There are three events happening today of enough significance to document publicly. There are more than three, of course, but here are three things to watch that at least keep you informed as to what's going on. 1. is settler violence in Israel opening a potential third front of the war. 🧵

One of the most interesting informational metrics to me lately is Facebook laugh-react ratios Case in point

"You know how to gain a victory, Hannibal, you do not know how to use it." -Maharbal (Carthaginian cavalry commander) to Hannibal after the battle of Cannae Consider Hannibal Barca, son of Hamilcar. (🧵)

we had everything

Reductive theories that gloss over the principal-agent problem start to run into problems when the agent is corrupt, senile, and you're pretty sure he's bombing Iran to cover over his involvement in crimes with Jeffrey Epstein though you can't prove it. www.patreon.com/posts/153391...

Asking the question "Is MAGA in its cringe era?" and, relatedly, "Is supporting Trump no longer cool?" presuppose that there is some point at which being a Trump supporter was cool, and not cringe, and the truth of the matter is that this point has never existed. 1/9

For a citizen consumer of intelligence reviewing the status of Operation Epic Fury as of Day 17, March 16 2026, trends and patterns fall into four buckets: www.patreon.com/posts/153223...

For anyone on the fence about joining

It would be the most natural thing in the world to engagement-farm off of "FIVE THOUSAND MARINES GOING TO IRAN!!!". Plenty out here doing that. In the context of war with the most dangerous adversary our nation has faced in some time that's irresponsible, I'd argue. Here's what it really means. 🧵

On the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a frankly ordinary-looking white dude stepped off a flight from Istanbul in Bogotá and directly into an Interpol Red Notice activated by federal prosecutors in SDNY. That was, in fact, an FSB officer named Denis Alimov from Center 795. 🧵

Let's talk about the Iranian drone threat on California. This was interesting if not plausible before the war. The problem with it now, however, is that it is stale and altogether implausible, and interesting if harmless engagement-farming using Iranian military tech is no longer tolerable. 1/5

Hold aside how you feel about the current President - and, believe me, just look at my profile on here, that's a LOT in my case. If you *don't want your nation to lose a war* from a sense of ideologically agnostic patriotism, there is serious cause for concern with American strategy in Iran. 1/2

*while aiming a $5 million missile at a $20,000 drone* LET ME SHOW YOU COWARDS WHY WE DON'T HAVE HEALTH CARE

Bottom line up front, I concur with the "self-terrorism" analytical framework identified in @timothysnyder.bsky.social's March 8 piece, "The Desire for Terror", and present multiple causal pathways by which such an attack on the homeland could lead to invocation of emergency power laws. 1/3

Meanwhile, in the Strait of Hormuz: "On March 9, Panama-flagged cargo ship Guan Yuan Fu Xing was the latest to make it safely through the Strait of Hormuz, two days after changing its destination to “CHINA OWNER” via its AIS transponder." - Straits Times, Mar 10 2026

I'm going to go ahead and predict that the strike on the school in Minab is going to turn out to have been the result of AI-generated, patterned error www.patreon.com/posts/loss-p...

🤦‍♀️ It's not my place to tell people how to brand but maybe change the name of the "PEN1S" drone before you sell it to the Gulf states

Earlier today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a statement suggesting that the United States had requested assistance with anti-drone warfare. The statement, in full, is below. I think a few items of context shedding some light on this should be read. 🧵

I was going to let this sit; it has great sourcing, but it's unfalsifiable like a conspiracy theory. Two red flags changed that: 1. Trump mentioning Iran & election security together, and 2. the draft EO declaring another national emergency around election security www.patreon.com/posts/exclus...

ok so this is complicated, but, both of these are real but unrelated, and the screenshot is obviously fake

DNI Gabbard is at the intersection of two crises: 1. a full-scale air war against Iran and 2. an unprecedented federal campaign to seize domestic election materials Her role in both raises questions about the integrity of American intelligence and democratic governance heading into the midterms.

Gotta admit, that's pretty rad. www.patreon.com/posts/arctic...

The answer to the question "what will happen in the Iran war" seems to boil down to a three-way race between destruction of Iran's missiles, expenditure of U.S. & Israeli air-defense assets, and preservation of Iran's existing missiles. www.patreon.com/posts/iran-w...

