Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 535 🧠📊 I have completed a new Intelligence Brief analysing al-Naba Issue No. 535, the Islamic State’s weekly magazine. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/intelligen...

🧠 Executive Intelligence Briefing 📍 Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): February –April 2026 In complex security environments, the problem is rarely the lack of information. The problem is integration. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/executive-...

Structured analysis doesn’t stop at criticism. Following the Red Cell challenge, I’ve published a Blue Team Response: 📊 Recalibrated probabilities 🎯 Conditional triggers 🛑 Escalation thresholds 🔎 Refined confidence levels www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/blue-team-...

I’ve released a Red Cell Notes review of the al-Qaeda 2026 analysis. This adversarial stress test challenges: 🔍 Core assumptions ⚠️ Escalation probabilities 🧩 Leadership strength vs. insecurity 📡 Affiliate amplification risks www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...

Relegitimizing Jihad. I’ve published a full Cognitive Domain Assessment examining: 🧠 Ontological framing ⚖️ Moral positioning 🔥 Emotional activation 🎯 Behavioral licensing 🧭 Organizational anchoring www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/cognitive-...

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #150 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 9 – 15 February. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/intelligen...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 534 🧠📊 New Intelligence Brief based exclusively on primary-source exploitation and a multi-source analytical approach (OSINT, IMINT, SOCMINT, Digital HUMINT). www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

"Islamic State in Africa — Strategic Threat Outlook | January 2026". 📊 Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here:  www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

"Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — Strategic Threat Outlook | January 2026”. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/harakat-al...

“Mali: Ethno-Community Structures, Local Power Architecture and Security Implications.” www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/mali-ethno...

Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | January 2026 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast.

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #149 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 February. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | January 2026”. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jnim-strat...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 533 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

🔹 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Intelligence Briefs | Strategic Outlook / January 2026 📊 January 2026 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/tehrik-i-t...

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #148 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 25 – 31 January. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #148 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 25 – 31 January. 💻This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 532 🧠📊 I have completed a new Intelligence Brief analysing al-Naba Issue No. 532, the Islamic State’s weekly magazine. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

I’ve just completed an analysis on a topic that is still widely underestimated: the decentralized use of UAVs by tech-adaptive jihadist actors. ⚠️ www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...

New Intelligence Brief published 🔍 "Modern Warfare: Decentralization of Jihadist Capability and Operational Implications of the UAV Threat". www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/modern-war...

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #145 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 January. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 531 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

My latest analysis for the The Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor is out: “Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah’s Micro-insurgency in Syria”. jamestown.org/saraya-ansar...

My latest analysis for the Jamestown Terrorism Monitor is out: “Muhojir Tactical Leadership duo Arrested in Syria”. jamestown.org/muhojir-tact...

“Red Cell Notes: al-Qaeda’s Cognitive Warfare in the Information Environment”. 🧠 What if counterterrorism remains tactically effective but strategically self-neutralising? Pressure does not always deter. Sometimes, it validates. ⚠️ www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...

“Cognitive Warfare in Jihadist Propaganda al-Qaeda’s Strategic Narrative on U.S. Counterterrorism”. 🌍 The battlefield is not only physical. It is cognitive. 🧠 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/cognitive-...

📍Red Cell Notes If AQAP Wins the Cognitive Fight in Southern Yemen This Red Cell analysis adopts an adversarial cognitive perspective to stress-test prevailing counter-terrorism and stabilisation assumptions. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/red-cell-n...

“Weaponized Narratives and Operational Signalling. AQAP’s Cognitive Warfare in Yemen”. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/weaponized...

🧠 Executive Intelligence Briefing Global Jihadist & Insurgent Threat Assessment Rolling Forecast (30–90 Days): January–March 2026. 🔗 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/executive-...

🔎Intelligence Brief - Eyes on Jihadism | Issue #145 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 1 – 8 January. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 529 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

"Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Risk, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/harakat-al...

"JNIM — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast ➡️ Read the report here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jnim-strat...

"Islamic State in Middle East and Asia — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Operational Trends, Regional Destabilization, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here:  www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

“Islamic State in Africa — Strategic Threat Outlook | December 2025”. 📊 Continental Operational Trends, Risk Assessment, and Forecast. ➡️ Read the report here:  www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

“A year of TTP terrorist attacks. Operational escalation, territorial entrenchment, and the persistence of a national jihadist insurgency in Pakistan (2025)”. TTP in 2025 is not just surviving — it is escalating. Free Access. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-year-of-...

“A year of Islamic State terrorist attacks: resilience without resurgence. High-frequency violence, low strategic return, and the consolidation of Africa as the movement’s core theater”. 🔍 Strategic Outlook www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-year-of-...

Islamic State | 90-Day Threat Forecast (Jan–Mar 2026) ⏱️📊 📌 Decision-oriented forecast for the next 30–90 days. #ThreatForecast #Counterterrorism #IntelligenceAnalysis #SecurityStudies www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

Islamic State | Executive Annual Threat Assessment (2025–2026) 🌍🧠 2025 confirms a clear trend: ➡️ Africa is IS’s main operational centre of gravity ➡️ Strategy prioritises endurance over escalation ➡️ Low-intensity violence sustains long-term pressure www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 528 🧠📊 I have completed a new Intelligence Brief analysing al-Naba Issue No. 528 weekly magazine, based on a multi-source analytical approach (OSINT, IMINT, SOCMINT, Digital HUMINT). www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

🔹 Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Intelligence Briefs | December 2025 📊 December 2025 confirms the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the dominant insurgent actor in Pakistan. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/tehrik-i-t...

New publication | Strategic Outlook / Cognitive Domain Analysis 🧠⚠️ 👉 The full analysis is available here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-narra...

New publication | Cognitive Domain Analysis 🧠⚠️ "From Gaza to Sydney: al-Qaeda’s Globalisation of Cognitive Jihad. Incitement, Lone-Actor Enablement, and Strategic Messaging in a Recent AQAP Media Release". 👉 Full analysis available here: www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/from-gaza-...

🔍 New Intelligence Brief | AQAP & the Cognitive Domain 📄 The full report is available via gated download on my website. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/jihadist-c...

Islamic State | Weekly Intelligence Assessment – al-Naba Issue 527 🧠📊 www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

🧠 Seasonal Incitement, Strategic Signaling Cognitive Domain Assessment of al-Naba’ 527 Editorial. 📊 Full assessment in the Cognitive Domain section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/seasonal-i...

🧠 Islamic State Engineering Persistence IS Cognitive Warfare through al-Naba’ 527 📊 Full analysis in the Cognitive Domain section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/islamic-st...

🔍 A Diffuse and Enduring Threat Strategic Assessment of the Islamic State after al-Naba’ 527 📊 Full analysis in the Strategic Threat Outlook section. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/a-diffuse-...

🧠 Strategic Threat Outlook | November 2025 Ittehad-ul-Mujahidin Pakistan (IMP) Emerging Actor, Operational Trends, and Risk Assessment www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/security-r...

Eyes on Jihadism – Intelligence Brief | Issue #143 Monitoring Jihadist Propaganda | Week 16–23 December This weekly intelligence brief provides structured situational awareness based exclusively on primary jihadist propaganda sources. www.danielegarofalomonitoring.com/p/eyes-on-ji...