In our lead story this morning we write that the Ukraine war is becoming increasingly unsustainable for both sides – Russia, too, is reaching the point of exhaustion. www.eurointelligence.com

our lead story this morning is about Germany’s projected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 60-80%. The appetite to agree to more European debt, and the fiscal space that is left, will fall dramatically. eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning, we write about the peace that descended on the Middle East this morning and wonder what will now happen to Iran’s nuclear programme. www.eurointelligence.com

In our briefing this morning, we look at the long-term consequences of the US strike against Iran, and struggle to find any good outcomes. www.eurointellingence.com

Pedro Sánchez is right. The Nato 5% target will over-extend European countries financially, weaken their fiscal position, and ultimately be counter-productive for their security. A fine mess. Our lead story in Eurointelligence this morning. www.eurointelligence.com

Here is my latest column in Eurointelligence on why I no longer support Eurobonds. www.eurointelligence.com/column/goodb...

In the latest edition of our new long-format podcast, our team discusses the geopolitical consequences of the war against Iran. www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts

In our lead story this morning we take wonder about what China and Russia will do in response to US military action against Iran; www.eurointelligence.com

Has von der Leyen just hoisted the white flag in the trade talks with the US with her U-turn on China? www.eurointelligence.com

In our main story this morning we write about the appreciation of the euro and the effect this will have on transatlantic trade, coming on top of the tariffs www.eurointelligence.com

My column in UnHerd on why the West is winning all the battles, and losing all the wars. unherd.com/2025/06/the-...

Our lead story this morning on why risks of a geopolitical catastrophe are higher today than at anytime during the Cold War. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning we write that the OECD has found the answer of what to reform in Germany – finance and fiscal - but the message is not getting through www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning, we write that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second largest reserve asset – so much for the euro taking over from the dollar... www.eurointelligence.com

A column by my colleague Jack Smith in Eurointelligence about the anti-immigration policies of Mette Fredriksen's, the country's social democratic prime minister. www.eurointelligence.com/column/can-t...

In our new longer-format podcast, our team discusses widely underestimated supply chain interdependencies between China, the US and the EU. www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts

European companies are experiencing a massive real exchange rate shock, as evidence mounts that China is diverting trade earmarked for the US into European markets. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning, we write about one important aspect of western sanctions hypocrisy. Some energy policy relationships with Russia have been so deep that some countries, including Japan and France, are struggling to extricate themselves. www.eurointelligence.com

my latest column in UnHerd on Elon Musk. unherd.com/2025/06/musk...

One of the silliest ideas we have heard in a long time is the one that the EU can win a trade war against the US. The EU is not China. www.eurointelligence.com

In our newsbriefing this morning we write that for all the noise, the signals we receive from the Trump administration are clear: the trade tariffs will come; the debt will rise; growth will fall. This is what usually happens before a financial crisis. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning we write about why Geert Wilders blew up the Dutch government, and what he hopes to get from new elections. His gamble might pay off. www.eurointelligence.com

Our lead story this morning is about the absurdity of numerical defence spending targets. The history of numerical fiscal targets should be a cautionary tale. www.eurointelligence.com

here is my latest column for UnHerd on why Lawfare almost always backfires. unherd.com/2025/06/lawf...

In our lead story this morning, we discuss the mindbogglingly large number of avenues Donald Trump has at his disposal to impose trade tariffs www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning, we write about a notable relaxation in Russia’s demands for a peace deal: Russia no longer insists on full control of the four Ukrainian oblasts it previously claimed, and on Ukraine’s de-militarisation. www.eurointelligence.com

my latest UnHerd column: "Trump’s ideal counterpart in a negotiation is a king, a tyrant, or a British prime minister...The European Commission is not a principal agent. It is more like an estate agent. It collects offers for consideration." unherd.com/2025/05/why-...

In our lead story we write that the purpose of Donald Trump’s 50% tariff threat is to make the 20% look good – like we have won something. www.eurointelligence.com

In our latest podcast, our team discusses the elections in Romania, Poland and Portugal, and what it tells us about the far-right. www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts

In our briefing today we discuss the impact of the US budget on the rest of the world. Spoiler: it’s big, but not so beautiful. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning we argue that bond market investors appear complacent about the debt sustainability risks in the euro area. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story, we write about Keir Starmer’s reset, that is maximally toxic politically, and irrelevant economically. Economic success is not about relationships. www.eurointelligence.com

the emerging trend throughout the EU is that the two main political parties are the centre-right and the far-right. That's the over-riding result of yesterday's crop of elections in Europe. www.eurointelligence.com

My latest column for UnHerd is about the AI arms race, and why China is in a better position to win it than the West. unherd.com/2025/05/why-...

In our lead story, we note that the US-China talks will have a broader agenda that just trade. This has important implications for the upcoming US-EU talks. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story we write about what Donald Trump’s assault on US pharma prices could mean for Europe – this is potentially more impactful than a tariff www.eurointelligence.com

Whether Friedrich Merz will fail or succeed will have less to do with yesterday’s events, but whether he is capable of maintaining a strategic focus on reversing Germany’s economic decline. www.eurointelligence.com

Our briefing is morning is about Europe’s chronic lack of preparedness. When Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe was not ready for war. Now it is not ready for peace. www.euroinelligence.com

In our lead story this morning we write about the implications the US-Ukraine minerals will have for Europe. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story this morning we write about how Europe’s stability pact imposes limits on German fiscal expansion. www.eurointelligence.com

My latest column in UnHerd, on why Europe should accept Trump's deal for Ukraine - or a version thereof. unherd.com/2025/04/euro...

Our latest podcast is on why tariffs alone cannot do the heavy lifting to reduce global imbalances. eurointelligence.com/podcasts

Our lead story this morning is about global imbalances, how and why they have arisen, and why they are unsustainable. www.eurointelligence.com

My latest column for UnHerd. On industries that will come back - and on those that won't. unherd.com/2025/04/amer...

In our lead this morning, we write that – from the perspective of the Trump administration – the fall in the dollar’s exchange rate is a feature, not a bug. www.eurointelligence.com

The idea that tariffs will hurt the deficit country more than the surplus country is wishful thinking. In our latest podcast our team discusses the devastating effects Trump's tariffs will have on Europe. www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts

In our latest podcast, our team discusses the massive direct and indirect effects of US tariffs on the EU. www.eurointelligence.com/podcasts

In our briefing this morning we discuss what will come after the dollar as the global reserve currency. Spoiler alert: it won’t be the euro. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead story, we argue that the EU will, by default, end up in the China camp of the global divide on trade. www.eurointelligence.com

In our lead article this morning, we make a case for a decisive ECB rate cut on Thursday as the US tariffs will disproportionately affect the European economy, directly, and indirectly through global supply chain network effects. www.eurointelligence.com