The institutional inertia in this country is staggering. We have underinvested in renewables and built less than a third of recommended fuel reserves. We have failed both energy security and transition #auspol

The criticism of Trump as ignorant doesn’t cut it. He has the cognition of a toddler #auspol

The reason we have high energy prices is specifically because we have not invested enough and not invested quickly enough in renewables, ageing coal plants, and the selling off of gas is the reason why we have high power prices, and those two things are fossil fuels #auspol

The reason we’re experiencing any potential shock whether it be price shocks and potential supply shocks for oil it’s because we haven’t taken seriously enough our renewable potential and stayed reliant on fossil fuels #auspol

Matt Canavan blaming Labor for oil shocks is ridiculous. He spent years blocking EVs, renewables, and energy diversification on behalf of the fossil fuel industry. If he’d succeeded less, Australia would be far less exposed to global oil price shocks today #auspol

Joyce should know One Nation is a grievance party. So why is he trying to pose as a moderating force against Pauline Hanson? Joyce was Deputy PM for two terms and achieved nothing. Hanson’s been in politics for ~30 years and achieved nothing they are more arguing over grievance #auspol

Barnaby Joyce served two terms as Deputy Prime Minister the second most powerful office in the country and did nothing to strengthen Australia’s fuel security. Now he “regrets” it #auspol

Underestimating the impact of a war around the Strait of Hormuz the most critical oil chokepoint on Earth is breathtaking ignorance. Trump is a profoundly ignorant man pretending to understand global strategy, and everyone else would be stuck paying the price for his stupidity #auspol

Trump says a war with Iran will end when he “feels it in his bones.” This is the same guy who keeps bragging about passing the Montreal Cognitive Assessment the basic cognitive screening where you draw a clock. War strategy by vibes from a man proud he passed the dementia test #auspol

If oil hits $200, direct inflation could jump ~4%, and once spillovers hit transport, food, and tradeables the surge could reach ~8%. A shock that large could trigger a housing correction, yet even then Australian homes would still sit far beyond what incomes can support #auspol

This chart compares today’s inflation path with the 1970s oil shock era. The warning is a second inflation wave driven by energy shocks. If stagflation returns and housing only falls ~20%, Australia would still be stuck with prices far beyond incomes #auspol

MacroBusiness argues a $200 oil shock could trigger stagflation and push Sydney and Melbourne house prices down about 20%. Even after a fall that size, homes would still sit around 10–11× incomes. That is how far Australia’s housing market has detached from affordability #auspol

Labor screamed integrity in 2022. Now we have record secrecy, a corruption watchdog with nothing to show, and housing outcomes worse than the Coalition. The moral superiority was just campaign marketing. Australia might genuinely have been better off under Peter Dutton #auspol

If the NACC cannot land Robodebt, then Albo’s real fraud was overselling accountability he never meant to deliver. Labor built the integrity branding, failed the test, and now hides behind process while victims get nothing. Worse than a Liberal because he pretended to be better #auspol

Clare O’Neil admitted in 2023 that uncapped temporary migration was driving huge problems. Since then Labor has let the temporary population blow out even further. They diagnosed the disease, gave a speech, and then kept feeding it #auspol

This is not skilled migration. It is a extreme temporary intake that does not fill core shortages, adds housing pressure, and funnels people into capped hours, underemployment, or grey market work. Labor is protecting a broken volume model, not Australians #auspol

Thomas Duke to CBA and Kieran Ingrey to GRACosway in back to back moves tells you exactly what Labor is. Not a party of humble bureaucrats or union saints, but another insider machine feeding banks and lobbyists just like the Coalition #auspol

Labor loves pretending its machine is just earnest bureaucrats keeping the country running. Spare me. Marles’ former adviser is now in lobbying, O’Neil’s former policy chief landed at CBA, and another Marles staffer went to Thales. This is a revolving door, not a civic monastery #auspol

Glad Mike Burgess is “comfortable” clearing visas for non-citizen Iranian athletes, while Australian children are left to rot in foreign ISIS detention camps. Security when it’s politically convenient, indifference when it’s inconvenient. That’s not principle. That’s selective morality #auspol

If the West says Iran is a terror state and existential threat, then suddenly fast tracking visas for Iranian athletes while Australian children rot in ISIS camps exposes the hypocrisy. Security panic when convenient, humanitarianism when it looks good. That’s not principle. That’s politics #auspol

Australians are poorer than they were a decade ago. Real wages stuck at 2013 levels. Housing crisis exploding. Labor’s response is more defence spending to satisfy the US. At this point Albo is just Dutton with better PR #auspol

If oil prices surge due to a Strait of Hormuz disruption the RBA may not be hiking rates at all. Instead Australia could face emergency rate cuts as an oil shock crashes economic growth and employment #auspol

If the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous for shipping companies many tankers simply will not enter. Insurance and security risk alone can halt energy flows without any formal blockade #auspol