Bro

The relative low yield suggested by the intactness of nearby buildings and the extraordinary precision involved suggest extremely advanced targeteering capabilities that are the signatures of only two nation-states, both of which were involved in this series of strikes.

🤦‍♀️

Great job, Department of War, you're really doing it!

George Chidi's piece in The Guardian dropped today, and if you've been reading what I've written since early February, you're going to have that uncanny experience where a major news outlet arrives at a conclusion you've already seen mapped out in detail. Here's a key part that's not in it. 1/2

I'm quoted in The Guardian today on the legal mechanism that could let Trump declare voting machines off-limits before November. The very next sentence after my quote says experts think it "would likely be unsuccessful." I agree with that.

Ukrainian dance instructor, mother and sniper Tetiana Khimion's loadout.

About three hours ago, a Washington Post article dropped that significantly raises the threat level on the election-disruption pathway I've been warning about. 1/2

The conflict between Anthropic and the Pentagon is taking place against the backdrop of a global arms race to build the weapons of the next war - fought not by people, but rather by thinking machines we create to kill for us. www.patreon.com/posts/way-we...

Time for another "You Saw It Here First" post. Today, Feb 25, Greg Sargent in The Atlantic goes over Senator Schiff's newest report discussing small-arms and small-arms accessory spending by ICE, largely drawn on publicly visible ICE contracts on USASpending. 🧵

From the #NAFO viewpoint, I think the really interesting thing in today's disinfo survey is that X users given the algo feed were 7.4% less likely to hold a positive view of Zelensky, and exposure to it increased pro-Kremlin attitudes by 0.12 SDs. That is no bueno www.patreon.com/posts/platfo...

I think I'm going to make memes instead of watching the state of the union.

Join the Army with an Option 40 contract and, you have, optimistically, a 1/2, more likely 1/3 chance of joining the 75th Ranger in 7-10 months. ICE takes 47 days in a "highly compressed" timeline and issues you a weapon with about 2.5 years of food for a homeless veteran (~$2,190/yr) on it.

You can't prebunk what you don't know yet (this is what I'd normally do) so this far ahead of tonight's State of the Union, it's probably a good time to get some general principles out there. 1/4

Does current U.S. immigration policy constitute 'ethnic cleansing'? SHORT ANSWER: Yes. LONG ANSWER: www.patreon.com/posts/on-cur...

Cutting Russian access to Starlink is a standout military success story that more people should be aware of. www.patreon.com/posts/cuttin...

seeing a lot of this out in disinfo-land, but it's interesting that *they never show you the actual video*

NEW - a comprehensive analysis of American secret law in the context of the warrantless home entry by ICE, DHS HUMINT collection programs on American soil, the justification for military action in Venezuela, the El Paso laser incident, and the Fulton County raid www.patreon.com/posts/suprem...

At least Russia can win gold medals in poor hot takes

The really interesting thing about it is what it *doesn't* say www.patreon.com/posts/sound-...

What does the end of a ten year civil information war look like? I think we're seeing it. www.patreon.com/posts/beginn...

The Supreme Court handed down a decision on tariffs this morning, and the newspaper version is, it's a 6-3 ruling, holding that IEEPA doesn't authorize the President to impose tariffs. The analytically relevant version for tracking threats to elections is considerably more granular. 1/2

So how're you folks liking those restrictions on steel and aluminum imports? Good? Good.

There are a few things our country is unquestionably still world-class at, and one of them, you'd think, is bombing Iran. As of Feb 19 2026, I don't think we're 100% there though. Full post here; detailed probability assessments and sources & methods for subscribers www.patreon.com/posts/on-war...

EO 13848 - Trump's "Foreign Interference" emergency order, renewed thru Sept 2026 - is the most underappreciated election disruption instrument in play. IEEPA + undefined "interference" + functionally unreviewable presidential discretion = major threat scenario. www.patreon.com/posts/means-...

It's just as I predicted. The Fulton County ballot-raid warrant was a soup sandwich. And neither the warrant nor Fulton County's Rule 41(g) motion mention ANY reason for the Director of National Intelligence to be there. www.patreon.com/posts/fulton...

Called it. The Fulton County raid warrant is a soup sandwich, y'all. Fulton County's latest filing is utterly dismantling it and I am HERE FOR IT 😂🤣 Full analysis coming up, for now, here's the ZebraDuck bit. I noticed this too in my write-up. 🧵