The unemployment rate might still be low at 4.2% but the labour market hasn't impressed this year. Employment is up just 103k this year, compared to +282k over the same period last year. If that doesn't pick up soon, a spike in the unemployment rate is inevitable #ausbiz #auspol

The unemployment rate might still be low at 4.2% but the labour market hasn't impressed this year. Employment is up just 103k this year, compared to +282k over the same period last year. If that doesn't pick up soon, a spike in the unemployment rate is inevitable #ausbiz #auspol

In 2025 so far, Australian employment growth has been disappointing. Through July: 2025: +113k 2024: +246k 2023: +265k #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's participation rate was 67% in July and has been hovering around that rate in recent months. Basically, it means that Australia's workforce is more diverse than it's ever been before in terms of gender, age, ethnicity and disability #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in July (from 4.3% in June) #ausbiz #auspol

Industry wage growth ranges from 5% in the utilities sector down to 2.6% in financial & insurance services. Nationally wages rose 3.4% over the past year, with most industries >3% #ausbiz

Australian wages rose by 0.8% in the June quarter and are 3.4% higher than a year ago. By comparison, consumer prices have increased by 2% over the past year.

China's merchandise exports to the US have declined, but China has managed to offset that with exports elsewhere.

According to the RBA's business liaison program, the biggest impediments to productivity growth are the regulatory environment, employee skills & availability and supply chain deficiencies. And yet the debate is dominated by tweaks to tax policy #auspol

The latest economic forecasts from the RBA: Unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged from 3 months ago. GDP growth 1.7% in Dec 2025 (vs 2.1% previously) and 2.1% in Dec 2026 (vs 2.2%). Cash rate is assumed to drop to 2.9% in the Dec quarter next year, compared to 3.6% as of today #ausbiz

They made us wait six weeks, but the RBA finally delivered another rate cut. The timing ultimately won't impact the economy in a meaningful way, but the failure to cut last month is still one of the weirder RBA decisions I've seen. Massive comms blunder, hurt their credibility and for what?

Retail spending has increased 35% since the December quarter 2019. But the volume of goods sold has been broadly unchanged in recent years, due to higher prices. And volume per capita is almost 6% below its peak. So we are spending more, but consuming less #ausbiz

The price of services rose by 3.3% over the past year, compared to a 1.1% rise in the price of goods. That's a good sign that domestic price pressures have eased.

One of my favourite inflation graphs! The RBA has achieved its inflation target over the past decade and they've achieved it by pretty consistently missing the target most years. Undershooting in the years before the pandemic and then overshooting during the cost-of-living crisis.

Trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred inflation measure - has increased by 2.7% over the past year. The result is slightly stronger than the RBA's forecasts from May, but it should dip towards 2.5% next quarter. Is that sufficient for the RBA to cut rates? Perhaps not on its own.

In June: Unemployment rate: 4.3% (from 4.1% in May) Underemployment rate: 6.0% (from 5.9%) Underutilisation rate: 10.3% (from 10%) #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% in June - reaching its highest level since November 2021 - which is perhaps a surprise given that most forward-looking measures of labour demand remain healthy #ausbiz #auspol

Just a bizarre decision by the RBA. They've backed themselves into a corner tying the decision so closely with the quarterly inflation figures. Particularly in an economic environment where backward-looking economic data has rightfully taken a backseat to geopolitical & economic uncertainty.

I've been out of the RBA for 13 years and I could count on one hand how many times I've guessed what the RBA would do incorrectly. The July meeting was one of those times.

Headline monthly inflation eased to 2.1% in May. Lowest level since March 2021. Underlying measures were a bit higher, with the trimmed mean measure at 2.4% and the headline ex. volatile items & travel at 2.6%. Nothing there that'd stop the RBA from cutting rates again if they want #ausbiz

And in the case of apprenticeships, the number of roles advertised is down around 80% from it's peak and has now returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The job market for skilled entry-level roles has shifted, with demand for graduates and apprentices declining considerably over the past two years. While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.

The job market for skilled entry-level roles has shifted, with demand for graduates and apprentices declining considerably over the past two years. While graduate opportunities remain well above pre-pandemic levels, they were down 16% in early 2025 compared to the same period last year.