Oil markets are behaving similarly to early COVID reactions when markets initially underestimated the scale of disruption before global systems suddenly shut down #auspol

The risk scenario discussed is not just higher petrol prices. It is the combination of supply shock, hoarding behaviour and governments restricting exports to protect their own economies #auspol

Australia is highly exposed to fuel shocks because national fuel reserves are extremely small. A major global disruption could deplete domestic supply quickly if panic buying begins #auspol

When oil supply collapses countries stop exporting and keep fuel for themselves. That turns an energy shortage into a geopolitical crisis because global oil trade itself begins to break down #auspol

In an extreme supply shock oil might not just reach $150 per barrel. The price required to rebalance demand could be far higher depending on how quickly economies must shut down consumption #auspol

If oil shortages persist markets will not adjust gradually. Prices would need to rise enough to destroy demand rapidly which historically means recession level price spikes #auspol

The current Persian Gulf oil disruption is estimated at about 17 million barrels per day. That is roughly seventeen times larger than the peak Russian supply shock during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine #auspol

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly fallen by about 18 million barrels per day leaving roughly 10 percent of normal volumes moving. That is one of the largest supply shocks ever seen in the oil market #auspol

Most of our domestic refineries actually closed under liberal governments but no let’s just keep blaming labor for macro economic issues #auspol

A majority of Americans do not support war with Iran, yet Tony Abbott is riding harder for the US than many Americans themselves. Meanwhile Labor is supposedly the side that is “out of touch.” The political theatre writes itself #auspol

Potentially looking at $10 a litre for fuel or because Israel is holding God knows what over Trump’s head #auspol

The world is facing a major oil supply shock while Australians face record rent, collapsing housing affordability and the lowest rental vacancies in modern history. A system already stretched to breaking point is about to be stress tested #auspol

Energy shocks spread through everything. Fuel rises, freight rises, food rises. But Australian wages are still roughly stuck at 2013 levels in real terms while rents are the highest ever recorded. That gap cannot hold forever #auspol

Oil is surging toward crisis levels while Australia has some of the worst housing affordability on record. Vacancy rates are near historic lows and rents keep rising. Add an energy shock and the system starts to crack #auspol

Markets across Asia are plunging as oil surges. Meanwhile Australians are dealing with rents up more than 40 percent in five years and wages that have barely moved in a decade. When global shocks hit a broken domestic economy the pressure explodes #auspol

Oil shocks push up fuel, transport and food costs across the entire economy. Australia is entering that shock with stagnant wages, record rents and vacancy rates around crisis levels. This system cannot sustain another squeeze #auspol

Oil markets are now losing roughly 20 million barrels a day due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The 1979 oil shock that triggered global recession only removed about 4–5 million barrels a day. This crisis could be far bigger #auspol

Gulf states are among the richest countries on Earth. If they are being targeted because they align with the US, why is Australia expected to help fight their wars from the other side of the planet? Ask America, Europe, or Turkey first. Australia is not the world’s security contractor #auspol

Albanese holds the largest single party majority in modern history while real wages have barely moved in a decade. Instead of focusing on living standards, he lines up behind US strikes. Empire first, Australian pay packets second. That is the choice he just made #auspol

Australians are dealing with rent stress, weak productivity growth, and fragile consumer confidence yet the Prime Minister’s instinct was to step into a volatile foreign conflict rather than stay disciplined and focused on the economy #auspol

The Guardian reports “at least $30bn” to build the Osborne submarine yard, with Albanese announcing a $3.9bn “down payment.” For a working family paying $650 a week in rent and watching grocery bills climb, that scale of spending feels distant from daily pressure #auspol

Anthony Albanese says Aukus is in everyone’s interests. But Congress is openly canvassing not delivering boats. So we are pouring $30bn into a yard that could end up building what exactly. Optimism is not a procurement strategy #auspol

$30bn for a submarine shipyard. $3.9bn “down payment.” No confirmed completion date. No guarantee the US will even deliver subs. Labor calls it nation building. Voters might call it blind faith with a blank cheque attached #auspol

The Coalition reuniting was inevitable. The Nationals poll ~3% and exist to lock in a few rusted-on rural seats. But the Coalition has lost cities to Teals and ground to One Nation. Even a multi-party bloc can’t fix that. The path back is structural, not tactical #auspol

Sydney is now the second most unaffordable housing market in the world. Labor should be ashamed. A country that sells the myth of a fair go while pricing people out of shelter is broken. Chris Minns has done nothing on housing and overreaches on political communication instead #auspol

Labor’s IR reforms are a fabrication. Same job, same pay does not apply to award workers, some of the lowest paid. Awards legally lock in wage suppression through classifications. The policy mainly benefits FIFO, mining, and energy workers #auspol

Purchasing power and real wages are back at 2011 levels. Rent is up 43% in five years. Labor has one of the largest lower-house majorities it has ever had, and instead of reform it is burning time and political capital on fights that deliver no material improvement for the working class #auspol