PPR points per opportunity.

Lamar Jackson's -0.68 expected points added per dropback in Week 13 was the second-worst figure of the week, behind only Max Brosmer. Over his last three games, Jackson's averaging -0.43 expected points added per dropback.

Since making his season debut in Week 8, Christian Watson is the WR11 in Half-PPR, averaging 10.9 points per game. He's handled a target share north of 30 percent in each of the last two games, including 33.3 percent on Thanksgiving. 9 of his 10 tgts in Week 13 came on attempts of 10+ air yards.

From Weeks 1-8, Dallas Goedert was the TE3 in Half-PPR points per game with 12.3. Since Week 9, he's the TE35 with 4.1 PPG. He played 88.2 percent of the snaps in Week 13 and 93.1 percent in Week 12. He logged target shares of 11.8 and 5.1 percent in those games, respectively.

Saquon Barkley's 2.7 rushing yards after contact per attempt is tied with Tyrone Tracy Jr. for the lowest total among running backs with at least 100 carries. He averaged 2.9 in Week 13. For reference, Barkley averaged 3.4 YACo/att. last season.

I’m launching Football Over Expected next week. No novel about what that means. I tend to ramble. If you're interested, everything is linked in the next post. Podcast returns Tuesday as The Lean from the Lots. Streams are back on Thursday on Twitch and Kick as In The Lab.

Jahmyr Gibbs goes scorched Earth, Another Lamar Jackson landmine, and George Pickens might earn a blank check. It’s all in this week’s Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. For @footballguys.com

Podcast episodes, streams, and daily clips will be back in time for the fantasy playoffs starting December 1. Names and creative choices will change. The guy behind it all will not. I’m excited for you to see what I’ve been working on.

Sean Tucker’s Carrying Act, A Shot of Jameson, and Michael Wilson Was a Week-Winner. It’s all in this week’s Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. My latest for @footballguys.com www.footballguys.com/article/2025...

The Bills stumble in Vice City, JSN was crafted in a lab to win fantasy titles, and garbage time warriors at quarterback. I covered it all in this week’s Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. For @footballguys.com: www.footballguys.com/article/2025...

I’m taking a little break from my podcast, daily videos, and weekly streams to revamp my approach. I want my content above all else to be useful and entertaining. I feel like my current strategy is missing the mark and I want to fix it. right. 1/2

The Standard For All Shootouts, The Wrecking Dal Stops Swinging, and Other-Worldly Kickers. All of that, and then some, on this week's Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. My latest for @footballguys.com www.footballguys.com/article/2025...

It’s never a bad idea to invest in contributors on really good offenses. Tory Horton presents that opportunity this week.

Were there A’s on this week’s report card? Yes. Were there F’s? Also yes. I’m bummed about it too, okay? Tuesday’s TGFFS YT: youtu.be/sSOaDjg7EA8 Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

Chimere Dike’s role continues to expand. The Titans will need his ability after the catch against the Chargers.

Our pup Sunny needed a veteran presence, so we brought Macie home today. She’s been a real glue girl since she entered the building. Roster’s probably gonna hold a two for a while.

There will be few get-right opportunities as good as Cincy for Caleb Williams and the Bears' red zone offense.

I guess the answer was no. Dolphins were horrendous in the red zone (-1.71 EPA/play on six plays). Regressed against the Blitz (-0.54 EPA/pass on nine plays, +0.09 on 14 in Week 8). The tripping call and Malik Washington fumble were brutal beats. The TNF Curse lives on.

Kimani The Wrecking Dal is in a great spot to keep swinging against the Titans.

I've got a new Friday seg called It Could Be So Simple. I'll give you information from each matchup that could decide outcomes. Also, my favorite starts. As is tradition. Friday’s TGFFS YT: youtu.be/xpAZ9bwGUGw Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

The show is live. Dubs are imminent. YT: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4EU... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

One more hour. I’m getting you ready for Week 9 at 6:45 ET. YT: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4EU... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

Week 9 starts today. Get ready. I’ll be live at 6:45 ET leading up to kickoff. Bring me your pre-TNF dilemmas. No stream tomorrow, but I’ll be back to the normal schedule next week. YT: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4EU... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

Tua Tagovailoa threw for three of his four touchdowns in Week 8 against the blitz. Can he build on the momentum on TNF?

Troy Franklin’s role continues to grow. There’s a path to more big performances down the stretch.

James Cook hasn't regressed, the Caleb Williams conundrum, and Cam Skattebo will be back. It's all in this week's Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. For @footballguys.com: www.footballguys.com/article/2025...

The Bengals may have found a dynamic duo. Semaje Perine deserves some waiver consideration this week.

Week 8 brought me some crushing losses. I’m sure you felt it, too. We won on the report card. So that’s good. Let’s decompress with some waiver wire targets for Week 9. Tuesday’s TGFFS YT: youtu.be/gTD_8rctk_w Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

Wrote about Sun Devil legend Cam Skattebo in this week's Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares. This is a little sample. Check out the full entry when the article drops tomorrow.

Tezzy Tuddies majored in scoring. The Saints are in for a rough day.

The Bills haven’t been able to limit explosive runs. They’ll test any bye week solutions against Rico Dowdle.

The show is live. Talking all of your burning fantasy questions for Week 8 now. YT: www.youtube.com/live/MK4rCbs... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

One more hour. Throw your Week 8 fantasy questions at me 7:30 ET. YT: www.youtube.com/live/MK4rCbs... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

The last-second fantasy calls are the ones that’ll keep you up at night. Need a second opinion? I’ll be live at 7:30 ET tonight. Bring me your Week 8 lineup dilemmas. YT: www.youtube.com/live/MK4rCbs... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

I wish someone loved me as much as Shane Steichen loves play action. …anyway, Michael Pittman’s play-action targets are a beautiful byproduct.

Byemageddon is upon us. I’ve got six guys I’m leaning on to survive. We’ll find out if the brutality is too much to overcome. Plus, a new sketch. What more could you want? Friday’s TGFFS YT: youtu.be/8AIRB5gfOBI Apple: shorturl.at/wsnE2 Spotify: shorturl.at/Rgkoc

The show is live. Let’s talk Week 8. YT: www.youtube.com/live/mGE6nW1... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

One more hour. We’re getting ready for TNF at 6:45 ET. YT: www.youtube.com/live/mGE6nW1... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...

The Chargers and the Vikings start Week 8. Some might call this Byemageddon. I'm definitely calling it that. Let's find a way to survive. Bring me your questions before the game tonight at 6:45 ET. YT: www.youtube.com/live/mGE6nW1... Twitch: www.twitch.tv/greatfantasy...