Australian real GDP per capita fell by 0.2% in the March quarter. Population growth continues to keep us out of recession. Real GDP per capita has now fallen 1.7% from its peak in the June quarter 2022 #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's household saving rate increased to 5.2% in the March quarter. That's the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and it brings the savings rate back to levels that were common in the 2015-19 period #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's economy expanded by 0.2% in the March quarter - another weak result - to be 1.3% larger than a year ago. Growth was concentrated in investment and consumption, with government and exports subtracting from growth #ausbiz #auspol

Australian real GDP per capita fell by 0.2% in the March quarter. Population growth continues to keep us out of recession. Real GDP per capita has now fallen 1.7% from its peak in the June quarter 2022 #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's household saving rate increased to 5.2% in the March quarter. That's the fourth consecutive quarterly increase and it brings the savings rate back to levels that were common in the 2015-19 period #ausbiz #auspol

Over the past year, it's been government spending that has kept the economy afloat. But in the March quarter, it was consumption, investment and inventories that lifted growth, with government spending declining #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's economy expanded by 0.2% in the March quarter - another weak result - to be 1.3% larger than a year ago. Growth was concentrated in investment and consumption, with government and exports subtracting from growth #ausbiz #auspol

Geopolitical and economic uncertainty left the RBA with little choice but to cut rates again. And I'd expect them to cut again when they meet in six weeks time. 25bp wasn't a surprise. I know some thought 50bp was a chance, but the likelihood of that fell considerably over the past month.

Dwelling approvals, as a share of the resident population, were 17.8% below their long-run average in March. We haven't been above the long-term average since October 2021 (and even then it wasn't for long) #ausbiz

Australian dwelling approvals fell 8.8% in March (seasonally-adjusted), after reaching a two-year high in January. Overall, building approvals remain quite low by historical standards, even after jumping by 13.4% over the past year, and certainly not good enough in a housing crisis #ausbiz

Dwelling approvals, as a share of the resident population, were 17.8% below their long-run average in March. We haven't been above the long-term average since October 2021 (and even then it wasn't for long) #ausbiz

Australian dwelling approvals fell 8.8% in March (seasonally-adjusted), after reaching a two-year high in January. Overall, building approvals remain quite low by historical standards, even after jumping by 13.4% over the past year, and certainly not good enough in a housing crisis #ausbiz

The lack of talent in the federal LNP is staggering - both from a politics and policy perspective. It's hard to see it improving given the seats they've lost in the past two elections #ausvotes2025

Peter Dutton has the *full support* of the party room. I'm familiar enough with sport to know they'll knife him within a week #ausvotes2025

I'm *shocked* that Dutton hasn't proven popular in Victoria #ausvotes2025

The ANZ-Indeed Job Ads metric - which I help put together - is one of the most useful metrics for forecasting the unemployment rate, according to the RBA. www.rba.gov.au/publications...

Remarkably the RBA has kept inflation within it's 2-3% inflation target over the past decade ... ... and it's been achieved by consistently missing that target each year 😂 Inflation was consistently too low in the years leading up to the pandemic and consistently too high afterwards.

Service sector prices rose 3.7% over the past year, after rising by 0.8% in the March quarter. It's still a touch higher than I'd prefer - in order to consistently reach the RBA's 2-3% inflation target - but it's certainly heading in the right direction #ausbiz

Annual trimmed mean inflation - the RBA's preferred inflation measure - falls within the RBA's 2-3% inflation target for the first time the December quarter 2021. Trimmed mean inflation was 2.9% over the past year #ausbiz

The major parties blaming each other for the housing crisis is wild. It's a multi-generation crisis and state and federal govts - from both sides - are complicit. They both deserve a F #auspol

Australia's participation rate - the share of the working age population either employed or actively seeking employment - has come down a little after reaching a record high in January #ausbiz

Australia's labour market remains very tight. Unemployment rate: 4.1% Underemployment rate: 5.9% (lowest since August 2008) Underutilisation rate: 9.9% #ausbiz #auspol

Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in March (although it was practically unchanged 4.05% in March vs 4.04% in February). That's consistent with RBA expectations. Employment though has stalled over the past three months, despite rising by 32,300 people in March #ausbiz #auspol

Historic type day on the ASX. #markets #ausecon #auspol

Carnage in financial markets, high levels of economic uncertainty and a suddenly weaker economic outlook makes another rate cut in May all but certain. I'd wager there are a few RBA board members wishing they’d pulled the trigger last week.

It's crazy that it's only been two and a half months.

For years Dutton's been a glorified sock puppet for Gina. The push for nuclear was purely for her benefit. And it's still not enough to please her. The puppet master is upset and that's unlikely to benefit the rest of us #auspol www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...